• Starting today August 7th, 2024, in order to post in the Married Couples, Courting Couples, or Singles forums, you will not be allowed to post if you have your Marital status designated as private. Announcements will be made in the respective forums as well but please note that if yours is currently listed as Private, you will need to submit a ticket in the Support Area to have yours changed.

  • CF has always been a site that welcomes people from different backgrounds and beliefs to participate in discussion and even debate. That is the nature of its ministry. In view of recent events emotions are running very high. We need to remind people of some basic principles in debating on this site. We need to be civil when we express differences in opinion. No personal attacks. Avoid you, your statements. Don't characterize an entire political party with comparisons to Fascism or Communism or other extreme movements that committed atrocities. CF is not the place for broad brush or blanket statements about groups and political parties. Put the broad brushes and blankets away when you come to CF, better yet, put them in the incinerator. Debate had no place for them. We need to remember that people that commit acts of violence represent themselves or a small extreme faction.
  • We hope the site problems here are now solved, however, if you still have any issues, please start a ticket in Contact Us

Global warming debunked

Gawron

Well-Known Member
Apr 24, 2008
3,152
473
✟5,109.00
Faith
Christian
Marital Status
Married
The “debunking” isn’t over yet:

James Hansen’s Former NASA Supervisor Declares Himself a Skeptic - Says Hansen ‘Embarrassed NASA’, ‘Was Never Muzzled’, & Models ‘Useless’

Quote:

Washington DC, Jan 27th 2009:

NASA warming scientist James Hansen, one of former Vice-President Al Gore’s closest allies in the promotion of man-made global warming fears, is being publicly rebuked by his former supervisor at NASA.

Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist, Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, NASA’s vocal man-made global warming fear soothsayer, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen “embarrassed NASA” with his alarming climate claims and said Hansen was “was never muzzled.” Theon joins the rapidly growing ranks of international scientists abandoning the promotion of man-made global warming fears.

“I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that global warming is man made,” Theon wrote to the Minority Office at the Environment and Public Works Committee on January 15, 2009. “I was, in effect, Hansen’s supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results,”

Theon declared “climate models are useless.” “My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit,” Theon explained. “Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy,” he added.

End Quote.

Link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/27/james-hansens-former-nasa-supervisor-declares-himself-a-skeptic-says-hansen-embarrassed-nasa-was-never-muzzled/

Then there is this from J. Scott Armstrong, founder of the International Journal of Forecasting. He states there is “no scientific basis for forecasting climate” and that the IPCC “violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting”. Many of you are always touting the sanctity of science and its methods, how do you react when those methods and principles are violated?

Quote:

Today yet another scientist has come forward with a press release saying that not only did their audit of IPCC forecasting procedures and found that they “violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting”, but that “The models were not intended as forecasting models and they have not been validated for that purpose.”

End Quote. Link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/28/forecasting-guru-announces-no-scientific-basis-for-forecasting-climate/

I found this interesting:

“2. Improper peer review process.

To our knowledge, papers claiming to forecast global warming have not been subject to peer review by experts in scientific forecasting.”

Peer Review, the sacred cow of those who insist we do not question. Some will immediately jump on the “to our knowledge” comment, but the point is made.

Apparently proponents of spending billions, or brazillions, or whatever amount, on combating pacific ocean oscillations or the sun can give over 1400 interviews on the subject but still whine that they were “stifled.”

Quote:

A NASA scientist who said the Bush administration muzzled him because of his belief in global warming yesterday acknowledged to Congress that he'd done more than 1,400 on-the-job interviews in recent years.

James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who argues global warming could be catastrophic, said NASA staffers denied his request to do a National Public Radio interview because they didn't want his message to get out.

But Republicans told him the hundreds of other interviews he did belie his broad claim he was being silenced.

"We have over 1,400 opportunities that you've availed yourself to, and yet you call it, you know, being stifled," said Rep. Darrell Issa, California Republican.

End Quote.

Link: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2007/mar/20/20070320-120435-3136r/

Poor guy.
 
Upvote 0

chaim

Veteran
Jan 25, 2005
1,994
137
✟25,371.00
Faith
Other Religion
J Scott Armstrong seems to be going a bit batty in his old age. Climate modeling is not forecasting in any sense of the word. It uses different models - weather forecasting uses NAM, GFS, GEFS etc which have been optimized for short spin ups and highly detailed output for a couple of days worth of hourly (or shorter) time steps. Climate modeling uses highly coupled models withe lower time-step and grid square resolution but much more stable long term physics. Climate models such as WACCM cannot tell you what the weather is going to be on any specific day. The 'principles of weather forecasting' do NOT apply to climate models. Armstrong of all people should know this.

PS Conservative blogs aren't exactly a good way of impressing a scientifically litterate crowd. They may go over in the politics forum, but the standard is a little higher here.


Edit to add - My mistake, here I was thinking that Armstrong had something to do with meteorology or atmospheric science, nope, he is an economist. He has no education or training in any sort of atmospheric modeling, synoptic scale or otherwise. His beef is that no one applied his principles of economic forecasting to climate models. In other news no one applies the golden rule of architecture to climate models either.
The “debunking” isn’t over yet:

James Hansen’s Former NASA Supervisor Declares Himself a Skeptic - Says Hansen ‘Embarrassed NASA’, ‘Was Never Muzzled’, & Models ‘Useless’

Quote:

Washington DC, Jan 27th 2009:

NASA warming scientist James Hansen, one of former Vice-President Al Gore’s closest allies in the promotion of man-made global warming fears, is being publicly rebuked by his former supervisor at NASA.

Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist, Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, NASA’s vocal man-made global warming fear soothsayer, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen “embarrassed NASA” with his alarming climate claims and said Hansen was “was never muzzled.” Theon joins the rapidly growing ranks of international scientists abandoning the promotion of man-made global warming fears.

“I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that global warming is man made,” Theon wrote to the Minority Office at the Environment and Public Works Committee on January 15, 2009. “I was, in effect, Hansen’s supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results,”

Theon declared “climate models are useless.” “My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit,” Theon explained. “Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy,” he added.

End Quote.

Link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/27/james-hansens-former-nasa-supervisor-declares-himself-a-skeptic-says-hansen-embarrassed-nasa-was-never-muzzled/

Then there is this from J. Scott Armstrong, founder of the International Journal of Forecasting. He states there is “no scientific basis for forecasting climate” and that the IPCC “violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting”. Many of you are always touting the sanctity of science and its methods, how do you react when those methods and principles are violated?

Quote:

Today yet another scientist has come forward with a press release saying that not only did their audit of IPCC forecasting procedures and found that they “violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting”, but that “The models were not intended as forecasting models and they have not been validated for that purpose.”

End Quote. Link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/28/forecasting-guru-announces-no-scientific-basis-for-forecasting-climate/

I found this interesting:

“2. Improper peer review process.
To our knowledge, papers claiming to forecast global warming have not been subject to peer review by experts in scientific forecasting.”

Peer Review, the sacred cow of those who insist we do not question. Some will immediately jump on the “to our knowledge” comment, but the point is made.

Apparently proponents of spending billions, or brazillions, or whatever amount, on combating pacific ocean oscillations or the sun can give over 1400 interviews on the subject but still whine that they were “stifled.”

Quote:

A NASA scientist who said the Bush administration muzzled him because of his belief in global warming yesterday acknowledged to Congress that he'd done more than 1,400 on-the-job interviews in recent years.

James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who argues global warming could be catastrophic, said NASA staffers denied his request to do a National Public Radio interview because they didn't want his message to get out.

But Republicans told him the hundreds of other interviews he did belie his broad claim he was being silenced.

"We have over 1,400 opportunities that you've availed yourself to, and yet you call it, you know, being stifled," said Rep. Darrell Issa, California Republican.

End Quote.

Link: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2007/mar/20/20070320-120435-3136r/

Poor guy.
 
Last edited:
Upvote 0

Gawron

Well-Known Member
Apr 24, 2008
3,152
473
✟5,109.00
Faith
Christian
Marital Status
Married
No one was trying to start a blog war, this claim is simply an attempt at mis-direction. And if your statement about blogs in general is true, then nothing you have ever posted here can be taken in any form to be true, accurate, or literal.

They are just words on a frakin blog.
 
Upvote 0

chaim

Veteran
Jan 25, 2005
1,994
137
✟25,371.00
Faith
Other Religion
Why do you put scientist in quotes?

Theon is dead wrong about a lack of transparency in climate models. All the major climate models are completely open source and available for anyone to examine or use. If you want to examine the inner workings of CAM, you can download it and run it yourself: http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/models/atm-cam/ He also entirely mis-represented himself as Dr. Hansons boss.

You would think that an expert such as Armstrong would be well aware of the fact that climate models do not produce forecasts, and therefore his 'principles of forecasting' are not applicable. As climate modelers themselves have pointed out, they are not, and cannot, produce a forecast. They make projections based on assumed scenraios. We don't know what future emissions scenarios will be (maybe eventually the political hack posing as skeptics will give up and we can actually make some progress on adressing climate change) so climate modelers make an assumption, such as business and usual, and project what will happen based on that assumption.

In addition, Theon made the claim concerning the lack of transparency on the part of the "scientist" constructing the models, Armstrong critized the process, a field he is clearly qualified to comment on.
 
Upvote 0