I hope and expect the death toll to be lower than this and definitely lower than your calculations. The other question is, what does "total" mean? On what date should we count the totals?They are looking at about 60K deaths total,
If you checked the links the poster was referring to deaths in the U.S..I hope and expect the death toll to be lower than this and definitely lower than your calculations. The other question is, what does "total" mean? On what date should we count the totals?
Yes, of course.If you checked the links the poster was referring to deaths in the U.S..
We'll wait and see what the stats are like by end of May, thenThe links show deaths projected based upon full social distancing through May.
Right, although the range of possible values is 31K - 127K. If you look at the pattern that would lead to 31K, it looks sort of implausible.I doubt it too, but I think at 400k confirmed cases, you can already 'bank' around 40k fatalities if you stopped all new cases coming in and waited 4 weeks for them all to resolve. A wild guess might put us around 500 - 600k confirmed cases in this wave if things settle down and don't really explode in other heavily population centers. Government models are showing expected ~60k fatalities now, but I'm not sure what expected fatality rate they are using and they don't really show the expected confirmed numbers.
I guess if we assume 80% mild, 20% need hospital care, they are anticipating needing 95K beds at peak. So they are anticipating roughly 95 / .2 = ~475k confirmed cases at peak before things start to drop and we get less and less cases coming in. Seems roughly right, or we might not get there. But you'd probably have ballpark 600K cases by the end of it as things tail off.
They are looking at about 60K deaths total, so it seems to me like they are expecting about a 10% fatality rate from 600k cases confirmed, with 20% of those confirmed cases requiring hospitalization and 50% of those hospitalized being potential fatalities. Also seems about right to me.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Yes, the picture is slowly clarifying as cases resolve. This tracker also lists critical cases:
View attachment 274348
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,346,566 Cases and 74,697 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
We are down to 82 active cases, 10 of which are in critical condition. While some could still take a turn for the worse, that is overall pretty good news this far out. We did have one additional death, however. We are at a 1.5 percent rate now.
As a worse case scenario, if all 10 of those in critical condition were to pass then we would be at around 2.9 percent. However, studies out of China, etc. suggest that about half of those in critical condition recover. I hope they all do. In any case, we are starting to form a range for this particular sample. And most scenarios are starting to look better than the initial WHO estimates, even with the elevated age in the sample.
Who said that every single person in the US has been exposed to COVID-19? I certainly didn't.
In a different thread, about 2 wks ago, I wrote that I expected 20,000-25,000 deaths in the US. The comments I received were expecting 200,000 to 2,000,000 deaths. I think, for good reasons, that the death toll will be nowhere near 200,000 in the US. The curve is already starting to flatten out and we haven't reached 25,000. Thank God.
US may become virus epicentre
Right, although the range of possible values is 31K - 127K. If you look at the pattern that would lead to 31K, it looks sort of implausible.
I disagree about "no sign of the death rate going down". The first thing that needs to go down is the number of new cases. And we have seen not only a flattening of the curve when it comes to new cases, the number of new cases per day has dropped. Social distancing is working:We're past 25K and are still losing nearly 1500+ more people per day. There's no indication of that death rate going down anytime soon.
Definitely going to be well over 31K, i'd be shocked if it was less than 50K. I wouldn't be surprised if it was over 100K.
I hope i'm wrong, but I don't see anything which suggests the death rate will drop significantly within the next week (and at current rates, we'll be over 35K dead at that time).
I disagree about "no sign of the death rate going down". The first thing that needs to go down is the number of new cases. And we have seen not only a flattening of the curve when it comes to new cases, the number of new cases per day has dropped. Social distancing is working:
United States Coronavirus: 613,886 Cases and 26,047 Deaths - Worldometer
Scroll down and you can see a graph of daily new cases. It peaked April 10. Also if you go to the graphs of total deaths and click on the logarithmic version you can see a definite flattening. It is too soon to quit the measures that we have right now, but there is an end in sight.
That is a great site. You can also cases/death per 1 mil population which is telling. The US is #20 on that list.
I disagree about "no sign of the death rate going down". The first thing that needs to go down is the number of new cases.
Yes, we are past 25K deaths in the US. But the point is that we're nowhere near the 200,000 - 2,000,000 figure that others have suggested:We're past 25K and are still losing nearly 1500+ more people per day. There's no indication of that death rate going down anytime soon.
Definitely going to be well over 31K, i'd be shocked if it was less than 50K. I wouldn't be surprised if it was over 100K.
I hope i'm wrong, but I don't see anything which suggests the death rate will drop significantly within the next week (and at current rates, we'll be over 35K dead at that time).
Yes, we are past 25K deaths in the US. But the point is that we're nowhere near the 200,000 - 2,000,000 figure that others have suggested:
US may become virus epicentre
In many countries, current social isolation measures will expire by 5/11 or 5/12. I hope by then that at least some of the measures will be lifted.
Yes, we are past 25K deaths in the US. But the point is that we're nowhere near the 200,000 - 2,000,000 figure that others have suggested:
US may become virus epicentre
In many countries, current social isolation measures will expire by 5/11 or 5/12. I hope by then that at least some of the measures will be lifted.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?