Does Open Carry Cause Problems?

[Say it aint so]

The more the US as a nation moves towards an increase in unfettered gun access, the more problems it will create.
It's not rocket science.

Study Finds Significant Increase in Firearm Assaults in States that Relaxed Conceal Carry Permit Restrictions​

A new study by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health found that the average rate of assaults with firearms increased an average of 9.5 percent relative to forecasted trends in the first 10 years after 34 states relaxed restrictions on civilians carrying concealed firearms in public. ​

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[Hentenza]

The more the US as a nation moves towards an increase in unfettered gun access, the more problems it will create.
It's not rocket science.

Study Finds Significant Increase in Firearm Assaults in States that Relaxed Conceal Carry Permit Restrictions​

A new study by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health found that the average rate of assaults with firearms increased an average of 9.5 percent relative to forecasted trends in the first 10 years after 34 states relaxed restrictions on civilians carrying concealed firearms in public. ​

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The study that you posted has one inherent problem in that they are not using actual numbers but statistical modeling. It’s nothing more than a mental exercise.

“The researchers used advanced statistical modeling to estimate what would have happened if the laws had not changed. Rates of violent crime for each of the 34 states adopting shall issue concealed carry laws in the analysis were then compared to the best “synthetic controls”—predicted crime rates derived from data from eight states that had restrictive permitting requirements in place throughout the study period.”

 

[Lost4words]

So why did Jesus ask the disciples to sell their cloak and buy one?

What has that got to do with weapons?

 

[Hentenza]

What has that got to do with weapons?

A sword is a weapon.

 

[Say it aint so]

The study that you posted has one inherent problem in that they are not using actual numbers but statistical modeling. It’s nothing more than a mental exercise.

“The researchers used advanced statistical modeling to estimate what would have happened if the laws had not changed. Rates of violent crime for each of the 34 states adopting shall issue concealed carry laws in the analysis were then compared to the best “synthetic controls”—predicted crime rates derived from data from eight states that had restrictive permitting requirements in place throughout the study period.”

Actual numbers show the same trend

 

[RDKirk]

Those who say that open carry of guns causes no problems should consider something that happened in Jacksonville, FL, last December. Deputies pulled a man over and ordered him out of the car. He had a gun in a holster. The Deputies decided that was legal. (I’m not so sure.) Still, they did not want to talk to an armed man at a traffic stop. One Deputy tried to lift the gun out of the holster. Maybe it was a tight fit, and did not come out easily. Deputy Mindy Cardwell wound up shooting driver Jason Arrington in the leg with his own gun.

It should not have come out easily. A good open-carry holster will be specifically designed not to release the gun except from the proper angle and with the proper manipulation of the person wearing it.

This is a point of serious contention. On one hand, I can understand an officer being uncomfortable talking to someone wearing a firearm. At the same time, I think if the situation was significant enough to order the suspect out of the vehicle, it was probably serious enough to have the suspect disarm himself, even if under the drawn weapon of the officer.

 

[RDKirk]

Personally I believe that any and all "carry" makes us less safe, and I think that all those who read the Gospels with an open heart and mind would heed Jesus' message about non-violence.

Broken Arrow seems like a great place to live, and I would guess it's an affluent suburb of Tulsa. I think that it's a great place to live because fewer people are carrying--not because they carry.

I once read that people are mourning the end of the "gun 'culture?'" T'hey are growing up in suburban and urban areas and aren't going hunting.

Fewer college educated people own guns. Fewer suburbanites and urban dwellers own guns. People who grew up in a gun-free atmosphere don't own guns. Gun ownership is least prevalent in the northeast.

I'm proof positive. Grew up in the northeast, had a dad who never fired a gun after WWII ended, grew up in the suburbs (was born in the city), college-educated and married someone who is also a college grad. My children never owned guns, either (although they did fish a little as children, they never hunted.)

And so Broken Arrow, although (I'm sure) Republican and located in the south, has lots of demographics indicating non-gun ownership. How fortunate you are to live there.

The demographics of gun ownership

Understanding gun ownership in America is not as simple as knowing who does and does not own a gun. Some Americans who don’t personally own guns live with

www.pewresearch.org

That whole post is more about affluence than guns.

 

[Say it aint so]

A sword is a weapon.

Oddly enough, and to my knowledge and feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but that Luke sword blurb is not found any other of the Gospels.

 

[RDKirk]

The more the US as a nation moves towards an increase in unfettered gun access, the more problems it will create.
It's not rocket science.

Study Finds Significant Increase in Firearm Assaults in States that Relaxed Conceal Carry Permit Restrictions​

A new study by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health found that the average rate of assaults with firearms increased an average of 9.5 percent relative to forecasted trends in the first 10 years after 34 states relaxed restrictions on civilians carrying concealed firearms in public. ​

​

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That study was more nuanced than you are presenting it. For instance:

The study found that moving to less restrictive laws was associated with a 24 percent increase in the rate of assaults with firearms (12.75 per 100,000) when individuals convicted of violent misdemeanors were eligible to obtain concealed-carry licenses. The researchers also found that states with shall issue laws that had live-fire firearm safety training requirements did not see the significant increases in firearm assaults that were estimated for states that lacked such requirements.

So, yes, it is less safe when laws permit people previously convicted of violent misdemeanors to carry guns. And, yes, it is less safe when live-fire safety training is not required. That does not mean when carry is permitted but persons are required to have live-fire training and persons previously convicted of violent crimes are not permitted also results in an increase in firearm assaults.

Let's also remember that "firearm assaults" include cases where a woman was threatened by a man, "brandished" a weapon, but the incident went no further than that.

 

[Hentenza]

Oddly enough, and to my knowledge and feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but that Luke sword blurb is not found any other of the Gospels.

Yes it only appears in Luke but that doesn’t change the fact. The gospels are witness accounts so they are bound to have variations.

 

[Hentenza]

Actual numbers show the same trend

The numbers are still somewhat skewed. The cause of increases in firearm fatalities or assaults is multifactorial so attempting to pin causation on one cause or two causes is problematic at best.

 

[Say it aint so]

That study was more nuanced than you are presenting it. For instance:



So, yes, it is less safe when laws permit people previously convicted of violent misdemeanors to carry guns. And, yes, it is less safe when live-fire safety training is not required. That does not mean when carry is permitted but persons are required to have live-fire training and persons previously convicted of violent crimes are not permitted also results in an increase in firearm assaults.

Let's also remember that "firearm assaults" include cases where a woman was threatened by a man, "brandished" a weapon, but the incident went no further than that.

Yes. States that have eased restrictions have seen an increase. Look at Texas for example and the increase of road rage gun assaults. Those states who are easing restrictions are not ones that would require live fire training.

 

[Say it aint so]

Yes it only appears in Luke but that doesn’t change the fact. The gospels are witness accounts so they are bound to have variations.

Yes, of course. There are going to be variations. There are going to be contradictions. But that variation is a outlier.

 

[Say it aint so]

The numbers are still somewhat skewed. The cause of increases in firearm fatalities or assaults is multifactorial so attempting to pin causation on one cause or two causes is problematic at best.

No one is saying it is one cause. What I am saying as gun restrictions become less a thing, then expect more gun violence.

 

[Hentenza]

No one is saying it is one cause. What I am saying as gun restrictions become less a thing, then expect more gun violence.

I’m not saying that it is not possible but I’m having a problem with by which extent if any. Statistics can be manipulated to support a political agenda.