I think if enough far right republicans abstain, Hakeem Jeffries could get to be speaker.
I think that is right, but it would be a large number. There is some question in my mind about various types of "not voting" and I want to work them out, so here we go...
The "218" number comes from a majority of the House itself. With 435 members, a majority (more than 435*half = 217.5) of that is 218.
Recently a Democratic member and member-elect died, so there will be 212 Democrats and 222 Republicans and the "Whole number of the House" (as it is officially known) will be 434 until that seat is filled by special election. 434*half = 217, so more than that is still 218. That's where we start. (For the start of the present Congress there were two empty seats, one member-elect had died and another vote was being recounted, so the Whole number of the House was 433 and a majority was 217.)
There are two ways to not vote for a candidate: Vote "present" and just not vote (a member can also vote for a minor candidate).
For ordinary "Yea v. No" votes, the side that wins is just the larger total wins, Yea > No or No > Yea, "present" and absent are effectively the same, but if the threshold is not which is larger, but an actual majority they can be different.
The phrase that comes to mind is "the majority of those present and voting" which makes me think that voting "Present" does count toward to size of the majority and being absent does not. So let's try two similar scenarios using the same people:
222 Republicans, 213 vote for McCarthy, 9 do not. 212 Democrats all voting for Jeffries.
Scenario A: 9 Republicans abstain.
Vote: McCarthy 213, Jeffries 212; 425 total (majority is 213 or more) McCarthy is elected Speaker.
Scenario B: 9 Republicans vote "Present" or "Trump" or "Jordan" or anyone else
Vote: McCarthy 213, Jeffries 212, Present 9; 434 total (majority 218 or more) No one is elected. Vote again.
Same number of votes for the "real" candidates, different outcomes.
Now let's tweek "A"
Scenario A-11: 11 Republicans abstain
Vote: McCarthy 211, Jeffries 212; 423 total (Majority is 212 or more) Jeffries is elected Speaker.
(With 10 abstentions the threshold is still 213, and we get a 212-212 tie, so no one is elected. Try again)
(It is possible that abstain and "Present" act like abstain in my example and the are not effectively different, but from what I have heard, there are ways for the majority threshold to drop below 218 without vacancies.)
McCarthy could be elected with 4 voting "present" or 9 who are absent from his party (if the rest all vote for him).
"Present" (or a vote for a different candidate) is a more bold statement, whereas being absent is more of a coward's move. The problem is there could be too many "cowards" making themselves absent so they should really talk to each other before they try this stunt or it could backfire.
Even if Jefferies was elected by too many on the far right being absent there is still the problem of running the House and even having the regular rules. (Rules are passed anew with each Congress in the House.) After electing a Dem as Speaker, I would expect the GOP to rally against the Dem rules package until significant concessions are made.
If McCarthy isn't elected on the first ballot (and I think he will be), it will likely be because 5 or more Republicans vote against him. If they can't cajole the crazies back or find an consensus alternative for subsequent votes, then we get to a coalition scenario that has already been floated by some "normie Republicans". Find a moderate GOP candidate that a majority including both Dems and GOP members can vote for and have some sort of 'power sharing'. We'll see if we get there. Stay tuned in.
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