F-22 Invincible, Maybe not?

[LogicChristian]

One thing to remember : INDIA is getting filthy rich at a fast pace right now. It is now officially lending money to the USA. It has 160 billion in public reserves and 1 trillion in Gold reserves.

And that validates the numbers you've given or allows for PAK-FA to be deployed in 2010 without even a prototype in 2006 how?

 

[srev2004]

And that validates the numbers you've given or allows for PAK-FA to be deployed in 2010 without even a prototype in 2006 how?

Maybe we make it right the first time

 

[LogicChristian]

Maybe we make it right the first time

Experience with the Marut and LCA would indicate otherwise. Russian experience with the Su-27 and Mig 1.44 would also indicate that the PAK-FA won't go from drawing board to fully deployed in 4 years. If the Russians were using off the shelf systems, I might be able to believe that more. But instead Russia is planning on going for many firsts for their aircraft design folks, stealth and AESA are just a couple of the new things they'll need to master.

Furthermore, the Indian inability to deploy LCA in large numbers shows that even if India and Russia could "make it right the first time" it would take many years to deploy the aircraft in any significant numbers, especially given the anemic funding Russia has given to the project.

The LCA is far simpler than the PAK-FA is proposed to be. The first prototype LCA was rolled out in 1995, and it is not planned to be operational until 2008, and won't be deployed widescale until about 2010. A 13 year cycle from prototype to deployment should say a little something about how long and how costly joint Russian-Indian PAK-FA development will be, especially given the number of new state of the art systems needed for the PAK-FA as opposed to LCA.

 

[srev2004]

Experience with the Marut and LCA would indicate otherwise. Russian experience with the Su-27 and Mig 1.44 would also indicate that the PAK-FA won't go from drawing board to fully deployed in 4 years. If the Russians were using off the shelf systems, I might be able to believe that more. But instead Russia is planning on going for many firsts for their aircraft design folks, stealth and AESA are just a couple of the new things they'll need to master.

Furthermore, the Indian inability to deploy LCA in large numbers shows that even if India and Russia could "make it right the first time" it would take many years to deploy the aircraft in any significant numbers, especially given the anemic funding Russia has given to the project.

The LCA is far simpler than the PAK-FA is proposed to be. The first prototype LCA was rolled out in 1995, and it is not planned to be operational until 2008, and won't be deployed widescale until about 2010. A 13 year cycle from prototype to deployment should say a little something about how long and how costly joint Russian-Indian PAK-FA development will be, especially given the number of new state of the art systems needed for the PAK-FA as opposed to LCA.

I'm just saying you should never underestimate the underdog, it will come back to bite you. Ten years back no one would have believed that India is the IT powerhouse it is today.

 

[LogicChristian]

I'm just saying you should never underestimate the underdog, it will come back to bite you. Ten years back no one would have believed that India is the IT powerhouse it is today.

That sounds all well and good, but all evidence says that the PAK-FA will not reach deployment in the 2010 timeframe. That would mean going from prototype to at least low rate production in about 3 and a half years and the development of a Russian AESA from the lab to the battlefield in a similar amount of time.

I might be willing to believe that India teamed with Russia can overcome many of the problems that faced the LCA program, but a fifth generation fighter going from no prototype to deployment in three and a half years is just about impossible.

 

[srev2004]

That sounds all well and good, but all evidence says that the PAK-FA will not reach deployment in the 2010 timeframe. That would mean going from prototype to at least low rate production in about 3 and a half years and the development of a Russian AESA from the lab to the battlefield in a similar amount of time.

I might be willing to believe that India teamed with Russia can overcome many of the problems that faced the LCA program, but a fifth generation fighter going from no prototype to deployment in three and a half years is just about impossible.

The Soviets always keep up with the USA no matter what amount of funding they have. The PAK-FA is based off the Su-47 Berkut airframe. So not much has to be changed.

 

[LogicChristian]

The Soviets always keep up with the USA no matter what amount of funding they have. The PAK-FA is based off the Su-47 Berkut airframe. So not much has to be changed.

That's simply not true. In fact, in terms of proportion of GDP spent, the Russians spent far more developing the Su-27 and MiG-29 than the USA spent developing the F-15 and F-16. The only way they were able to keep up with the F-15 was the Su-27, which required well over a decade of development and tens of billions of dollars and wasn't widely available until 15 years after the F-15A (1976 for F-15A, 1990 for Su-27.) Even the MiG-29A, which was, by just about any worthwhile measure, inferior to the F-15A and F-16A, took 6 years in development and billions, if not tens of billions of dollars.

Based on that experience, it's totally unrealistic to believe that the Russians will churn out an F-22 equivalent in less than 5 years with the money they're spending. One of the main reasons Russia needs foreign help with the project is that the $1.5 billion the Russian government is spending on it doesn't cover anywhere close to half of the program's cost, and India isn't willing to totally fill the gap.

Even if PAK-FA is based on the Su-47 design, the Su-47 wasn't ready for mass production. Also, it doesn't give them a working AESA.

 

[Trainwreck]

The Soviets always keep up with the USA no matter what amount of funding they have.

Oh, is that why the nation COLLAPSED at the end of the Cold War? At any rate, even IF the Russians could come up with a comparable fighter on paper, they could not match America in practical capability because: A) Their training is inferior, B) The maintenance of their aircraft is inferior, and C) They cut corners whenever possible, especially when it comes to personnel safety.

 

[CapitalLancer]

Bye Bye F-22, THE INVISIBLE BECOMES VISIBLE?

As you well know superior USA government - leader of the "free" world has canceled the F-22 air "superiority" fighter program. http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/t10099

Right...

Please, go down to Marrietta Georgia and tell that to the squadron of them that fly and train there that their planes have been "canceled" and than come back and tell us that.