Good Guys with Hands beat Good Guys with Guns

David_S42

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I don’t care all these report and study. What I really care is when I go to a restaurant, the restaurant owner tell me all the “ Good guy with the guns” are dinning. So I have the FREEDOM to dine in the restaurant or go somewhere else. These days I am afraid I am dinning with my family and the guy sitting behind us has a gun and the woman sitting in front us has a gun. When the shooting starts , it is my FREEDOM not to put my family on cross fire. I don’t trust any “Good Guys with Guns” to protect my family.
 
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rambot

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From the study quoted in my next post, here is the someone distress data point of concern:
in fact, controlling for the aforementioned factors of location and school characteristics, the rate of deaths was 2.83 times greater in schools with an armed guard present
My emphasis. ALMOST 3 times greater? Crazy.

I understand why there are certain website with poison well syndrome (ie....you can't really trust anything from them); they exist on both sides of the spectrum. But with that said, it IS important to access these sources IF HTEY CAN PROVIDE SOURCES to back up their claims. Sometimes those places talk about things more midline sources won't address.

So long as they do it with facts and data to support it (like...DIRECT LINKS to studies and PRIMARY sources, not just mentioning it) it doesn't matter how poisoned the well is.
 
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probinson

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There's a sense from your response that the article is attempting to imply something.
I didn't really get that.

But a lot of folks here made salient points, for sure.

The article isn't attempting to imply. It's blatantly stating that "good guys with guns" don't help in mass shooting situations. That's the point the article is trying to make. But there are too many confounders to know if that's actually true.

Even in the JAMA study you've linked, it's pretty clear that the authors have concluded that more guns = bad. The question is, did they conclude that from the data, or did they select the data to arrive at that conclusion?

Any time you read one of these studies, you should keep this in mind (emphasis added);

Giving the same information to multiple scientific teams can lead to very different conclusions, a report published today in Nature shows. And that's exactly why two researchers think scientists should share their data with others — well before they publish.
In this experiment, 29 scientific teams were given the same information about soccer games. They were asked to answer the question "Are dark-skinned players more likely to be given red cards than light-skinned ones?" Some scientists found that there was no significant difference between light-skinned and dark-skinned players, whereas others found a very strong trend toward giving more red cards to dark-skinned players. So, even though a pooled result showed that dark-skinned players were 30 percent more likely than light-skinned players to receive red cards, the final conclusion drawn from this exercise — that a bias exists — was a lot more nuanced than it likely would have been if only one team had conducted the analysis.

What's interesting here is that 29 research teams given the same data came to vasty different conclusions. When someone presents you with a "scientific study" as "proof" of anything, you should have questions. What was the selection criteria? What confounders were identified and how were they controlled/adjusted for? What was the methodology of the study? What data was not considered and/or excluded in the study?

The first thing I noted about the JAMA study was in the methods, where it stated how they selected which shootings they would include in their analysis.

They state (emphasis added);

We examined each identified case where more than one person was intentionally shot in a school building during a school day or a person arrived at school with the intent of firing indiscriminately (133 total cases) from 1980 to 2019 as reported by the public K-12 School Shooting Database.

Here are two qualifiers that raise questions. They've excluded any shootings where only one person was intentionally shot. Why? One could hypothesize that shootings where only one person was shot may be more likely to end more quickly if an armed officer is present. Excluding those shootings seems... questionable. Secondly, they included only those who were "firing indiscriminately". So a shooting where a person or group of people was being targeted is likewise not included in this analysis for some reason. Neither of those things (only one victim, whether or not the shooting was targeted or not) has anything to do with whether the presence of an armed rescue officer was beneficial, so it should cause us to question why those incidents were excluded from the analysis.

I have no idea if having armed officers in schools is helpful or not (I suspect it varies largely dependent upon the capabilities/competencies of the resource officers in question), but this study reads more like propaganda than any kind of objective scientific analysis.
 
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Tuur

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Suicide is horrible - the act is the issue more so than the instrumentation. Death by asphyxiation is the second highest method of ending a life - shall we regulate rope?
The first person I personally knew who committed suicide didn’t use a firearm. A second possible suicide didn’t as well. I think I’ve known exactly two who did use a firearm to commit suicide. That’s close to US statistics of methods used.
 
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Tuur

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Hemp is regulated. Guns not so much my friend
Hemp? Rope these days is more often made of synthetic material.

As to which is more heavily regulated, hemp rope fiber or firearms, first try to buy a hemp rope in the US, then try to buy a firearm.
 
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Tuur

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The rubric of "good guy with a gun" is always really convinient though because EVERY gun own is a good guy with a gun until he commits an illegal act. Then he's suddenly a bad guy who should never had had a gun because they don't use it responsibly.
That sounds almost like a Calvinism vs Arminianism argument. The actual measure is the percentage of who can legally use a firearm and own to commit a crime to those who can legally use and own a firearm yet who don’t. You have to make that distinction to filter out repeat offenders, who in the US are already prohibited from owning a firearm.

As already stated, the problem with the study is that it says nothing about the percentage of people carrying firearms where these incidents have taken place. If most don’t, then it favors someone stopping a shooter with their bare hands because they have no weapon available.
 
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rambot

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Most folk aren't addressing the idea that many of the shootings are happenning in certain places.
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Now texas looks to be a pretty busy place (or at least a place with some big incidents). There are no gun free zones and gun ownership is high there.
I don't have the time to look too closely into the relationship between "gun free zones", "states with large numbers of mass shootings" and "where bare handed take downs occurred".
 
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Brihaha

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Hemp? Rope these days is more often made of synthetic material.

As to which is more heavily regulated, hemp rope fiber or firearms, first try to buy a hemp rope in the US, then try to buy a firearm.
Yeah, you're probably right. It's been quite a while since I bought either.
 
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hislegacy

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Most folk aren't addressing the idea that many of the shootings are happenning in certain places.
View attachment 324078
Now texas looks to be a pretty busy place (or at least a place with some big incidents). There are no gun free zones and gun ownership is high there.
I don't have the time to look too closely into the relationship between "gun free zones", "states with large numbers of mass shootings" and "where bare handed take downs occurred".
Link?

Parkland shooting - gun free zone
Colorado shooting - gun free zone
 
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Tuur

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Most folk aren't addressing the idea that many of the shootings are happenning in certain places.
View attachment 324078
Now texas looks to be a pretty busy place (or at least a place with some big incidents). There are no gun free zones and gun ownership is high there.
I don't have the time to look too closely into the relationship between "gun free zones", "states with large numbers of mass shootings" and "where bare handed take downs occurred".
Out of curiosity, I checked Atlanta, doing a search of Atlanta mass shooting 2022. One story that came up was a "targeted" shooting in August that killed 2, injured 1. Another was 11/27/22 where one person was killed and five injured after an "altercation."

Question: Do these meet the definition of mass shooting as most here understand it, or is it something else? Neither seems to have been random. By the definition used in this map, a hit in the 1970s that took two people I knew would be categorized as a mass shooting. So would the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre.
 
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rambot

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Out of curiosity, I checked Atlanta, doing a search of Atlanta mass shooting 2022. One story that came up was a "targeted" shooting in August that killed 2, injured 1. Another was 11/27/22 where one person was killed and five injured after an "altercation."

Question: Do these meet the definition of mass shooting as most here understand it, or is it something else? Neither seems to have been random. By the definition used in this map, a hit in the 1970s that took two people I knew would be categorized as a mass shooting. So would the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre.
"Mass shooting" data definitions are provided every time I've seen a data set is presented. They don't differentiate past data based on motivation, or which degree of murder. Why should "our understanding" be relevant when the data set has a definition provided?
"Our understandings" is a phrase that basically refers to bias. Having a problem with how to define "mass shooting" seems more like a desire to halt discussions as the dozens of different definitions make no meaningful difference; so long as the definitions are applied equally across the board.

Do you think if the definition changed immensely, suddenly America wouldn't be seen as the aberration amongst developed nations that it is regarding gun crimes?

Just to clarify though: There were MORE than just 2 mass shootings in Atlanta in 2022 so far right? You just chose those 2 to illustrate your point right?
 
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Tuur

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"Mass shooting" data definitions are provided every time I've seen a data set is presented. They don't differentiate past data based on motivation, or which degree of murder. Why should "our understanding" be relevant when the data set has a definition provided?
"Our understandings" is a phrase that basically refers to bias. Having a problem with how to define "mass shooting" seems more like a desire to halt discussions as the dozens of different definitions make no meaningful difference; so long as the definitions are applied equally across the board.
It is a type of bias known as spin. If people think that mass shooting means a random event, including those that are non-random presents an inaccurate picture. Do you consider the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre a mass shooting, even though it was a mob hit?

Just to clarify though: There were MORE than just 2 mass shootings in Atlanta in 2022 so far right? You just chose those 2 to illustrate your point right?
Your maps shows two circles at Atlanta. I did a search for Atlanta mass shooting 2022, and the two cited came up. Is that problematic?
 
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rambot

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It is a type of bias known as spin. If people think that mass shooting means a random event, including those that are non-random presents an inaccurate picture. Do you consider the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre a mass shooting, even though it was a mob hit?
You're complicating it and allowing your personal biases to creep in.
Does it meet the definition as given in the study?

Your maps shows two circles at Atlanta. I did a search for Atlanta mass shooting 2022, and the two cited came up. Is that problematic?
Not at all. Atlanta has always been characterized as a hyperviolent place. I'd expect a higher number is all.
 
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Tuur

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You're complicating it and allowing your personal biases to creep in.
Does it meet the definition as given in the study?


Not at all. Atlanta has always been characterized as a hyperviolent place. I'd expect a higher number is all.
So you do consider the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre a mass shooting?

As to violence in Atlanta: You can have violence, including murder, without multiple shootings involved. And with that word comes the point that looks like spin to me: mass shootings to me has the connotations for random shootings. Multiple shootings might superficially seem the same, but I think connotated something that isn't random. The Saint Valentine's Day Massacre was a hit with multiple shootings. Technically so is the one I remember from the 1970s that had two involved.

Anyway, if you have a high murder rate and rate of violent crime (and I haven't checked the violent crime data as I type this), you can what you've called hyperviolent without mass shootings or multiple shootings.

I found this from CBS News: Murder map: Deadliest U.S. cities

Atlanta is listed as 22. But note the example: the shootings at three massage parlors in 2021. That I would categorize as a mass shooting, and that had eight killed total. Checking on this introduced another term shooting spree.

That gives up three terms to hash out:

Mass shooting.
Multiple shooting.
Shooting spree.

I have a feeling that the definitions of each has a bearing on this. Such as that hit from the 1970s I recall that involved two I knew. It wasn't random. How would we categorize this?
 
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rambot

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So you do consider the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre a mass shooting?

As to violence in Atlanta: You can have violence, including murder, without multiple shootings involved. And with that word comes the point that looks like spin to me: mass shootings to me has the connotations for random shootings. Multiple shootings might superficially seem the same, but I think connotated something that isn't random. The Saint Valentine's Day Massacre was a hit with multiple shootings. Technically so is the one I remember from the 1970s that had two involved.

Anyway, if you have a high murder rate and rate of violent crime (and I haven't checked the violent crime data as I type this), you can what you've called hyperviolent without mass shootings or multiple shootings.

I found this from CBS News: Murder map: Deadliest U.S. cities

Atlanta is listed as 22. But note the example: the shootings at three massage parlors in 2021. That I would categorize as a mass shooting, and that had eight killed total. Checking on this introduced another term shooting spree.

That gives up three terms to hash out:

Mass shooting.
Multiple shooting.
Shooting spree.

I have a feeling that the definitions of each has a bearing on this. Such as that hit from the 1970s I recall that involved two I knew. It wasn't random. How would we categorize this?
As I've mentioned. Most data sets have their own rubric to define what a mass shooter is. There doesn't seem to be a set standard. For the purposes of one chart, the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre would be considered a mass shooting; perhaps on another chart, it would not.
My point was simply: I use the definition provided in the data set as to whether something is considered a mass shooting.

What isn't necessary is navel gazing what what is the BEST definition that suits EVERYONE'S preconceptions of what is heard when we say the word "mass shooter".

Because doing so allows personal bias to float into the conversation.

By ANY rubric for mass shootings, America has a gun violence problem compared to other developed nations; it doesn't disappear once it changes from 1 death and 3 injuries to 4 deaths and at least 2 injuries.
 
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Tuur

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As I've mentioned. Most data sets have their own rubric to define what a mass shooter is. There doesn't seem to be a set standard. For the purposes of one chart, the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre would be considered a mass shooting; perhaps on another chart, it would not.
My point was simply: I use the definition provided in the data set as to whether something is considered a mass shooting.

What isn't necessary is navel gazing what what is the BEST definition that suits EVERYONE'S preconceptions of what is heard when we say the word "mass shooter".

Because doing so allows personal bias to float into the conversation.

By ANY rubric for mass shootings, America has a gun violence problem compared to other developed nations; it doesn't disappear once it changes from 1 death and 3 injuries to 4 deaths and at least 2 injuries.
The meaning of words and terms is hardly navel gazing. All words have shades of meaning that carry specific connotations. Poets run into this all the time. So do writers and those in advertising. The choice of words can and has been used to manipulate opinion. This is why the meaning of terms here is important. If most take the term mass shooting to mean a random event, then using the term to mean a non-random event is imparting spin on the topic. If people fear mass shootings more than gang violence, characterizing a gang related shooting as a mass shooting might sell newspapers and attract viewers and clicks more than straight-up saying gang related shooting.

Now, why is this important? Because, I think, when most people fear violence, they fear random violence because most people don't belong to gangs and aren't involved in criminal dealings. Gang activities and criminal dealings do seem to involve a higher rate of violence than with the general public, or at least that's the perception. That's why I'm making a distinction here.

I may have already mentioned it, but just like I knew four suicide victims, I've known four murder victims. Two where those killed in that hit in the 1970s. Another was a strangulation, The last was either a strangulation or drowning. Were the two not killed by a firearm any less dead?
 
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rambot

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The meaning of words and terms is hardly navel gazing. All words have shades of meaning that carry specific connotations. Poets run into this all the time. So do writers and those in advertising. The choice of words can and has been used to manipulate opinion. This is why the meaning of terms here is important. If most take the term mass shooting to mean a random event, then using the term to mean a non-random event is imparting spin on the topic. If people fear mass shootings more than gang violence, characterizing a gang related shooting as a mass shooting might sell newspapers and attract viewers and clicks more than straight-up saying gang related shooting.

Now, why is this important? Because, I think, when most people fear violence, they fear random violence because most people don't belong to gangs and aren't involved in criminal dealings. Gang activities and criminal dealings do seem to involve a higher rate of violence than with the general public, or at least that's the perception. That's why I'm making a distinction here.

I may have already mentioned it, but just like I knew four suicide victims, I've known four murder victims. Two where those killed in that hit in the 1970s. Another was a strangulation, The last was either a strangulation or drowning. Were the two not killed by a firearm any less dead?
Ok. While America is stuck on parsing out their terms the rest of the world looks on in horror as they keep slaughtering each other.
 
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