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Harris not leading in a single Battleground State as of Aug 8 - near DNC convention start.

BobRyan

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MSN.com/en-us/politics kamala-harris-not-leading-a-single-battleground-state-in-new-pol -- MSN

"Vice President Kamala Harris is not leading in a single battleground state, according to a new poll.

"The survey, conducted by Navigator Research between July 31 and August 8, showed the Democratic presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump are tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Harris is behind in Arizona and Pennsylvania."

========================================

It is "interesting" because normally even in years where Republicans win the election - rather than Democrats -- the Democrats are ahead in August.

This may just be an "interesting detail" when it is all said and done. But still I notice it.

Even so - I would expect the Democrats to get a significant bump in the polling by the end of their convention. That is the way the pattern goes. But the battleground states will be interesting to watch all the same.
 

JosephZ

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Arizona

Harris 45.6%
Trump 44.4%

Nevada

Harris 44.9%
Trump 44.5%

Michigan

Harris
46.8%
Trump 43.4%

Wisconsin

Harris
47.8%
Trump 44.1%

Pennsylvania

Harris
46.4%
Trump 44.8%

North Carolina

Harris 45.8%
Trump 45.5%

Georgia

Trump
46.6%
Harris 45.9%

 
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AlexB23

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Arizona

Harris 45.6%
Trump 44.4%

Nevada

Harris 44.9%
Trump 44.5%

Michigan

Harris
46.8%
Trump 43.4%

Wisconsin

Harris
47.8%
Trump 44.1%

Pennsylvania

Harris
46.4%
Trump 44.8%

North Carolina

Harris 45.8%
Trump 45.5%

Georgia

Trump
46.6%
Harris 45.9%

Ahh, looks like I am safe to vote for third party in Wisconsin, as Harris has a 3-4% lead in WI.

Bro, I am pretty sure that everyone now knows me as the guy who likes the third party (American Solidarity Party) by now. :)
 
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Ana the Ist

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MSN.com/en-us/politics kamala-harris-not-leading-a-single-battleground-state-in-new-pol -- MSN

"Vice President Kamala Harris is not leading in a single battleground state, according to a new poll.

"The survey, conducted by Navigator Research between July 31 and August 8, showed the Democratic presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump are tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Harris is behind in Arizona and Pennsylvania."

========================================

It is "interesting" because normally even in years where Republicans win the election - rather than Democrats -- the Democrats are ahead in August.

This may just be an "interesting detail" when it is all said and done. But still I notice it.

Even so - I would expect the Democrats to get a significant bump in the polling by the end of their convention. That is the way the pattern goes. But the battleground states will be interesting to watch all the same.

I'd prefer they keep believing in the lie. They're less likely to vote that way. Don't go around pulling out real polling data.
 
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Maria Billingsley

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MSN.com/en-us/politics kamala-harris-not-leading-a-single-battleground-state-in-new-pol -- MSN

"Vice President Kamala Harris is not leading in a single battleground state, according to a new poll.

"The survey, conducted by Navigator Research between July 31 and August 8, showed the Democratic presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump are tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Harris is behind in Arizona and Pennsylvania."

========================================

It is "interesting" because normally even in years where Republicans win the election - rather than Democrats -- the Democrats are ahead in August.

This may just be an "interesting detail" when it is all said and done. But still I notice it.

Even so - I would expect the Democrats to get a significant bump in the polling by the end of their convention. That is the way the pattern goes. But the battleground states will be interesting to watch all the same.
This poll does not reflect what is happening now with Walz on the ticket. Could have a influence.
 
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BobRyan

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Arizona

Harris 45.6%
Trump 44.4%

Nevada

Harris 44.9%
Trump 44.5%

Michigan

Harris
46.8%
Trump 43.4%

Wisconsin

Harris
47.8%
Trump 44.1%

Pennsylvania

Harris
46.4%
Trump 44.8%

North Carolina

Harris 45.8%
Trump 45.5%

Georgia

Trump
46.6%
Harris 45.9%

Harris - under-performing Hillary Clinton by this same time in her opposition to Donald Trump.


https://wharris-is-underperforming-clinton-at-this-point
 
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iluvatar5150

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Harris - under-performing Hillary Clinton by this same time in her opposition to Donald Trump.


https://wharris-is-underperforming-clinton-at-this-point
As I replied in your other thread, their chart does not show her behind Hillary.

1724898173931.png
 
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BobRyan

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from: MSN: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/top-pollster-finds-trump-gaining-momentum-against-harris-with-58-chance-of-winning-2024-race
"Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election have surged in the last month while Vice President Kamala Harris has struggled to find “a 2nd gear,” according to polling guru Nate Silver.
"The data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight revealed Wednesday that his presidential race model now indicates that Trump has a 58.2% chance at winning the Electoral College in November compared to Harris’ 41.6% chance.
“Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote
=====================
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nate-silver-s-election-model-shows-donald-trump-surging
"Despite Vice President Kamala Harris' consistent string of polling victories since entering the 2024 race, Silver's forecast shows Trump having a higher chance of securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win his reelection bid, putting Trump's chances of victory at 58.2 percent as of Wednesday. Harris, in comparison, has a 41.6 percent chance of winning in November, according to the latest Silver Bulletin."
 
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BobRyan

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msn.com/en-us/news/politics/liberal-pollster-predicts-blowout-victory-for-presidential-candidate

"A liberal pollster's latest projection shows Donald Trump securing a blowout victory over Kamala Harris.

"Nate Silver's prediction places the Republican hopeful's chances of winning the electoral college vote at 63.8 percent, compared to 36 percent for Harris.

"Silver's modelling, published on his blog Silver Bulletin, also places Trump ahead in all of the crucial swing states.

"He predicts 312 electoral college votes for Trump versus 226 for Harris in a no toss-up map.

"The figure is a massive upswing on the 227 he won against Biden in 2020 "
 
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Pommer

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msn.com/en-us/news/politics/liberal-pollster-predicts-blowout-victory-for-presidential-candidate

"A liberal pollster's latest projection shows Donald Trump securing a blowout victory over Kamala Harris.

"Nate Silver's prediction places the Republican hopeful's chances of winning the electoral college vote at 63.8 percent, compared to 36 percent for Harris.

"Silver's modelling, published on his blog Silver Bulletin, also places Trump ahead in all of the crucial swing states.

"He predicts 312 electoral college votes for Trump versus 226 for Harris in a no toss-up map.

"The figure is a massive upswing on the 227 he won against Biden in 2020 "
A link from MSN that reveals an article from the Daily Mail is like a rickroll, anymore.
 
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BobRyan

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A link from MSN that reveals an article from the Daily Mail is like a rickroll, anymore.

www.msn.com /news/politics/nate-silver-says-poll-confirms-shift-in-donald-trump-kamala-harris-race



Newsweek



Nate Silver Says Poll 'Confirms' Shift in Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Race​

Story by Flynn Nicholls
• 6h • 2 min read

"Polling analyst Nate Silver has said that a new poll confirms a shift in momentum from Vice President Kamala Harris to former President Donald Trump in the presidential race

"In a Sunday post on his blog Silver Bulletin, Silver analyzed the implications of a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, which had Trump overtaking Harris nationally, leading her by 48 points to 47.

One of the best pollsters in the country has bad news for Kamala Harris," Silver wrote. "It confirms the model's view that there's been some sort of a shift in momentum in the race." According to Silver's polling aggregate model, Harris now leads Trump 48.7 percent to 46.2 percent, a slight drop from her 49.2 percent to 45.7 percent margin just a week earlier."
 
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Pommer

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www.msn.com /news/politics/nate-silver-says-poll-confirms-shift-in-donald-trump-kamala-harris-race



Newsweek


Nate Silver Says Poll 'Confirms' Shift in Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Race​

Story by Flynn Nicholls
• 6h • 2 min read

"Polling analyst Nate Silver has said that a new poll confirms a shift in momentum from Vice President Kamala Harris to former President Donald Trump in the presidential race

"In a Sunday post on his blog Silver Bulletin, Silver analyzed the implications of a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, which had Trump overtaking Harris nationally, leading her by 48 points to 47.

One of the best pollsters in the country has bad news for Kamala Harris," Silver wrote. "It confirms the model's view that there's been some sort of a shift in momentum in the race." According to Silver's polling aggregate model, Harris now leads Trump 48.7 percent to 46.2 percent, a slight drop from her 49.2 percent to 45.7 percent margin just a week earlier."
Who’s paying Nate’s bills these days?
 
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Hans Blaster

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A link from MSN that reveals an article from the Daily Mail is like a rickroll, anymore.
Never going to give you up...

(I feel fortunate that MSN just won't open on my browser.)
 
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