Global Warming---Oops!!

[1Sam15]

Guess you missed the thread here about the scientists claiming that not only is global warming stalled, but we're entering a cooling phase

There is no evidence that I've seen for "cooling".

And it would be the EASIEST THING IN THE WORLD for you to provide this.

It's just one simple number.

Of course you have no earthly idea what that number is or what it means...but that's because you don't know science.

Just one tiny number! You will know it because it starts off with a label like "p<...."


Can you find it?

 

[MachZer0]

There is no evidence that I've seen for "cooling".

And it would be the EASIEST THING IN THE WORLD for you to provide this.

It's just one simple number.

Of course you have no earthly idea what that number is or what it means...but that's because you don't know science.

Just one tiny number! You will know it because it starts off with a label like "p<...."


Can you find it?

There are two ship captains stranded in ice that have seen cooling first hand

 

[Sayre]

2013 confirmed as Australia's hottest year on record

 

[NightHawkeye]

There are two ship captains stranded in ice that have seen cooling first hand

ROTFL ... touche.

 

[USincognito]

I canceled mine once. took the train instead.

Mach Zero's ticket =/= the flight.

 

[USincognito]

Can it get any worse for the Global Warming religionists?

Plagiarism, sourced, false dilemma, irony, straw man, blacklisting, global...

State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

&#8226;The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces during November was record highest for November, at 56.60°F (13.68°C) or 1.40°F (0.78°C) above the 20th century average. The margin of error associated with this temperature is ±0.13°F (0.07°C).

&#8226;November marked the 37th consecutive November and 345th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average temperature for November was November 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985.
&#8226;The global land temperature was the second highest for November on record, behind 2010, at 2.57°F (1.43°C) above the 20th century average. The margin of error is ±0.20°F (0.11°C).​

and

&#8226;The first 11 months of 2013 tied with 2002 as the fourth warmest such period on record, with a combined global land and ocean average surface temperature of 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average of 57.0°F (13.9°C). The margin of error is ±0.18°F (0.10°C).
&#8226;The January&#8211;November worldwide land surface temperature was 1.76°F (0.98°C) above the 20th century average, also tying with 2002 as the fourth warmest such period on record. The margin of error is ±0.38°F (0.21°C).
&#8226;The global ocean surface temperature for the year-to-date was 0.86°F (0.48°C) above average, tying with 2006 as the eighth warmest such period on record. The margin of error is ±0.07°F (0.04°C).​

eta - Gosh, it's almost as if Mach thinks posts disappear into the ether.
From just 3 days ago:

Global warming doesn't seem to be having the effect on climate that we're being told by the global warming religionists

An assertion one can make if one doesn't understand the meaning of "global" and "climate". The "religionists" insult is just silliness and desperation.

Turney also explains the ice situation in this blog posting:
The Spirit of Mawson - One week on

The wind is not unusual but what is unexpected is the major reconfiguration of thick multi-year sea ice to the east of the Mertz Glacier. In 2010, a large iceberg known as B09B, calved from the continent and collided spectacularly with the extended tongue of the Mertz Glacier. The knock-on effect has been that Commonwealth Bay has filled with sea ice (termed &#8216;fast ice&#8217, preventing direct access from the sea to Mawson&#8217;s main hut at Cape Denison. Unfortunately for the AAE, it appears the region has just undergone a massive reconfiguration of sea ice, years after the loss of the Mertz Glacier tongue. This has been revealed by new satellite imagery which arrived today from the AAD/ACE CRC Sea Ice Group in Hobart, Tasmania. The satellite maps show the comparison before and after the event, with deep purple signifying 100% sea ice cover and dark blue, open water. (Note: the outline of the Mertz Glacier tongue is shown on the maps but disappeared following the collision with B09B). Crucially, these images show the extensive, thick multi-year sea ice along the eastern and southern edge of what was the Mertz Glacier Tongue (outlined by a red box) has been blown out in the last week and driven against our position by the persistent southeasterly winds.​

And global warming is having a global effect on the climate.
State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

&#8226;November marked the 37th consecutive November and 345th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average temperature for November was November 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985.​

Global Analysis - November 2013 | State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

&#8226;The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the year-to-date (January&#8211;November) was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F), tying with 2002 as the fourth warmest such period on record.​

and

The globally-averaged temperature across land and ocean surfaces for the first eleven months of 2013 (January&#8211;November) was 0.62°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average, tying with 2002 as the fourth warmest January&#8211;November on record. The average global land temperature for this period also tied with 2002 as the fourth highest on record, at 0.98°C (1.82°F) above the long-term average, while the average global ocean temperature tied with 2006 as the eighth warmest in the 134-year period of record, at 0.48°C (0.86°F) above average.​

bold mine

 

[USincognito]

I have noticed that some people insist on embarassing themselves repeatedly on this matter of global warming.

 

[USincognito]

Guess you missed the thread here about the scientists claiming that not only is global warming stalled, but we're entering a cooling phase

What thread was that? Do you mean the BBC article you posted a few days ago in this thread? Already addresssed, and you never responded.

Did you read the part about the cooling phase we're entering?

Yes, but we probably read it for content and the context of the glaciers you were asked about.

The Earth's temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.

A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.

However, temperatures will again be rising quickly by about 2020, they say.​

There will not be a cooling phase as far as temperatures go. They will remain the same.
The natural cooling will counteract what otherwise would have been warming due to greenhouse gasses
That maintained temperature level will end in 2020 and temps will begin rising again quickly as the natural counteraction to AGW ends.

So. Temperatures are going to stay about where they are. Current temps are causing glacial retreat. The temperature will begin to rise again in 2020.

How exactly was that article supposed to be proof of the glaciers coming back any time soon? Do you even know how glaciers form?

 

[USincognito]

There are two ship captains stranded in ice that have seen cooling first hand

Plagiarism, sourced, false dilemma, irony, straw man, blacklisting, global, cooling phase...

 

[USincognito]

2013 confirmed as Australia's hottest year on record

Noooooo! They don't need to facts or numbers! There's a ship stuck in Antarctic ice. That's good enough!

I posted a story about this back on Jan. 1st. It was ignored by the denialists.
http://www.christianforums.com/t7795748-10/#post64772841
-----------------------------------------

Australia cooler than it would be due to natural influences.

Yep...

Experts see more freakish hot weather

Australia's hottest-ever year, and Canberra's second-hottest year on record, could have been even worse were it not for neutral El Nino conditions and early monsoons, according to weather experts, one of whom described 2013's extremes as "freakish".
----------------
Dr Perkins said the multitude of records broken in 2013 (hottest year, hottest month, hottest day) was made extraordinary by the fact that the El Nino Southern Oscillation index was neutral, with no tendency for the hotter, drier weather typically associated with El Nino summers.

"The last two summers have both fallen as neutral summers, and we've seen quite record-breaking conditions. So if we were to have an El Nino year in one of these two summers it certainly would have seen more amplified extremes," she said. "If it weren't for human-induced climate change, occasionally a record would be broken here or there, but you certainly wouldn't get nearly as many in one year. That's a very freakish thing to have."

While a single hot year did not amount to strong evidence of climate change, she said it would likely be pointed to by climate scientists as "another link in the chain".​

bold mine

... because it's an ENSO neutral cycle, what was a nightmare of a year would have been even hotter if it weren't.

 

[MachZer0]

Plagiarism, sourced, false dilemma, irony, straw man, blacklisting, global...

State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

•The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces during November was record highest for November, at 56.60°F (13.68°C) or 1.40°F (0.78°C) above the 20th century average. The margin of error associated with this temperature is ±0.13°F (0.07°C).

•November marked the 37th consecutive November and 345th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average temperature for November was November 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985.
•The global land temperature was the second highest for November on record, behind 2010, at 2.57°F (1.43°C) above the 20th century average. The margin of error is ±0.20°F (0.11°C).​

and

•The first 11 months of 2013 tied with 2002 as the fourth warmest such period on record, with a combined global land and ocean average surface temperature of 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average of 57.0°F (13.9°C). The margin of error is ±0.18°F (0.10°C).
•The January–November worldwide land surface temperature was 1.76°F (0.98°C) above the 20th century average, also tying with 2002 as the fourth warmest such period on record. The margin of error is ±0.38°F (0.21°C).
•The global ocean surface temperature for the year-to-date was 0.86°F (0.48°C) above average, tying with 2006 as the eighth warmest such period on record. The margin of error is ±0.07°F (0.04°C).​

eta - Gosh, it's almost as if Mach thinks posts disappear into the ether.
From just 3 days ago:


An assertion one can make if one doesn't understand the meaning of "global" and "climate". The "religionists" insult is just silliness and desperation.

Turney also explains the ice situation in this blog posting:
The Spirit of Mawson - One week on

The wind is not unusual but what is unexpected is the major reconfiguration of thick multi-year sea ice to the east of the Mertz Glacier. In 2010, a large iceberg known as B09B, calved from the continent and collided spectacularly with the extended tongue of the Mertz Glacier. The knock-on effect has been that Commonwealth Bay has filled with sea ice (termed ‘fast ice’), preventing direct access from the sea to Mawson’s main hut at Cape Denison. Unfortunately for the AAE, it appears the region has just undergone a massive reconfiguration of sea ice, years after the loss of the Mertz Glacier tongue. This has been revealed by new satellite imagery which arrived today from the AAD/ACE CRC Sea Ice Group in Hobart, Tasmania. The satellite maps show the comparison before and after the event, with deep purple signifying 100% sea ice cover and dark blue, open water. (Note: the outline of the Mertz Glacier tongue is shown on the maps but disappeared following the collision with B09B). Crucially, these images show the extensive, thick multi-year sea ice along the eastern and southern edge of what was the Mertz Glacier Tongue (outlined by a red box) has been blown out in the last week and driven against our position by the persistent southeasterly winds.​

And global warming is having a global effect on the climate.
State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

•November marked the 37th consecutive November and 345th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average temperature for November was November 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985.​

Global Analysis - November 2013 | State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the year-to-date (January–November) was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F), tying with 2002 as the fourth warmest such period on record.​

and

The globally-averaged temperature across land and ocean surfaces for the first eleven months of 2013 (January–November) was 0.62°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average, tying with 2002 as the fourth warmest January–November on record. The average global land temperature for this period also tied with 2002 as the fourth highest on record, at 0.98°C (1.82°F) above the long-term average, while the average global ocean temperature tied with 2006 as the eighth warmest in the 134-year period of record, at 0.48°C (0.86°F) above average.​

bold mine

From Turney's blog:

" what is unexpected is the major reconfiguration of thick multi-year sea ice to the east of the Mertz Glacier."

So much for proving the thinning of ice due to global warming

 

[MachZer0]

What thread was that? Do you mean the BBC article you posted a few days ago in this thread? Already addresssed, and you never responded.


Yes, but we probably read it for content and the context of the glaciers you were asked about.

The Earth's temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.

A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.

However, temperatures will again be rising quickly by about 2020, they say.​

There will not be a cooling phase as far as temperatures go. They will remain the same.
The natural cooling will counteract what otherwise would have been warming due to greenhouse gasses
That maintained temperature level will end in 2020 and temps will begin rising again quickly as the natural counteraction to AGW ends.

So. Temperatures are going to stay about where they are. Current temps are causing glacial retreat. The temperature will begin to rise again in 2020.

How exactly was that article supposed to be proof of the glaciers coming back any time soon? Do you even know how glaciers form?

No, when I mentioned the THREAD I meant a THREAD, not a post

 

[jnxt]

From Turney's blog:

" what is unexpected is the major reconfiguration of thick multi-year sea ice to the east of the Mertz Glacier."

So much for proving the thinning of ice due to global warming

Ice is/was predicted to become thicker in some places (e.g. South Pole) with global warming, because there would be more moisture in the air.

The fact that the models were a tick off in some spots is rather meaningless.

 

[MachZer0]

Ice is/was predicted to become thicker in some places (e.g. South Pole) with global warming, because there would be more moisture in the air.

The fact that the models were a tick off in some spots is rather meaningless.

Unexpected means it wasn't predicted

 

[jnxt]

Unexpected means it wasn't predicted

The globe is rather massive in comparison to a tiny spot to the east of one glacier. Maybe you should review what you are saying, before putting your foot in your mouth.

And you need to review what "prediction" means to rational people, who take evidence seriously. It doesn't mean an immutable decree from an oracle in communication with a god. It means the likelihood that an event will happen. And there is no such thing as 100% certainty of the future. So when one tiny spot on a massive globe is one of only a few spots on a massive globe that didn't change as predicted, that informs rational people that the predictions so far have been solid.

 

[NightHawkeye]

You can explain science and math all you want. What you can't do is get that ship out of the ice, the one that was on an expedition to measure thinning ice

 

[MachZer0]

The globe is rather massive in comparison to a tiny spot to the east of one glacier. Maybe you should review what you are saying, before putting your foot in your mouth.

And you need to review what "prediction" means to rational people, who take evidence seriously. It doesn't mean an immutable decree from an oracle in communication with a god. It means the likelihood that an event will happen. And there is no such thing as 100% certainty of the future. So when one tiny spot on a massive globe is one of only a few spots on a massive globe that didn't change as predicted, that informs rational people that the predictions so far have been solid.

Makes you wonder why the scientist picked that tiny spot to examine thinning ice

 

[jnxt]

Makes you wonder why the scientist picked that tiny spot to examine thinning ice

You are the one cherry picking. Just because you ignore the vast trove of evidence from hundreds of thousands of other areas doesn't mean it isn't there.

Scientists collect evidence. They pick more than just the one spot where they found an anomaly.

 

[jnxt]

You should probably look up what scientists do. They aren't like conservative Christians who use medieval logic. Scientists don't have presuppositions like you do.

So they don't measure "thinning" ice. If they knew with certainty (or thought they knew, because an imaginary god told them so) the ice was thinning, then there would be no need to measure its thickness.

 

[NightHawkeye]

You should probably look up what scientists do. They aren't like conservative Christians who use medieval logic. Scientists don't have presuppositions like you do.

So they don't measure "thinning" ice.

I sense that you haven't googled what scientists actually do ...

Lasers measure thinning ice sheets - Emerging Technology Corporation, Green Division

Using data culled from more than 50,000,000 laser measurements, scientists have assembled a picture of the rapidly thinning glaciers along the coastline of both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. The findings provide valuable information that will improve the accuracy of predictions for future sea level rise due to global warming.

​

If they knew with certainty (or thought they knew, because an imaginary god told them so) the ice was thinning, then there would be no need to measure its thickness.

Yet, some within the scientific community think they already know ... and are only making measurements to improve accuracy.