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Global Warming and Evolution

Baggins

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[Macro]evolution is just as false as global warming.

Finally a true statement from true Blue :)

They do indeed have an equal level of falsity; close to zero. :thumbsup:

How someone can look at global temperature graphs and still claim that the earth isn't warming beggers belief, that is some massive cognitive dissonance.

What is important is to remember this isn't a battle for the survival of the planet, or possibly even survival of our species. It is a battle for the survival of our civilisation.
 
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Cabal

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thaumaturgy

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I might pick Mars, but there is Global Warming there as well. Must be all the SUV's.

Kudos to you, Gawron! I saw an article a few months ago about shrinking polar icecaps on Mars, and was shocked that the journalist who reported on it didn't make the connection with global warming.

OK, both of you do realize that scientists know there have been a number of previous instances of global warming on the planet, right? I mean no one on here has denied that there is such a thing as natural global climate change.

The key difference here is:

1. In this case we are DEMONSTRABLY responsible for adding in a "Forcing" function that will likely result in significant change. That means WE might be able to do something to offset OUR negative actions if we act quickly and responsibly.

2. When the next major global climate shift happens and WE are responsible for it, WE will pay dearly for that.

I know the personal responsibility for ones actions is often the hardest thing to do. I have trouble with it, but I try my best. The last thing I would do is come on a public forum and act like we shouldn't take some greater responsibility for a profligate way of consumption. ESPECIALLY when so much is potentially at stake.

Again, I'm not a gambler, but apparently some on here are. If you want to gamble with a planet, I highly recommend you do so with someone elses.

Those of you who believe in global warming have some serious reevaluation to do. Especially those of you who believe global warming because some college professors said so.

How about those of us who have advanced degrees in the earth science and who can, to some greater or lesser extent, understand the science being presented? Do we get a "pass" for believing in global climate change?


It's very dangerous to reply on other people as a source of truth.

And interestingly enough it's very dangerous to ignore "all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members' expertise bears directly on the matter..."


We need to look at the data and evidence for ourselves and be our own judge.

And indeed, I think I have done so. Armed with 12 years of university training in geochemistry, a doctorate related to coal chemistry and an additional 13 years as research chemist, I think I've done my homework. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a climatic expert. But I've certainly got more in my quivver than many who enjoin the debate.

In these discussions here on this board (in this thread and in others before on this topic) I have presented my data, and I find little in the opposing side that offsets my understanding of the data, nor do I find compelling the words of a few when "all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members' expertise bears directly on the matter..." would seem to indicate this is a real issue.



Don't get me wrong, I'm willing to learn. And I laud Gawron for posting actual links and data. But I'm not necessarily swayed until I hear someone explain to me how a known greenhouse gas that we are demonstrably responsible for increasing in concentrations at a high rate is somehow not a concern.
 
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Gawron

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"How about those of us who have advanced degrees in the earth science and who can, to some greater or lesser extent, understand the science being presented? Do we get a "pass" for believing in global climate change?"

Here we go again, straight from the play book: "You stupid hicks can't possibly understand the first thing about this subject, so just shut up and leave it to us smart people." Now I really don't think you are being this arrogant, based on your overall comments, but on the surface it sure comes across that way.

"until I hear someone explain to me how a known greenhouse gas that we are demonstrably responsible for increasing in concentrations at a high rate is somehow not a concern."

I am not denying there has been warming, only that 'man', espceially the American man, is to blame.

Here is the latest HADCRUT3 chart, which shows a warming of about 0.5 degrees C over the last 30 years and only 1 degree since 1860.

nhshgl.gif


http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

And this is the IPCC's own chart, which contradicts the IPCC report:


IPCCchart.jpg


Not that I think I am actually going to change your mind, but perhaps maybe take some of the alarm out your arguments. Al Gore and many of his supporters are opportunist, investing in the very companies which would stand to make the most money off of global warming grants and research. I can post links to this information as well.
 
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Pete Harcoff

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[Macro]evolution is just as false as global warming.

So why does it have real world application (macro evolution that is)? You seem to be doing everything you can to ignore this point. Of course, I don't expect you to answer this because to date, not a single creationist has (and this includes ICR and AIG).
 
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thaumaturgy

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Here we go again, straight from the play book: "You stupid hicks can't possibly understand the first thing about this subject, so just shut up and leave it to us smart people."

Actually, I was responding to the claim that True made that some might be prone to just take the word of some professor.
 
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thaumaturgy

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"until I hear someone explain to me how a known greenhouse gas that we are demonstrably responsible for increasing in concentrations at a high rate is somehow not a concern."

I am not denying there has been warming, only that 'man', espceially the American man, is to blame.

But you aren't tracking on my question. It is far more fundamental. Please explain to me why something that fits all the necessary and sufficient requirements to be a serious threat. And there is ample isotopic evidence that WE are directly responsible for pumping this into the atmosphere at a massive rate. AND that we are release previously sequestered carbon at a rate many many many times higher than it was sequester isn't a reasonable threat?

Beyond this, of course are the numerous models which show not only the "threat" is actually happening but it could be serious and very bad.

And on top of that, if you wish to discuss American habits, why is it so scary to think maybe we should be told "No, you can't consume this much gasoline to drive to the grocery store in your Hummer"? We make up something like 5% of the earth's population but consume 25% of the petroleum. The rest of the world is going to start ramping up and we will have to give into them as China and India take jobs and production from us. WE have to clean up our act before we can demand others do it.

Otherwise we are hypocrites.

Here is the latest HADCRUT3 chart, which shows a warming of about 0.5 degrees C over the last 30 years and only 1 degree since 1860.

Again, don't get lost in the small value of the numbers. Those are averages over huge areas and a large number of degrees of latitude. The fact that you can shift a hemisphere by 0.5 to 1 deg celsius is an AMAZINGLY LARGE AMOUNT. And it isn't necessarily going to be a linear increase going forward.


Not that I think I am actually going to change your mind, but perhaps maybe take some of the alarm out your arguments.

Alarm is a reasonable response. Considering the top NASA climate scientist seems to think we may already be past a couple of the tipping points. Time can run out.

We aren't asking people to destroy the american way of life. What we want is to get people to start the long road to moderation. The key is to start living within our means and living rationally.

But further, this doesn't mean the LOSS of technology it means new jobs and tech research programs can come on line! It means future development opportunities.

And it is responsible.

Al Gore and many of his supporters are opportunist,

I don't care one whit about Al Gore. I liked his film, but I'm much more impressed by real scientists talking real science with real science information. Al Gore is a bit player. A "face", an "Enviro Meat Puppet", if you will.

investing in the very companies which would stand to make the most money off of global warming grants and research. I can post links to this information as well.

It isn't about money. It's about responsibility and sustainability and a rational response to our overindulgence.

Take it from me, I thought I'd end up working in petroleum or coal for my career. This is what I trained in. But I want to live on this planet and leave it as good or better than I came to it.
 
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juvenissun

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But you aren't tracking on my question. It is far more fundamental. Please explain to me why something that fits all the necessary and sufficient requirements to be a serious threat. And there is ample isotopic evidence that WE are directly responsible for pumping this into the atmosphere at a massive rate. AND that we are release previously sequestered carbon at a rate many many many times higher than it was sequester isn't a reasonable threat?

Care to explain a little how do we see the isotopic signature of gases released from North America? I don't know how could that be recognized.
 
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thaumaturgy

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Care to explain a little how do we see the isotopic signature of gases released from North America? I don't know how could that be recognized.

The study only revealed that the CO2 influx is greatly caused by the burning of fossil fuels (like petroleum and coal).

The other numbers, like how much oil America uses are needed to make a bigger point:

#1 United States:20,730,000bbl/day
#2 China:6,534,000 bbl/day
#3 Japan:5,578,000 bbl/day
(That's barrels per day)

(SOURCE)

America uses 25% of the world's petroleum (SOURCE)

America makes up only 5% of the world's population.

We need to get our house in order before we impose constraint on the globe but rest assured everyone will have to chip in.
 
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Gawron

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"It isn't about money."

I understand your primary point, but I disagree with this one. The Kyoto Protocols were not about the 'environment', they were about forcing the US to pay the lions share of funding. This explains why, in a rare moment of sanity, the Senate voted the treaty down 99 to 0. Even though Al Gore forced the vote on it in the Senate, every other Democrat voted against it because it was bad policy. Everyone seemed to recognize this except Gore. (I know, you don't care about Gore, but he is such fun to rag on.)

Another major problem with Kyoto was it exempted several developing nations, such as India and China, from financial responsibility for funding the treaty. These two countries are by far more the cause of most of the problems you speak toward, as opposed to the US. This exemption existed while simultaneously sticking the world's wealthiest nations (i.e. America) with economic restraints harmful to their economies. America doesn't have the money to funnel down this massive drain.

But remember, we have been down this road before. Those who recall The Montreal Protocol, enacted some 20 years ago, will recall that it banned the use of CFCs. This deadly chemical was said to be destroying the ozone layer, and would thus expose us to deadly UV rays. Well, the hole in the ozone layer is still there, shrinking and expanding over the course of each year. Additionally, as opposed to this hole forming over the most populated centers where the release of CFCs would be assumed to be or have been the greatest, it forms and exist over Antarctica, where there is hardly any release of CFCs at all. The threat of CFCs was supposed to have been anthropogenic as well, but after almost 20 years of the Montreal Protocols combined with an ever present Ozone hole, wouldn't a logical conclusion be that the hole in the Ozone layer is a naturally occurring phenomena? If the scientist were wrong then, is it not possible they are wrong now?

The Kyoto Protocol is the Montreal Protocol on steroids. Unlike the banning of CFC, however, cutting energy use will impede economic growth of nations around the world. In particular, developing nations are the ones likely to be hit the hardest, for in general they are the ones with older, less efficient, carbon fuel guzzling power plants. They are also the ones whose governments are more likely to care the least, unless someone else pays for any changes or upgrades. In the end, the poor will be hit harder than the rich.

"why is it so scary to think maybe we should be told "No, you can't consume this much gasoline to drive to the grocery store in your Hummer"?

The word totalitarianism comes to mind. However, I say as we 'clean up our act', we insist that other nations pay their own way rather than they insist we do it for them.

On another note and as an add-on to one of my previous post, a few more words about C02. The correlation of CO2 and temperature in the ice cores consistently illustrates that the temperature changes preceded the CO2 changes by an average of 800 years, in every glacial cycle. Thus, it is only reasonable to assume the CO2 changes could not have caused, or been the driving force behind, the temperature changes. Even the global warming gurus at RealClimate.org have trouble explaining the lag-time.

The data from the Vostok and other ice cores are available from NOAA. By downloading them into Excel anyone can graph them out. Here is an example of what 'Hockey Stick' Mann's people have to say about the lag times:

Quote:
The reason has to do with the fact that the warmings take about 5000 years to be complete. The lag is only 800 years. All that the lag shows is that CO2 did not cause the first 800 years of warming, out of the 5000 year trend. The other 4200 years of warming could in fact have been caused by CO2, as far as we can tell from this ice core data.

The 4200 years of warming make up about 5/6 of the total warming. So CO2 could have caused the last 5/6 of the warming, but could not have caused the first 1/6 of the warming. LINK

As an argument, post hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy. Just because "B" happens after "A" does not mean that "A" caused "B". However, the Pleistocene temperature-CO2 correlations in the ice cores aren't even candidates for examples of post hoc ergo propter hoc because the temperature increases consistently preceded the CO2 increases.

I maintain that there is little evidence in the last 600 million years of Earth’s geological history of CO2 driving climate change. If atmospheric CO2 concentrations could cause climate change, there would be evidence of it in the historical geology of the Earth. But there is no such evidence in the entire Phanerozoic Eon.


CO_vs_Temp.jpg
 
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thaumaturgy

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"It isn't about money."

I understand your primary point, but I disagree with this one. The Kyoto Protocols were not about the 'environment', they were about forcing the US to pay the lions share of funding.

The U.S. currently uses the lion's share of the oil on a per capita basis:

#1 United States:20,730,000 bbl/day
#2 China:6,534,000 bbl/day
#3 Japan:5,578,000 bbl/day
#4 Germany:2,650,000 bbl/day
#5 Russia:2,500,000 bbl/day
#6 India:2,450,000 bbl/day
(bbl = "barrels")
(SOURCE)

We utilize 25% of the world's petroleum (SOURCE) yet we only make up 5% of the world's population.

Is this not a call to make us do something? And who bears the largest burder?

Another major problem with Kyoto was it exempted several developing nations, such as India and China

And that's bad. I'll agree. But look at how much petroleum they use. They are going to develop. We will have no authority to say anything against their consumption of petroleum at whatever alarming levels they wish. Indeed, China, can draw on a huge reserve of coal as well. So, if we want to have any say in the matter we need to become more responsible ourselves.

I will return later for more on this interesting topic...
 
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True_Blue

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The U.S. currently uses the lion's share of the oil on a per capita basis:

#1 United States:20,730,000 bbl/day
#2 China:6,534,000 bbl/day
#3 Japan:5,578,000 bbl/day
#4 Germany:2,650,000 bbl/day
#5 Russia:2,500,000 bbl/day
#6 India:2,450,000 bbl/day
(bbl = "barrels")
(SOURCE)

We utilize 25% of the world's petroleum (SOURCE) yet we only make up 5% of the world's population.

Is this not a call to make us do something? And who bears the largest burder?

Since anthroprogenic global warming is not true, there's no compelling need to reduce our oil consumption. As long as we are willing to pay market prices for oil, the best thing for us to do for the whole world is to buy as much as we can afford. We enrich the lives of everyone on the plant by buying their surplus oil. Moreover, pouring CO2 into the atmosphere will allow plants to grow faster, making oil consumption an unmitigated blessing for almost all life on the planet. As oil supplies dwindle, the price will go up. As the price goes up, companies like mine will eventually be able to provide renewable energy that will make up the energy shortfall until the sun stops shining.
 
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ReverendDG

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I just seems funny to me that everything to evolutionists seems to be in 100's of millions of years, and yet the very same people are being shown that reality is so much quicker....
i find it laughable that you think that we can compare changes that are natural to ones affected by man and come to the conclusion you did:doh:
 
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thaumaturgy

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This exemption existed while simultaneously sticking the world's wealthiest nations (i.e. America) with economic restraints harmful to their economies. America doesn't have the money to funnel down this massive drain.

When China and India come 'on-line' as economic powerhouses, it is largely because we gave them the seed money and purchased their goods.


But remember, we have been down this road before. Those who recall The Montreal Protocol, enacted some 20 years ago, will recall that it banned the use of CFCs.

Interestingly enough I was directly impacted by that! At one job I had we measured CFC's in ocean water to determine not any environmental issue, but rather to track where a "packet" of ocean water had interacted with the atmosphere (come to the surface). We measured very low levels of Freon 11, 12 and 113. After a certain point the ratio of a couple of these started to change precisely because CFC's were being phased out so after a bit the ratio would give two possible dates, one earlier (original ratio) and one later (as the ratios fell back again!).

This deadly chemical was said to be destroying the ozone layer, and would thus expose us to deadly UV rays. Well, the hole in the ozone layer is still there, shrinking and expanding over the course of each year.

And this says what about the "destruction of ozone by cfc's"? You surely aren't saying CFC's don't destroy ozone, right? If you would like, HERE'S a link to describe the reaction.

The threat of CFCs was supposed to have been anthropogenic as well, but after almost 20 years of the Montreal Protocols

ONLY 20 years. Remember what the predictions are around recovery for this:

It was anticipated that these limitations would lead to a recovery of the ozone layer within 50 years of 2000; the World Meteorological Organisation estimated 2045 (WMO reports #25, #37), but recent investigations suggest the problem is perhaps on a much larger scale than anticipated. (SOURCE)
(Emphasis added)

And then this...

"The eventual recovery of the gaping ozone hole over Antarctica, first discovered two decades ago, may take years longer than previously predicted, scientists reported Tuesday.
Researchers suspect that's because of all the older model refrigerators and car air-conditioning systems in the United States and Canada that are still releasing ozone-killing chemicals. Both countries curbed those chemicals in newer products." (SOURCE)

So we aren't seeing an overnight recovery miracle. This is why atmospheric issues are quite serious and should be acted on in a timely manner.

combined with an ever present Ozone hole, wouldn't a logical conclusion be that the hole in the Ozone layer is a naturally occurring phenomena?

Not necessarily.


Here's what the EPA says about why the ozone hole is over Antarctica:

The second kind of ozone depletion chemistry, called heterogeneous, causes the radical destruction of ozone over the Antarctic each spring that we call the ozone hole. It results from reactions on the surfaces of ice particles. The existence of these particles, and the seasonal and geographic location of the hole, all result from a combination of meteorological and other effects that are specific to Antarctica at that time of year...




Each winter, the air around the South Pole cools and begins circulating to the west. This vortex effectively isolates the air over Antarctica, with three effects:
  1. Outside air, which is relatively ozone-rich, cannot mix in and sustain ozone levels.
  2. Chemicals that tend to slow down the depletion reactions cannot mix with Antarctic air.
  3. Heat from outside air is shut out, prolonging the period of very low stratospheric temperatures.
(SOURCE)


If the scientist were wrong then, is it not possible they are wrong now?

Were they wrong? I don't see that.

however, cutting energy use will impede economic growth of nations around the world.

The point being that economic growth that is inherently dangerous and unsustainable is not worth having.

In particular, developing nations are the ones likely to be hit the hardest, for in general they are the ones with older, less efficient, carbon fuel guzzling power plants.

Precisely! That is why WE need to lead the way, and if you want to think in terms of $$$ on this issue, then think in terms of new technology development. There's plenty of scratch in that.

In the end, the poor will be hit harder than the rich.

That's not a necessity. It is only if the West continues to think they own the earth. That's a wholly separate issue and it relies only on our choices and how we enact them.

The word totalitarianism comes to mind.

Oh geez! Gimme a break. It isn't totalitarianism to tell someone they can't burn more than their fair share of a non-renewable resource.

Unless, of course you wish to define "common sense" as "totalitarianism".

However, I say as we 'clean up our act', we insist that other nations pay their own way rather than they insist we do it for them.

I can agree to that to a point, but remember we ARE among the richest most powerful countries on the planet and we use a disproportionate amount of resources. Sooner or later the world is going to hold us accountable.

From those to whom much has been given, much will be required.

On another note and as an add-on to one of my previous post, a few more words about C02. The correlation of CO2 and temperature in the ice cores consistently illustrates that the temperature changes preceded the CO2 changes by an average of 800 years, in every glacial cycle. Thus, it is only reasonable to assume the CO2 changes could not have caused, or been the driving force behind, the temperature changes.

Keep repeating that all you like, but you still have not told me why a gas that is a known greenhouse gas (owing to the nature of its chemical bonds) is somehow not a threat?

Remember, I sat for years trying to do FTIR's of some materials and I saw that little CO2 absorption peak over and over and over and over and over again. What does that mean to you?

Even the global warming gurus at RealClimate.org have trouble explaining the lag-time.

Not really. I believe I posted that link for you. There is a concept in science called a "feedback loop". And there are natural offsets that can ameliorate CO2 influxes and excursions. The real problem is the relative amount WE are directly responsible for pumping into the atmosphere and the relative rate at which we are pumping it in.

The 4200 years of warming make up about 5/6 of the total warming. So CO2 could have caused the last 5/6 of the warming, but could not have caused the first 1/6 of the warming. LINK

As an argument, post hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy. Just because "B" happens after "A" does not mean that "A" caused "B".

Except in this case we have a very firm knowledge of how A can cause B. And while A may have been initially kicked off by B, A can further cause B. This isn't just a logic problem.

Think of a nuclear bomb. In may cases you need an initial neutron to kick off the reaction, but it is a chain reaction precisely because each reaction once started produces a sufficient excess of neutrons to ensure the reaction will propogate.

That's why this type of feedback loop is dangerous. We are, metaphorically speaking, pumping neutrons into this reaction. We are working to kick-start the reaction with a vengeance that will ensure it's propogation. And we are the ones who will burn.

If atmospheric CO2 concentrations could cause climate change, there would be evidence of it in the historical geology of the Earth. But there is no such evidence in the entire Phanerozoic Eon.

Has there ever been a creature on the earth that releases previously sequestered carbon at the rate we release it?
 
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LittleNipper

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The study only revealed that the CO2 influx is greatly caused by the burning of fossil fuels (like petroleum and coal).

The other numbers, like how much oil America uses are needed to make a bigger point:

#1 United States:20,730,000bbl/day
#2 China:6,534,000 bbl/day
#3 Japan:5,578,000 bbl/day
(That's barrels per day)

(SOURCE)

America uses 25% of the world's petroleum (SOURCE)

America makes up only 5% of the world's population.

We need to get our house in order before we impose constraint on the globe but rest assured everyone will have to chip in.

And how much bigger is the United States in comparison to Japan?
 
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LittleNipper

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i find it laughable that you think that we can compare changes that are natural to ones affected by man and come to the conclusion you did:doh:

I find it laughable that you see humans as anything but "natural." So do you see man as a by-product of some evolutionary process, or do you see humanity as fallen but created in the image of GOD. You cannot have it both ways and make sense.
 
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thaumaturgy

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And how much bigger is the United States in comparison to Japan?

You missed the point, I was pointing out (and you'd see if you followed the link) how much we use in comparison to a huge number of countries. Look at how we dwarf China.

Now, imagine if China burned fossil fuels on a per capita basis similar to us? And don't be surprised if they want to have our standard of living.

But further, you skipped over the most shocking part:

US: 5% of the world's population, 25% of the world's petroleum consumed.

Doesn't that bother you just a weeeeeeee, tiny micro-bit?
 
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TheManeki

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And how much bigger is the United States in comparison to Japan?

Good question.

US Population: 304,066,733 (source)
Japan Population: 127,770,000 (source)

Dividing Thaum's consumption numbers by the populations and converting from barrels to gallons (remember, 1 bbl = 42 gal):

US: Each person consumes an average of 2.86 gallons of oil per day
Japan: Each person consumes an average of 1.83 gallons of oil per day

So the average American consumes 56% more oil per day than the average Japanese.
 
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