Initial information from fourth dose trial in Israel--"not good enough" against Omicron

[tall73]

Israeli trial, world’s first, finds 4th dose ‘not good enough’ against Omicron

“The vaccine, which was very effective against the previous strains, is less effective against the Omicron strain,” Prof. Gili Regev-Yochay, a lead researcher in the experiment said.

“We see an increase in antibodies, higher than after the third dose,” Regev-Yochay said. “However, we see many infected with Omicron who received the fourth dose. Granted, a bit less than in the control group, but still a lot of infections,” she added.

 

[Hazelelponi]

...

 

[Nithavela]

I think three shots protect enough against serious illness. With a vaccination and maybe a booster, most people will get through an omicron infection with minor symptoms or asymptomatic.

The Omicron vaccine is already being prepared and has been announced to be done in march-ish. So we'll see how that goes. I'll certainly take it as soon as it is available to me, but no more boosters from the old vaccines.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I was skeptical about their attempts to try that...doesn't hurt to try, but their findings kind of confirmed my suspicions about it.

When they had mentioned a 4th dose, my first thought was
"This is like taking an extra dose of last year's flu shot, to try to bolster protection against this year's flu"

I think the fixation on "cases" is likely what sparked this.

Their cases spike like crazy (like everyone else's have)

But their deaths and hospitalizations didn't really follow that pattern.

Their daily average deaths went from 2 to 5, and their ICU admissions went from 142 to 215.

Rushing out a 4th dose seemed more like a "panic-mode" type of reaction.


At a certain point, people are going to have start relying on their immune systems and the t-cell and b-cell immunity the original vaccinations conferred.

"Every time there's an increase, time do another shot" is only going to fly for so long before even the most ardent pro-vaccine people start to become less enamored with the idea.

4 covid shots every 18 months used to be considered a "slippery slope" fallacy by anti-vaxxers when they suggested that may happen. Some nations are apparently trying to prove them right lol.

I would say let's take a deep breath and see what a 3-shot series buys us before racing out to do more at the first sign of a "cases" increase.

From my own personal perspective, I've had 3 shots and 2 infections...I don't intend on getting anymore shots, short of something like a variant specific booster for a new variant (should one arise) with a 25% kill rate.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

The Omicron vaccine is already being prepared and has been announced to be done in march-ish. So we'll see how that goes. I'll certainly take it as soon as it is available to me

Not sure what the variant breakdown is in Germany, but here in the US...I'm expecting the omicron wave to be pretty much wrapped up by March. The places here that were hit early by that variant have already started the swift decline in cases (indicating that it's running out of available hosts).

Where I live in northeast ohio, an Omicron booster in March will likely be a moot point...as the majority of the population here will have already had their "Omicron booster" in the form of an actual Omicron infection.

 

[Nithavela]

Not sure what the variant breakdown is in Germany, but here in the US...I'm expecting the omicron wave to be pretty much wrapped up by March. The places here that were hit early by that variant have already started the swift decline in cases (indicating that it's running out of available hosts).

Where I live in northeast ohio, an Omicron booster in March will likely be a moot point...as the majority of the population here will have already had their "Omicron booster" in the form of an actual Omicron infection.

And yet, in earlier variants, vaccination plus infection offered a lot more and longer lasting protection than just "natural immunity".

I see no reason why this should be different with omicron.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

And yet, in earlier variants, vaccination plus infection offered a lot more and longer lasting protection than just "natural immunity".

I see no reason why this should be different with omicron.

Even the "longer lasting protection" became somewhat of a moot point...Apart from the original strain (which existed pre-vaccine availability), have there been any variants that have remained dominant for a year or more?

If Omicron gets replaced with something else in 4 months, we'll just run into the same thing again at that point as having additional Omicron protection when another variant may be dominant puts roughly where we're at now.

 

[Nithavela]

Even the "longer lasting protection" became somewhat of a moot point...Apart from the original strain (which existed pre-vaccine availability), have there been any variants that have remained dominant for a year or more?

If Omicron gets replaced with something else in 4 months, we'll just run into the same thing again at that point as having additional Omicron protection when another variant may be dominant puts roughly where we're at now.

You mean with the vaccine not protecting well against infection, but still saving lives and preventing severe symptoms?

I think that's good enough for me.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

You mean with the vaccine not protecting well against infection, but still saving lives and preventing severe symptoms?

I think that's good enough for me.

Right, but if that's the goal, then there would be no need to take an Omicron-specific booster in the form of shot #4 in March, correct?

The evidence is still pretty compelling that having the 3-shot series provides more than adequate protection against those severe outcomes you're referring to. (Heck, even the 2-shot series is holding up for the majority of people when it comes to hospitalization and death)

In my state, the majority of people still haven't received their booster yet so most "fully vaccinated" people are un-boosted...I got my booster, but that's because it was free, and I figured it couldn't hurt right? Why have a "moderate case" when you can have a "mild case"...

But the data is still clear that for the majority of people, if preventing death and hospitalization is the chief concern, most people are still fine with just the two-shot series.

Even the WHO is suggesting that countries are applying the "booster-logic" a bit willy nilly...

WHO says no evidence healthy children, adolescents need COVID-19 boosters

The chief scientist for the WHO said:
There is no evidence at present that healthy children and adolescents need booster doses of COVID-19 vaccine, the World Health Organization's chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan said on Tuesday.

Speaking at a news briefing, she said that while there seems to be some waning of vaccine immunity over time against the rapidly spreading Omicron variant of the coronavirus, more research needs to be done to ascertain who needs booster doses.


"There is no evidence right now that healthy children or healthy adolescents need boosters. No evidence at all," she said.

Yet, we have several states pushing boosters for high school students.

I think some people need to come to grips with the reality that "I may get sick again at some point in my lifetime"

 

[Nithavela]

Right, but if that's the goal, then there would be no need to take an Omicron-specific booster in the form of shot #4 in March, correct?

I'd assume that the next big variant will be one originating from Omicron. Sure seems the most likely outcome with the current case numbers. So my guess would be that the Omicron vaccine would also have good chances of being effective against the variant originating from omicron. Certainly better than the chances for the vaccine developed for Alpha.

Why shouldn't I get the Omicron booster? It costs me nothing except a few hours of my time and an ibuprofen pill.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I'd assume that the next big variant will be one originating from Omicron. Sure seems the most likely outcome with the current case numbers. So my guess would be that the Omicron vaccine would also have good chances of being effective against the variant originating from omicron. Certainly better than the chances for the vaccine developed for Alpha.

Why shouldn't I get the Omicron booster? It costs me nothing except a few hours of my time and an ibuprofen pill.

I wouldn't try to stop you, I'm just giving you my perspective on it.

But given how prevalent Omicron has become, it might be worth getting an antibody test to check your titers scores prior to getting it.

If it turns out you already have nucleocapsid & spike antibodies from a recent omicron infection, getting an omicron specific booster may be unnecessary.

I'm kind of with the WHO on this one...given that we know 2-shot and 3-shot regimens are already providing adequate protection for the serious outcomes, we should be focused on giving doses 1 & 2 to poorer countries before we worry about us getting dose #4

 

[hedrick]

I don’t see the US doing fourth shots except maybe for immune compromised people. Even third shots were controversial. I’d guess we’ll recommend one a year, at the same time as the flu shot.

IHME is projecting that the epidemic is effectively over by April, worldwide. Infections will continue like flu, so boosters may be worth doing, but not on the same emergency basis.

 

[Nithavela]

I wouldn't try to stop you, I'm just giving you my perspective on it.

But given how prevalent Omicron has become, it might be worth getting an antibody test to check your titers scores prior to getting it.

If it turns out you already have nucleocapsid & spike antibodies from a recent omicron infection, getting an omicron specific booster may be unnecessary.

I'm kind of with the WHO on this one...given that we know 2-shot and 3-shot regimens are already providing adequate protection for the serious outcomes, we should be focused on giving doses 1 & 2 to poorer countries before we worry about us getting dose #4

I absolutely think that we should be vaccinating the countries where most people didn't have their first dose. We should also greatly increase our production capacities to that effect.

We're going to need a lot more mRNA vaccine production capacities, anyway, considering the broad applications of that technology.