The probability of speciation isn't worth simulating, since we see every step in the process in current populations -- it clearly happens and happens frequently.
The debatable issue is not whether or not we observe a diversity of living creatures. The issue is, "how did that diversity come to be?".
I would not attempt to simulate something like the development of the eye, since there are too many directions that selection can take a species, depending on what environment it faces and which mutations occur first, and since we have too poor a knowledge of most of the relevant parameters.
The evolutionist's claim is that only
mutation is un-directed;
selection is directed (toward survival and reproduction), no? So in any hostile environment, for sentient animals the complex sense of sight provides an advantage for survival. But since
"there are too many directions that selection can take", a gradual change evolution theory cannot explain the necessary complexity of an evolved functioning eye?
What we can do is note how often multiple mutational routes turn out to be available to achieve a particular trait change (answer: very often) and observe how quickly selection can drive change.
It seems logical that selection delimits the available
mutational routes. Within that limit, those mutational routes remain random, yes? So, how many
mutational routes are available? If the number of
random mutational routes is not significantly smaller than the number of possible
random mutations before selection weans them then I don't see much progress in the discussion on gradual evolution explaining the functioning eye.
For morphological changes in animals, what we see is that typical (inferred) morphological change in the fossil record is much slower than (inferred) change during adaptive radiations (as when a lineage invades a new environment or when many ecological niches open up after a mass extinction), which in turn is much slower than the observed change in invasive species, which in turn is much slower than the observed change in artificial settings when experiments are done on natural selection.
No argument that radical changes in a creature's environment affect its survival and reproduction. No argument that radical changes in ecology accelerate (or decelerate) micro-evolutionary events. However, the evolution of a functioning eye via accumulated micro-evolutionary events needs evidence. The rate of change is not that evidence.
So there is no hint that the inferred rate of change is somehow difficult for natural selection and normal genetic variation to achieve. That, coupled with the overwhelming evidence -- from biogeography, from morphology, from fossils, and above all from genetics -- that species share common ancestors, provides compelling evidence for the reality of common descent and the role in it of random genetic variation and natural selection.
Many, not all scientists agree. However, the explanation via evolution for a functioning eye in sentient creatures or the flagellum at the cellular level remains unanswered. (Behe)
Yes to the first; I don't know what's 'mere' about evolution, but yes, we clearly evolved from other animals; all the evidence I've seen to date indicates that abstract thinking evolved; genetic evidence is very strong that humans have had a population size greater than 2 for at least 500,000 years.
We observe effects and logically infer their causes. What are the effects of abstract thinking? Our evidence is solely those observed effects. So, what is the bais for the claim that
"all the evidence (observed effects) ... to date indicates that abstract thinking evolved"? What animals use syntactical speech? What animals bury their dead? What animals draw their abstractions? What animals possess the freedom to act against their instinctive tendencies?
My turn... I would like to know what alternative explanations there are for what we see in living things, aside from evolution.
Genesis 1 I think has the explanation almost spot on:
Then God said: Let the earth bring forth vegetation
Let the earth bring forth every kind of living creature: tame animals, crawling things, and every kind of wild animal.
Then God said: Let us make
* human beings in our image
What are life's characteristic manifestations? What are its chief forms? What is the inner nature of the source of vital activity?
Vegetation manifests the universal and basic phenomena of life: nutrition, growth, and decay. The second kind of life, the animal kingdom, adds sentience and locomotion The highest kind of life is mind or reason, exerting itself in thought or rational activity. This last properly belongs to man. The source of vitality in all creatures resides in its soul, its animating and harmonizing principle.
You admit to the (non-scientific) omnipotent Creator (a theistic-evolution) but it also appears that you constrain His omnipotence to that which limited human observations and fallible reason can reach on its own. So, the scientific method is quite limited in its discovery of truth. Further, the science jetisons metaphyical principles as guardrails to its claims and admits (I think too much) unwarranted specualtion and imagination to its claims.
Genetically, however, these birds are all more closely related to one another than to any other bird in the world (and are most related to rosefinches outside the islands). Why? Similarly for the 800 species of fruit fly on the island, which are all most closely related to one another. Why?
Micro-evolution.