Iran Nuclear Threat Accelerating because of Joe Biden

Gene2memE said:

Is it opposite day?

Because Iran was abiding by the JCPOA (as verified by international inspections) up to the point where the US unilaterally exited the deal. About the worst thing that the Trump administration could level at Iran was that it had not fully revealed past efforts (in the 1990 and up to about 2003) to develop an indigenous nuclear weapon capability. The month before the Trump administration pulled out of the deal, the US State Department confirmed it was abiding by it.

Despite the Trump administration's claims, Iran was meeting its commitments to the deal and was not enriching uranium beyond what was allowed under the agreement. It had cut it's centrifuge capabilities by two thirds, completely reduced its medium enriched uranium stockpile and cut its low enriched stockpile by 97%.

Fast forward to 2023 and Iran has pretty much resumed Uranium enriching activities, to the point where it now in violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Iran has gone from possessing less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium (~3.7%) to producing more than 9kg per month of 60% enriched U235 and has been found to be producing 84% enriched uranium (90% is needed for weapons-grade material).



Which it gets anyway, thanks to trade outside of the US and Europe. Basically because the Trump administration ended nearly decade years of detente and five years of careful international diplomacy, because (and I'm paraphrasing here) Trump got bad vibes from the deal.



The sunset provision were for 10 and 15 years from the signing of the agreement, and weren't killers. In fact and were open to renegotiation under article V of the agreement.

The 10 year provisions allowed Iran to build it's centrifuge capacity back to ~20% of what it was before the agreement from 2025 onwards. From 2030, Iran would have been allowed to develop it's centrifuge capacity but was limited to enrichment levels of under 5% (under it's agreements

Right now, Iran is operating almost 150% MORE uranium centrifuge capacity than it was in 2015. It has, by some estimates, enough capacity to produce uranium for five to six weapons every year.

Same story with enriched uranium. Iran would have been held to a limit of ~200 kg until 2025 and 300 kg to 2030. Instead, Iran now has a enriched uranium stockpile of 4500kg.

One watchdog agency reports Iran has "reached the point at which, within three weeks, Iran might be able to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons" although weaponisation "could take anywhere from several months to a year or more, although the timeframe is uncertain".


Trump withdrawing from the JCPOA pushed Iran RAPIDLY back down the nuclear path. Even if the agreement had fallen apart in 2030 and the sunset provisions hadn't been renegotiated, Iran would be at least a decade behind where it is now in efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran is further along towards nuclear weapons now than it was in 2015.

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mindlight said:

Iran is going to get a bomb at some point not least because China and Russia are now cultivating links. Trump strengthened the motivation for Iran to acquire a bomb and Biden gave them the cash.

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Hans Blaster said:

I don't think it is inevitable that Iran will get a nuclear weapon, though it is likely at this point.

If you're going to make the "US gave Iran cash" claim at least put it on the right president. It's "Obama gave Iran cash." not Biden.

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mindlight said:

Obama removed sanctions completely after 2015 with the Iran deal. Biden kept Trump's sanctions (from the second half of his presidency) in place. However, Iran has boosted its exports during Biden's presidency - mainly to China - to the tune of 1.3 million barrels a day. Maybe it would be inaccurate to say that Biden gave them the money though there was that $10 billion but he has been ineffective in enforcing sanctions on them.

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RDKirk said:

Nobody's going to enforce sanctions against China. At least not for long. They've been thumbing their noses in our faces and treating us like a Third World nation since the mid-90s.

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mindlight said:

The shadow tanker fleets of commodity traders with transponders switched off and in voyage transfers seem to be how this trade is occurring. Officially China says it does not import any but shipments from Malaysia are often from Iran. To be fair to Biden he has been sanctioning individuals and vessels involved in this illicit trade but has not managed to prevent its growing importance for Iranian revenues.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/irans-expanding-oil-trade-with-top-buyer-china-2023-11-10/

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mindlight said:

Iran is going to get a bomb at some point not least because China and Russia are now cultivating links. Trump strengthened the motivation for Iran to acquire a bomb and Obama, Trump (first half of presidency) and Biden all allowed Iran to gain the cash to build them even if nominal sanctions have remained in place under Biden. (EDIT)

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Gene2memE said:

The US sanctions position post the JCPOA is irrelevant to Iran's potential acquisition of nuclear weapons. This is a red herring, immaterial to the actual situation on the ground.

When you adjust for PPP, Iran has a bigger economy than several other nuclear powers - Pakistan, Israel and North Korea. It has all the resources and technology it needs to make nuclear weapons, regardless of whether the US keeps sanctions in place or not.

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Hans Blaster said:

Part of the problem is that there are too many oil exporting nations that should be sanctioned. (Something about resource exporting economies not leading to good internal politics...) If it was just Iran, it would be easier to control.

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