The crusades�began about 1100, the inquisition�in 1231, and the Protestant Reformation�in 1517.� In between these dates persecutions�were most intense.� The population�growth from 800 to 900 was 9.1%, from 900 to1000 was 10.4%, from 1000 to 1100 was 20.8%, and from 1100 to 1200 was 12.5%.�� The population growth from 1500 to 1600 was 28.2%, but without the 30 million killed in the New World�it would have been 35.3%.� Averaging these numbers gives a population growth of 19.75% during periods of relatively little persecution.� From 1200 to 1300 the population growth was 0%, from 1300 to 1400 it was �2.8%, and from 1400 to 1500 it was 21.4%.� This corresponds to deviations from the average of �19.75%, -22.55%, and 1.65%.� Attributing these to persecutions and the Black Death�gives a total of 146.5 million people that died in excess of what one would expect based on average population growth.� The Black Death is estimated to have killed a quarter of Europe�s population, and about 40 million people total.� Subtracting this from 146.5 million gives over 100 million excess deaths due to persecution during the Middle Ages.� This figure is a mute testimony to numerous persecutions all over the world that were never recorded and soon forgotten, except for their effect on world population figures.� This is a low estimate because there were persecutions from 1100 to 1200 and from 1500 to 1600 as well, which would not only increase the total, but would give a higher average population growth in the absence of persecution.� It may be reasonable to subtract about 55 million from this figure due to the estimated 40 million who died in the Mongol conquests�and the 17 million killed by Timur Lenk.
Beginning the computation of persecutions�at 1100 instead of 1200, the average population�growth would be 22.2% in the absence of persecution.� The deficit in population growth from 1100 to 1200 would be 9.7%, from 1200 to 1300 would be 22.2%, from 1300 to 1400 would be 25%, and from 1400 to 1500 would be 0.8%.� This amounts to 203.7 million persons in all.� Subtracting 40 million for the Black Death�gives over 160 million persons killed by persecutions in the Middle Ages.� Of course there were also persecutions before 1100 and after 1500 that are not being considered, such as the 15 million Indians�that died in the New World�and the estimated 15 million or more killed in war and the inquisition�from 1518 to 1548 and onwards.� Perhaps 55 million should be subtracted from this quantity, as well.
However, the population�growth in Europe�presents a different picture.� In 1000 AD, the population was about 36 million, then grew by 22 percent by 1100 and by 31 percent by 1200 and by 36 percent by 1300, reaching about 79 million.� In 1400 it was about 60 million due to the Black Death�and in 1500 about 81 million and 100 million in 1600.� The population growth from 400 to 800 was significantly slower.� To explain this increasing population growth in the light of persecution, recall that whenever the Papacy extended its dominion, as in South American or the Crusades, there was much bloodshed.� The same would have been true as the Papacy extended its dominion over Europe.� Afterwards the persecutions�within Europe would have decreased and the attention of the Papacy would have been directed more towards extending its domain beyond Europe.� But even a population growth rate of 36 percent is not necessarily high; the entire world population grew by almost 50 percent between 1700 and 1800.
From 1400 to 1500 persecutions�in Europe�had largely died down, and the population�growth rate was nearly 36 percent.� The population growth from 1200 to 1300 was almost identical, suggesting that persecutions had largely died down then as well because most of the �heretics� had been eliminated already and the Inquisition�had not really gotten started.� Therefore the value of 36 percent from 1200 to 1300 can be taken as a base value in the absence of persecution.� Thus the deficits in population growth due to persecution and the Black Death�would have been 14 percent from 1000 to 1100, 5 percent from 1100 to 1200, none from 1200 to 1300, 60 percent from 1300 to 1400, none from 1400 to 1500, and 12 percent from 1500 to 1600.� Adding these up gives a total of 63.6 million people, of whom 20 million can be attributed to the Black Death and 43.6 million to persecution.� Actually, because Europe had less than one fourth of the total world population, it seems doubtful that half of the worldwide deaths from the Black Death would have occurred in Europe.� A figure of 10 million instead of 20 million for this would mean 53.6 million deaths were attributable to persecution.� This is not too far from the common estimate of 50 million killed in Europe.� Adding in 15 million for the New World�almost exactly duplicates Brownlee�s estimate of 68.5 million.� Of course, the total would have been higher because there was also persecution when the population growth was 36 percent.�� In addition, the persecutions before 1000 when the Papacy was extending its domain over Europe are not counted.
Concerning the Black Death, Robertson�writes
This �Black Death� (as it was called) is said to have carried off at least a fourth of the population�in the countries which it visited.
[footnote] This is Hecker�s estimate, and he puts the whole loss at 25,000,000 (29).� Others say a third, three-fifths, or more. � The �Eulogium Historiarum� makes the loss in England�one-fifth (iii. 213).
-- James C. Robertson, History of the Christian Church, Vol. VII, The Young Churchman Co., 1904, pp. 161-162.
The wide divergence in the figures shows a lack of real data about the magnitude of the loss.� However, the figure for England, dealing with a smaller area, is probably more reliable.
Despite the differences, there are remarkable similarities in the population�growth patterns in Europe�and the world as a whole from 1000 to 1800.� In all centuries except the twelfth through fourteenth, the population growths were very close, except possibly for the fifteenth.� The population growths of the fourteenth century would have been very close but for the Black Death.� This suggests that there was some common driving force for these rates of population growth.� It seems unlikely that this could have been climactic or political or technological in nature because of the considerable diversity all over the world.� However, the global reach and policies of the Papacy provides such a unifying factor.� An increase in persecutions�would affect population trends the world over.� Furthermore, the worldwide decline in the power of the Papacy from the sixteenth century onwards would have had a global effect.
The differences in population�growth in the twelfth and thirteenth centuries may be attributable to the tremendous growth of the Waldenses, who became like the sand of the sea, without number.� By following a Biblical lifestyle, they would have had low infant mortality and disease rates, long lives, and substantial wealth.� The entire world population grew by nearly a factor of four in the twentieth century, and the Waldenses may have been increasing at about the same rate in Europe.� Thus there could have been many millions of Waldenses throughout Europe.� Such a large population group would have posed a tremendous threat to the Papacy and would have motivated the setting up of the Inquisition.� Even in the thirteenth century, millions of them may have been killed in the Inquisition, in addition to the 25 million or more estimated to be killed by persecution in Europein the fourteenth century.
These population�figures may actually underestimate the death toll by a significant factor.� If someone is killed who is past child bearing age, his death will likely have only a temporary effect on the population.� Someone who is killed after having half of their children will have half of the long term effect on the population as someone who is killed before having any of their children, on the average.� Therefore, the total death toll could easily be double that indicated above.� Furthermore, the possessions of those who die will be redistributed among those who remain, which will tend to cause the population to grow somewhat faster than normal.� In addition, the base figure for population growth could easily have been taken as 50 percent or higher instead of the values given above.� This is especially true because of many millions, perhaps 45 million, killed in Europe in the Counter-Reformation�after 1517 and before 1700.� Therefore the population figures permit, and even invite, the conclusion that the death toll due to persecution in the Middle Ages�is astronomical, and many times larger than 50 million.
