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I'd say a 75 percent probability of Trump being a Russian asset is being very conservative.
Keep in mind, being a Russian asset just means he's being manipulated by the Russian state apparatus to act in the interests of Russia. Ex-KGB agents like Yuri Shvets have already admitted that the KGB targeted Trump to groom him as a Russian asset. It has been speculated this was done through compromising material and blackmail, but it could have easily been done through business relationships and flattery, given Trump's massive ego and narcissistic personality, it wouldn't be hard to do.
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Did Ex-KGB Spy Say Russia Cultivated Trump as an 'Asset' for 40 Years?
The accusation was made in a book and also in an interview with The Guardian.www.snopes.com
That casts a pretty wide net for defining "asset", at least in terms of nefarious implications or in the political sense. "Flattery" and "various forms of pressure" mean that 90% of the congress is an "asset" for some entity or another (whether it be a private or public entity).
While I have no doubts that certain Ex-KGB agents would make such statements (the ex-spies willing to talk publicly always seem to convey some...let's just say, slightly exaggerated accounts of happenings). And perhaps conveys a level of precision that may not have existed. That's very reminiscent to the kinds of "spy big talk" that people like Malcolm Nance use when making public statements.
At best, it was perhaps a "cast a wide net/buckshot" approach, with the hopes that maybe something panned out?
Hollywood, Journalists, Professors, and High-profile people were their main targets.
According to historians, during the cold war, at any given time, they'd have thousands of different "cultivation and recruitment" efforts happening simultaneously.
Was Trump one of them? Who knows...I'm certainly not going to take the word of an ex-KGB guy who may be inflating his knowledge base on that.
But it does seem like it would've been a long shot to cultivate one guy to be an asset for 40+ years with any sort of precision, who only then would rise to power under conditions that they couldn't possibly predicted.
If you think about it, that's basically saying
"We got this guy who's very susceptible to flattery, and we've got some dirt on him... so, perhaps one day, 30-40 years from now, the US will have border issues and males will start peeing in the girls room, and that'll make 55% people so mad, that they'll vote this guy in as president, then we've got 'em!"
In order for them to orchestrate all of that while controlling the situation, they would have needed to have a different set of assets in the other party, and in the aforementioned realms of Hollywood, Journalism, and Academia, to push for those kinds of policies, in order to create the backlash they were banking on that would make their guy seem appealing to half of the population.
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