Creationism Decreasing in the USA?

[Notedstrangeperson]

Gallup's latest poll on the evolution / creationism controversy, published June 2012, shows that believe in creationism has remained relatively stable over the last 30 years, with 46% of adults believing in creationism (God creating humans in their present form within the last 10,000 years).

(source: Gallup.com)

However a separate far more recent source, Pew Forum, December 2013, indicated a sudden decrease in the number of adults who believe "humans have existed in their present form since the begining" - only 33%:

(source: Pewforum.org)


What do you think? Has belief in creationism really dropped so dramatically in the space of a year? If so, why? Or are the two sources too different to compare - maybe the way their phrased their questions lead to different results?

--------------

NOTES: The links themselves go into far greater detail about how the data was collected, along with other data such as political alignment and greater detail about religious associated, such as church attendance and denomination, race and education level.

Both sources only look at Christian viewpoints, with Pew Forum including an "unaffiliated" category. Other religious groups do not appear to have been included.

Both sources also describe their methodologies of collecting data.

 

[bhsmte]

Gallup's latest poll on the evolution / creationism controversy, published June 2012, shows that believe in creationism has remained relatively stable over the last 30 years, with 46% of adults believing in creationism (God creating humans in their present form within the last 10,000 years).

(source: Gallup.com)

However a separate far more recent source, Pew Forum, December 2013, indicated a sudden decrease in the number of adults who believe "humans have existed in their present form since the begining" - only 33%:

(source: Pewforum.org)


What do you think? Has belief in creationism really dropped so dramatically in the space of a year? If so, why? Or are the two sources too different to compare - maybe the way their phrased their questions lead to different results?

--------------

NOTES: The links themselves go into far greater detail about how the data was collected, along with other data such as political alignment and greater detail about religious associated, such as church attendance and denomination, race and education level.

Both sources only look at Christian viewpoints, with Pew Forum including an "unaffiliated" category. Other religious groups do not appear to have been included.

Both sources also describe their methodologies of collecting data.

Yep, the United States is pretty much on it's own in regards to advanced countries and so many still believing in creation. Other advanced countries in europe/Scandinavia have far fewer in the creation camp.

I do think how the question is asked, can produce dramatically different results as well.

 

[Notedstrangeperson]

Something else to compare: Theistic Evolution


Gallup:

• As of June 2012, people who believed in theistic evolution (defined here as "Humans evolved, with God guiding") made of 32% of the responses.
• Atheistic or deistic evolution (defined as "Humans evolved, but God had no part in the process") made up only 15% of the responses.

Pew Forum:

• As of December 2013, 60% of adults believed in evolution.
• Only 24% of evolutionists believed a "Supreme being guided evolution"
• However 32% of evolutionists believed in "Evolution due to natural process".
  • Note that only 60% of the people who believed in evolution actually answered this question. The remaining 40% answered "Don't Know".

So is theistic evolution also decreasing, or are the differences between the two responses due to the way the questions were asked?

 

[Papias]

NSP wrote:

What do you think? Has belief in creationism really dropped so dramatically in the space of a year? If so, why? Or are the two sources too different to compare - maybe the way their phrased their questions lead to different results?

Creationism has not dropped so dramatically in the past year. The differences are due to phrasing and methodology. We've seen this in a number of polls - depending on the phrasing, the % creationist varies from the upper 30's to the upper 50's.

However, you can look at trends with the same polling group, such as the Gallup data alone. From that, it is clear that atheistic evolution is increasing, but other conclusions are hard to see*.

More on that at the end of this post.

Similarly, you can compare Pew data across. Here is a poll from them from 2006 which puts creationism at 42%, TE at 21%, and atheistic evolution at 26%. Compared to the YEC 33%, TE 24% and atheistic ev 32% you gave from Pew today, that says that:

2013 - 2006:
Creationism is declining (33-42 = -9)
TE is stable, maybe increasing a bit. (24-21 = +3)
atheistic evolution is increasing (32-26 = +6)



Science in America: Religious Belief and Public Attitudes | Pew Research Center's Religion & Public Life Project

From my TE standpoint, this seems to support the idea that creationism drives people from Christianity, so they go from creationism to atheism, and hence creationism declines and boosts atheistic evolution. Others may disagree.

Gallup mostly shows the same thing, except for the last data point.

Have a good day-

-Papias

P. S.
* More on that last gallup data point.

First guess as to why it seems to buck the trends: It's likely just noise.

Second guess: If not just noise, then it should be noted that this point was taken at the height of the gay marriage controversy, right when the military dropped DADT, and right after the President said his views on gay marriage were "evolving" (!), and polls showed millions of Americans were changing to a tolerance of gays. With that timing, I wonder if many of those Americans who were just deciding to tolerate gays, and then were asked if they supported the Biblical view of creation, tended to support the literalist view to "compensate", in their own minds - a way to help soothe themselves that they were still good and holy?

If so, then the next data point from gallup will be interesting to see.

 

[Notedstrangeperson]

I do think how the question is asked, can produce dramatically different results as well.

The differences are due to phrasing and methodology.

Out of interest, why do you think "God created humans in present form" (Gallup) generated more creationist responses than "Humans existed in pesent form since the begining" (Pew)?

 

[FredHoyle]

Creationism will die because of the Internet, young people can find out the answers to questions their parents were unable to ask.

 

[SkyWriting]

Creationism will die because of the Internet, young people can find out the answers to questions their parents were unable to ask.

Because we can trust the internet.

Do you have any data to support your claim? I look forward to reading it.

 

[FredHoyle]

Because we can trust the internet.

Do you have any data to support your claim? I look forward to reading it.

I don't know how old you are but if you have time just wait and see.

Let's put it this way, I think you would agree that just because someone tells you something is true does not mean that it actually is true, if our parents were told that something was true and everyone around them said it was true how would they find out if it really was true? the truth is they wouldn't, because if all of the people they could ask thought it was true they ended up believing it was true as well.
The Internet allows people to look outside of their communities for answers (right or wrong) that no one else can give them, it allows them to read and hear what other people in the world think and believe, religious fundamentalism grows when people are trapped in a blinkered and closed society, 'if everyone believes it then it must be true',
we both know that's not true.

I assume that you believe there is a Christian God, in fact you might even go as far as to say that you know there is a Christian God, (just how you would without any evidence is beyond me) please tell me, what would happen to your God if all the Bibles in the world suddenly disappeared? how long do you think your God would be around? two generations? then your Christian God would be as real for people as Zeus is now, it would be a case of lose the book, lose the god.
It's not going to happens so it's just something to think about.

 

[Seipai]

Because we can trust the internet.

Do you have any data to support your claim? I look forward to reading it.

Sadly most creationists are like that girl in the ad you referred to. It is not that we can trust the internet. It is that there are valid and invalid sources on the internet. A wise person learns how to tell the difference between the two. Creationists tend to follow any site that agrees with them

Creationists want to believe that their sites are a "French model" when they are simply a "fat ugly slob wearing a fanny pack backwards".

 

[Notedstrangeperson]

The Internet allows people to look outside of their communities for answers (right or wrong) that no one else can give them, it allows them to read and hear what other people in the world think and believe, religious fundamentalism grows when people are trapped in a blinkered and closed society, 'if everyone believes it then it must be true',
we both know that's not true.

I'm highly doubtful the internet will decrease belief in Creationism for three reasons:

Firstly, while there is a lot of information on the internet, there is also a great deal of misinformation. There are plenty of creationists websites which exist solely to "refute" evidence of evolution.

Secondly, the nature of internet groups and online forums makes it very easy for people to ban others who do not agree with their points of view. Rather than talking to people they otherwise would never talk to, they are simply excluded for not belonging to their particular group.

Thirdly, remember than only a third of the world's population has internet access - an most of them come from wealthy, developed, Western nations. We are still only getting answers from groups of people who are very similar to us already. Even if in the future the rest of the world gradually gains internet access, language will still be a problem.

I assume that you believe there is a Christian God, in fact you might even go as far as to say that you know there is a Christian God, (just how you would without any evidence is beyond me) please tell me, what would happen to your God if all the Bibles in the world suddenly disappeared? how long do you think your God would be around? two generations? then your Christian God would be as real for people as Zeus is now, it would be a case of lose the book, lose the god.
It's not going to happens so it's just something to think about.

If all the Bibles in the world suddenly disappeared, Christianity would still have 2,000 years of history to fall back on. Christians have undergone severe persecution in many countries for thousands of years - it's ridiculous to assume it would disappear so suddenly if the Bible itself did.

Considering that a third of the world's population is Christian, it's safe to say that (for the moment) Christianity is more global than the internet.

 

[Papias]

NSP wrote:

Originally Posted by Papias

The differences are due to phrasing and methodology.

Out of interest, why do you think "God created humans in present form" (Gallup) generated more creationist responses than "Humans existed in pesent form since the begining" (Pew)?

Oh, and hi again NSP, it's great to read your posts (mostly referring to the OP, etc, of course - your post above is just a quick question).

My guesses (and I'll admit from the start they are guesses, quite unlike data-based posts).

For one thing, most/many people are pretty knee-jerk, so the "God" in the gallup question will both cause a positive feeling as well as put people in "religion -mode", and hence more likely to think of the question in term of genesis instead of in terms of evidence. So yes, I think just the phrasing there is enough to account for a 10% difference.

Secondly, gallup inc. is a conservative Christian organization. That may affect their methodology, interpretation, and such. This was clear in the 2012 pres. election, where Gallup consistently overstated Romney's support, as compared to the basket of polls and analysis by Nate Silver.

Thirdly, Pew is a pretty liberal organization. I didn't see any clear evidence of a slight tilt as with Gallup - since Pew doesn't do presidential polls AFAIK, but still, I don't rule out some tilt there.

There could be differences in methodology such as landline/cell phones that is important too, since more traditional people are more likely to still have things like landlines, stone-wheeled flintstone cars, and so on. So a more landline based poll might show more creationism.

So we've got a 13 pt difference. If the real number on Gallup is, say, 39, not 46 (see my "gay effect" post) and a couple years later (gallup gave 40 before that), then it's a 6 point difference. If noise (variation), phrasing, biases, and methods each cause a point or two each (easy to do), then that accounts for all of the difference.

-Papias

 

[FredHoyle]

Considering that a third of the world's population is Christian, it's safe to say that (for the moment) Christianity is more global than the internet.

A third of the population say they are Christians but most of them don't believe half of what you believe,
most are not creationists so don't take the bible literally, are they Christians? are Mormons Christians?
are Catholics Christians? what does a Christian really believe? most British people identify themselves as being Christians (C of E) but few of them actually believe in a god and even fewer attend a church other than for weddings or funerals, Christianity is more about tradition in the UK rather than actual belief.

The US has about 75 - 80% of people who say they are Christians which we all know is wrong because saying you're a Christian is not the same as being a Christian, how many say it just to keep Christians off their back or keep their jobs? loving Christians only love other Christians, saying you don't believe to a Christian is like saying that you think they are stupid, that's how sure Christians are of their faith, that's why US Christians hate Atheists, it's as if Atheists make US Christians feel stupid for wanting to believe something they really shouldn't believe.

 

[Notedstrangeperson]

For one thing, most/many people are pretty knee-jerk, so the "God" in the gallup question will both cause a positive feeling as well as put people in "religion -mode", and hence more likely to think of the question in term of genesis instead of in terms of evidence.

Oddly enough, I would have Gallup would have less Creationist responses, considering one of their options was "God created humans beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so". That timeframe would immediately rule out any Old-Earth Creationists or ID supporters.

In the same way, I would also have though Pew would have generated more responses from theistic evolutionists, since one of their options was a "supreme being" guided evolution, rather than "God". Even people who claim to have no religion often they say believe in a supreme being or univeral spirit.

I think you're right about methodology though - Gallup almost always uses telephone and face-to-face interviews, whereas Pew also uses sources from official organizations (which is why I personally prefer Pew Forum). However in these particular cases both studies were conducted solely by telephone interviews, so the methodology doesn't seem all that different.

BTW, I was under the impression both Gallup and Pew were both secular and non-partisan. Am I wrong?

A third of the population say they are Christians but most of them don't believe half of what you believe,
most are not creationists so don't take the bible literally, are they Christians? are Mormons Christians? are Catholics Christians? what does a Christian really believe?

For the sake of data collection (I use Pew Forum as a reference) Mormons and Jehovah's Witnesses are considered Christians - but of course, Pew Forum isn't a philosophical or theological organization, so they aren't really going to argue about who the "true" Christians are.

The US has about 75 - 80% of people who say they are Christians which we all know is wrong because saying you're a Christian is not the same as being a Christian, how many say it just to keep Christians off their back or keep their jobs? loving Christians only love other Christians, saying you don't believe to a Christian is like saying that you think they are stupid, that's how sure Christians are of their faith, that's why US Christians hate Atheists, it's as if Atheists make US Christians feel stupid for wanting to believe something they really shouldn't believe.

Only about 12% of the world's Christian population lives in North America - which includes not just the religious USA, but also Mexico and the more secular Canada.

Interestingly a few years ago (2009) Pew did another study looking at how many people actually call themselves atheists. Out of the 5% of the population who said they "do not believe in God or a universal spirit", only 14% of them called themselves Christians.

This means a total of merely 0.7% of the USA population call themselves "Christians" even though they don't believe in God.

Long story short, the amount of "cultural Christians" in the USA is so small compared to the number of Christians worldwide, it would probably be considered statistically insignificant.

 

[Seipai]

Oddly enough, I would have Gallup would have less Creationist responses, considering one of their options was "God created humans beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so". That timeframe would immediately rule out any Old-Earth Creationists or ID supporters.

In the same way, I would also have though Pew would have generated more responses from theistic evolutionists, since one of their options was a "supreme being" guided evolution, rather than "God". Even people who claim to have no religion often they say believe in a supreme being or univeral spirit.

I think you're right about methodology though - Gallup almost always uses telephone and face-to-face interviews, whereas Pew also uses sources from official organizations (which is why I personally prefer Pew Forum). However in these particular cases both studies were conducted solely by telephone interviews, so the methodology doesn't seem all that different.

BTW, I was under the impression both Gallup and Pew were both secular and non-partisan. Am I wrong?


For the sake of data collection (I use Pew Forum as a reference) Mormons and Jehovah's Witnesses are considered Christians - but of course, Pew Forum isn't a philosophical or theological organization, so they aren't really going to argue about who the "true" Christians are.



Only about 12% of the world's Christian population lives in North America - which includes not just the religious USA, but also Mexico and the more secular Canada.

Interestingly a few years ago (2009) Pew did another study looking at how many people actually call themselves atheists. Out of the 5% of the population who said they "do not believe in God or a universal spirit", only 14% of them called themselves Christians.

This means a total of merely 0.07% of the USA population call themselves "Christians" even though they don't believe in God.

Long story short, the amount of "cultural Christians" in the USA is so small compared to the number of Christians worldwide, it would probably be considered statistically insignificant.

A slight math error on your part, the number would be 0.7% not 0.07%.

 

[Notedstrangeperson]

A slight math error on your part, the number would be 0.7% not 0.07%.

Yup, just noticed. My bad.

 

[Papias]

NSP -
Yep, all good points.

You wrote:

BTW, I was under the impression both Gallup and Pew were both secular and non-partisan. Am I wrong?

I'm not sure. Gallup's Editor in Cheif (Frank Newport) is an outspoken Southern Baptist who graduated from Baylor University (a conservative Christian school that supports creationism) and wrote a book suggesting that belief in God isn't declining (when it clearly is, regardless of what you and I think of that). To be clear, Gallup polls are still useful and valuable, and I don't know how much the Editor in cheif's (or others at the groups) views matter. I do know that Nate rated them as one of the more biased poll sources (in their case, biased in favor of Republicans - they actually had Mit beating Obama in 2012) when he reviewed the different poll sources.

As for Pew, I think they are secular, non-partisan, and reliable. I have heard people refer to them as "liberal", but I don't know if there was any basis to that. I was mostly mentioning that to be balanced, I guess. Everything I've seen suggests they are even handed, and data driven.

Papias

 

[SkyWriting]

I don't know how old you are but if you have time just wait and see.

I am old enough to have heard the same lame fantasy about
television, and then public television, about library access
and a few more acid trip ideas.

I'm also old enough to have studied what actually does help
people change their mind. It's interaction with humans
and generally face to face. You loose. Fantasy over.
Try being scientific next time and support your dreams with
facts and research.

 

[FredHoyle]

I don't know how old you are but if you have time just wait and see.

I am old enough to have heard the same lame fantasy about
television, and then public television, about library access
and a few more acid trip ideas.

I'm also old enough to have studied what actually does help
people change their mind. It's interaction with humans
and generally face to face. You loose. Fantasy over.
Try being scientific next time and support your dreams with
facts and research.

Then you're old enough to know that creationist communities do not allow outside influences to come in,
they ban as much as they can even down to sex education and teaching evolution,
the Internet will allow young people to get around those bans and give them access to people with different views and ideas, something their parents never had because they were locked into their community.

You are absolutely right about how people change their minds, it's interaction with other humans and generally face to face, today they can have that in spades, the Internet will give them access to thoughts and ideas that could not be imagined only ten years ago, what the future will be like is mind blowing, religions and creationism in particular will also be blown away, even communities will not be the same because people will be more diverse in their thinking and will communicate online with like minded people from all over the planet and the language they speak will be English.

Here's two little snippets for you, there are more Chinese people speaking and leaning to speak English than there are English speaking people in the world. (not counting the Chinese of course)
There are 1.3 billion Chinese which is more than the number of people in Europe and the US put together.

 

[Notedstrangeperson]

You are absolutely right about how people change their minds, it's interaction with other humans and generally face to face, today they can have that in spades, the Internet will give them access to thoughts and ideas that could not be imagined only ten years ago, what the future will be like is mind blowing, religions and creationism in particular will also be blown away, even communities will not be the same because people will be more diverse in their thinking and will communicate online with like minded people from all over the planet and the language they speak will be English.

Here's two little snippets for you, there are more Chinese people speaking and leaning to speak English than there are English speaking people in the world. (not counting the Chinese of course)
There are 1.3 billion Chinese which is more than the number of people in Europe and the US put together.

You're partly correct - the internet (to a certain extent) is allowing people access to ideas they would have have had access to before. But there are two mistake in your assumption that this will result in religion being "blown away":

The first is that, as you say, there are more people in China learning to speak English than there are people in the USA and Europe. In fact there are more people learning English as a second language than there are native English-speakers.
But how many Western people do you see learning Manderin? Nowhere near as many I would guess. That means that the World is becoming more Westernised rather than globalized. This could be because (as I said before) the majority of nations which have internet access tend to be developed, Western, English-Speaking countries.

The second point, which relates to the first, is that Christianity is growing in China despite their government's efforts to keep it down. Indeed one day they reckon there will be more people going to church in China than in the USA. It's another symptom of Westernization.

So again - the rise of the internet will not lead to the downfall of Christianity or religion as a whole. Quite the opposite it seems.

 

[Aman777]

You are absolutely right about how people change their minds, it's interaction with other humans and generally face to face, today they can have that in spades, the Internet will give them access to thoughts and ideas that could not be imagined only ten years ago, what the future will be like is mind blowing, religions and creationism in particular will also be blown away, even communities will not be the same because people will be more diverse in their thinking and will communicate online with like minded people from all over the planet and the language they speak will be English.

Dear Readers, I've read the end of the story and the above doesn't fit. The internet also allows God's Truth to be told, in counter to the Lies of Evolutionism. The argument between the Scoffers (Evols) of the last days and Bible believers shows that the Scofffers will be "willingly ignorant" that the first world was totally destroyed in the Flood and that our world will be burned. ll Peter 3:3-7 Evols find it Impossible to refute God's Truth, as is demonstrated on these boards, every day.

BTW, When Jesus returns, it's to stop Humankind from becoming extinct:

Jesus:>>Mat 24:22 And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect's sake those days shall be shortened.

Thus is the True future of Humankind, no matter how many rosy pictures are painted by the Scoffers of the last days. Beware the words of those who worship at the Altar of Godless Evolutionism. God Bless you.

In Love,
Aman