Frequency natural disasters is increasing- why?

[Halbhh]

Except things have been far worse already. Again, I point to the Black Death where half of the entire population of Europe died. That was far worse than anything happening today.

Why wouldn't that have been an indication of the end times?

By itself? Because of other missing pieces, since the indication Christ gave was very clear it would be many pieces together, not just 3 or 4, and besides, there is that light-switch-like (exacting) one I pointed out to you above. But...why is the whole topic of interest to you though? Are you wondering if it might be best to check things out?

 

[Ophiolite]

To be honest this is not happening yet, kind of thankful for that! But there has been a statistically significant increase in the frequency and energy release of earthquakes in the first decade of this century. It could peter out like previous cycles. Noone has really explained it though in this thread.

It is laughable to consider seismic data over a such a miniscule period as a decade. The variation we do see is wholly consistent with the normal range for earthquakes. No other explanation is required. Come back to me in a century or so if the trend continues.

 

[Halbhh]

It is laughable to consider seismic data over a such a miniscule period as a decade. The variation we do see is wholly consistent with the normal range for earthquakes. No other explanation is required. Come back to me in a century or so if the trend continues.

This interesting question about what would constitute an unusually pronounced, altered, level of earthquakes, powerful enough to possibly be a sign -- it's sorta subjective -- but that didn't stop me from saying what I thought would. I'll grab that and quote myself:

My subjective view of what would be enough to be different --

Just was searching up something else, and noticed Earthquake report, and on the page, several recent quakes:

earthquake - Google Search
notice also how these are scattered [this was back in January 2019]

Notice the recent few on the 21rst and 22nd. According to statistics there are about 140ish-150ish magnitude 6-6.9 earthquakes per year on average. Earthquake Statistics
So, for instance it it turned out that over several days there are many in that range per day, it will be a remarkable swarm, such as for example if we saw like 15 or 20 in a week (vs 3 a week average), then it's more significant looking. (even though of course weeks will have more or less, some zero, some many) Now this thought is only about how many 6-6.9 would be significant as being rather numerous. Of course the 7.0+ range is another thing. For 7.0+ level, 12 or 15 in a week would feel overwhelming, and so would even just 8. For the really powerful quakes at 8.0+, then it doesn't take more than 2 in a week to already get one's attention from far away.

So, 4 or more 8+ quakes in a just a few weeks, for example....that would be a rather wake-you-up kinda thing, for me.

Entire subjective, but...if it was happening I bet you and I would be paying attention, unless some other thing was totally overwhelming your attention.

 

[Occams Barber]

By itself? Because of other missing pieces, since the indication Christ gave was very clear it would be many pieces together, not just 3 or 4, and besides, there is that light-switch-like (exacting) one I pointed out to you above. But...why is the whole topic of interest to you though? Are you wondering if it might be best to check things out?

Unfortunately for your argument, Global Annual Deaths from natural disasters have dropped significantly. This is probably due to improved disaster warning, mitigation and recovery.

This piece doesn't appear to fit your puzzle.

SOURCE: Natural Disasters
OB

 

[Halbhh]

Unfortunately for your argument, Global Annual Deaths from natural disasters have dropped significantly. This is probably due to improved disaster warning, mitigation and recovery.

This piece doesn't appear to fit your puzzle.

SOURCE: Natural Disasters
OB

What was my argument? That many things together would be needed, and that we aren't there yet. Perhaps you confused me with someone else.

I do find the 'atheist' interest in this topic...interesting. Tell me more please on why it's of interest to you. Could it be you'd like to hedge your bets?

 

[pitabread]

By itself? Because of other missing pieces, since the indication Christ gave was very clear it would be many pieces together, not just 3 or 4, and besides, there is that light-switch-like (exacting) one I pointed out to you above.

Oh, I'm sure at the time people could have rationalized being in the end times just like they do today.

But...why is the whole topic of interest to you though? Are you wondering if it might be best to check things out?

I believe in providing a sanity check against superstition. I think that ascribing natural disasters, weather patterns and other such occurrences to divine will is a superstition.

 

[Halbhh]

Oh, I'm sure at the time people could have rationalized being in the end times just like they do today.



I believe in providing a sanity check against superstition. I think that ascribing natural disasters, weather patterns and other such occurrences to divine will is a superstition.

We agree on that last paragraph. As it happens the explicit signs listed won't be just the mere '500 year flood' level, but sharply more dramatic it seems, as best I can read them. Stuff that just does not happen instead of stuff that is rare might be a subjective way of describing them. It won't leave a lot of room for doubt for a person like me that is hard to convince, it would seem.

 

[klutedavid]

Unfortunately for your argument, Global Annual Deaths from natural disasters have dropped significantly. This is probably due to improved disaster warning, mitigation and recovery.

This piece doesn't appear to fit your puzzle.

SOURCE: Natural Disasters
OB

For example, obviously cyclone warnings days from their arrival would greatly reduce the death toll.

 

[Ophiolite]

I do find the 'atheist' interest in this topic...interesting. Tell me more please on why it's of interest to you. Could it be you'd like to hedge your bets?

I am fascinated by the way in which essentially unfounded beliefs encourage the believer to ignore a rational approach to data. In this thread I've attempted to point out why the alleged increase in disasters is irrelevant, especially as it pertains to earthquakes. In other words my interest is in seeking to correct ill informed ideas.

 

[Halbhh]

I am fascinated by the way in which essentially unfounded beliefs encourage the believer to ignore a rational approach to data. In this thread I've attempted to point out why the alleged increase in disasters is irrelevant, especially as it pertains to earthquakes. In other words my interest is in seeking to correct ill informed ideas.

Yup, totally agree. What I'd look for is very different. See post #107 just above.

 

[ralfyman]

I found one article that refers to the chart here:

Natural disasters since 1900—over 8 million deaths and 7 trillion US dollars damage

but the first chart refers to economic costs, and a second to deaths.

 

[AV1611VET]

We agree on that last paragraph. As it happens the explicit signs listed won't be just the mere '500 year flood' level, but sharply more dramatic it seems, as best I can read them. Stuff that just does not happen instead of stuff that is rare might be a subjective way of describing them. It won't leave a lot of room for doubt for a person like me that is hard to convince, it would seem.

We live in exciting times, don't we!?

 

[mindlight]

I am fascinated by the way in which essentially unfounded beliefs encourage the believer to ignore a rational approach to data. In this thread I've attempted to point out why the alleged increase in disasters is irrelevant, especially as it pertains to earthquakes. In other words my interest is in seeking to correct ill informed ideas.

Evidence has been offered during this thread of a statistically significant increase in the frequency and cost and in the case of earthquakes - energy release since 2000. You have dismissed this as an irrelevant blip but not offered any conclusive reasons for it beyond a speculative - it might be related to climate change. An end time scenario would require more than what we are seeing but what we are seeing lacks explanation.

 

[Occams Barber]

Evidence has been offered during this thread of a statistically significant increase in the frequency and cost and in the case of earthquakes - energy release since 2000. You have dismissed this as an irrelevant blip but not offered any conclusive reasons for it beyond a speculative - it might be related to climate change. An end time scenario would require more than what we are seeing but what we are seeing lacks explanation.

Evidence has been offered during this thread of a statistically significant increase in the frequency and cost and in the case of earthquakes - energy release since 2000. You have dismissed this as an irrelevant blip but not offered any conclusive reasons for it beyond a speculative - it might be related to climate change. An end time scenario would require more than what we are seeing but what we are seeing lacks explanation.

If you were to use the intellect God gave you mindlight you would have noticed that most of the people you've been arguing with are atheists or agnostics.

If we don't accept that your God exists, then why on Earth would we be concerned about your mythical 'End Times'?
OB

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

An end time scenario would require more than what we are seeing but what we are seeing lacks explanation.

Wiki has explanation that was already posted but I guess it did not grab your attention so lets post it again

"A recent increase in the number of major earthquakes has been noted, which could be explained by a cyclical pattern of periods of intense tectonic activity, interspersed with longer periods of low-intensity. However, accurate recordings of earthquakes only began in the early 1900s, so it is too early to categorically state that this is the case.[38]"

Stuff that just does not happen instead of stuff that is rare might be a subjective way of describing them. It won't leave a lot of room for doubt for a person like me that is hard to convince, it would seem.

When we have totally unexplained stuff like mountains moving in a day, rivers going uphill with blood and sheeps raining from the sky we might have a case for something out of ordinary, but this reading of newspapers and noting 11% increase in for earthquakes in burkina faso during last week and then spinning end of the world scenarios out of it is just sad.

 

[AV1611VET]

When we have totally unexplained stuff like mountains moving in a day, rivers going uphill with blood and sheeps raining from the sky we might have a case for something out of ordinary, but this reading of newspapers and noting 11% increase in for earthquakes in burkina faso during last week and then spinning end of the world scenarios out of it is just sad.

You guys are arguing as if Jesus was saying there would be earthquakes, etc. like never before.

But Jesus said His return would be during a period of increasing activity -- not record activity.

If you were on a train going up into mountains and down into valleys and up into mountains ... and someone said it would eventually stop while going uphill ... would you say, "Ya ... it's been going uphill before"?

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

But Jesus said His return would be during a period of increasing activity -- not record activity.

That statement is so vague it is worthless. Increased activity ? Compared to what ? Last century, last millenia, last week ?, last 10 seconds ?

Also I would venture that Jesus also did not say it would not be record activity either so that part of the statement is pretty worthless as well.

How about just going with theory that if geological disturbances and other occurrances in the nature can be explained with science with reasonable degree of certainty we do not need to attribute every eclipse to God`s wrath darkening the world since we actually know what is happening instead of reacting like middle age peasants and going to stone few Jews to appease the God and make the sun shine again.

 

[AV1611VET]

Are you serious, Jonathan?

Really?

That statement is so vague it is worthless.

Why? UP means NOT DOWN.

Increased activity?

Yes.

Increased activity.

Compared to what ?

Decreased activity?

Last century, last millenia, last week ?, last 10 seconds ?

Since 4004 BC.

Also I would venture that Jesus also did not say it would not be record activity either so that part of the statement is pretty worthless as well.

Why?

How about just going with theory that if geological disturbances and other occurrances in the nature can be explained with science with reasonable degree of certainty we do not need to attribute every eclipse to God`s wrath darkening the world since we actually know what is happening ...

Sure.

Let's do that.

My point still stands.

... instead of reacting like middle age peasants and going to stone few Jews to appease the God and make the sun shine again.

I beg your pardon?

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

Since 4004 BC.

Really ? What are your figures for earthquakes in 3789 BC compared to ten years ago and how did you figure it out ?

I beg your pardon?

Jews, witches, outsiders, cats and so on were often accused of being in the league with the devil etc. and blamed for happenings like plagues, storms, droughts etc. which we now understand through the science to be natural occurrances instead of being signs of divine disfavour.

Well, most of us understand.

 

[AV1611VET]

Really ? What are your figures for earthquakes in 3789 BC compared to ten years ago and how did you figure it out ?

I have no figures for earthquakes in 3789 BC compared to ten years ago and how I figured that out came naturally to me.

There's nothing in my head to figure out.

Jews, witches, outsiders, cats and so on were often accused of being in the league with the devil etc. and blamed for happenings like plagues, storms, droughts etc. which we now understand through the science to be natural occurrances instead of being signs of divine disfavour.

What on earth does this have to do with anything?

Jesus said He was going to return during a time of increased seismic activity.

Okay with you if He keeps that promise?

Well, most of us understand.

You don't.

What college did/do you attend, just out of curiosity?