climate "scientist" predict weather will become more unpredictable.

[spartacus1984]

climate "scientist" predict weather will become more unpredictable.
or are climate "scientist" just bonkers?

when climate "scientist" can’t even accurately predict what the weather will be like 10 days from now.

Why shouldn’t everyone just laugh at them and their predictions.

 

[Standing_Ultraviolet]

Saying that the weather will become more unpredictable means that we will see increasingly unusual weather patterns. For example, more droughts in parts of the world, more storms (and more violent storms) in others, etc. The climate is a complex system, and so any interference with it will produce complex and varied results.

As far as climatologists not being real scientists, as the wording in the OP suggests, this seems to take an extremely negative view of the idea that global warming is anthropogenic. The evidence for anthropogenic global warming is strong enough to convince the majority of PhD scientists who work in related fields. Reasons for denying it vary, but unfortunately politics seems to have much to do with it, with some evidence to actually back up that statement coming from Environment Magazine:

dunlap-mccright-figure1

In the U.S., at least, which has a high percentage of conservative religious individuals relative to other western countries (a percentage which I am a part of, before you criticize me for bashing America or conservatism), most of these tend to be involved in the U.S. Republican Party for historical or moral reasons. With candidates and a majority base opposed to the idea that climate change is anthropogenic, I believe that a lot of these people are convinced that this is true, and that they transmit it to other conservative Christians who may not be as willing to accept the idea coming just from politicians.

I would encourage you to look at the evidence from an entirely non-biased source based on the work of peer-reviewed climatologists. Claiming to be non-biased does not make something so; being peer-reviewed usually helps.

 

[AV1611VET]

Saying that the weather will become more unpredictable means that we will see increasingly unusual weather patterns.

What is an 'unusual weather pattern'?

You mean one that makes your computers go 404?

Do you guys write the book on what is 'usual' and 'unusual'?

If weather patterns are 'unusual', was Jesus' resurrection 'unusual'?

Don't get me wrong. I agree that weather patterns are unusual -- the key word being 'pattern'.

When the pattern is broken, then it is 'unusual'.

 

[pdudgeon]

just watched part of a program on this last night, the basis for which was data from a NASA Langly report from 2009 regarding weather occurences and astronomical features of solar activity in 2012.

guess what....they agreed with the Bible written centuries beforehand.

 

[Nabobalis]

climate "scientist" predict weather will become more unpredictable.
or are climate "scientist" just bonkers?

when climate "scientist" can’t even accurately predict what the weather will be like 10 days from now.

Why shouldn’t everyone just laugh at them and their predictions.

Huh? Maybe a link would be useful, also learning the difference between weather and climate would also be useful. Btw, a meteorologist predicts the weather.

 

[Nabobalis]

just watched part of a program on this last night, the basis for which was data from a NASA Langly report from 2009 regarding weather occurences and astronomical features of solar activity in 2012.

Sounds like something the "History" Channel would show. Far as I'm aware nothing major will happen in 2012 regarding solar activity.

 

[AV1611VET]

Huh? Maybe a link would be useful, also learning the difference between weather and climate would also be useful. Btw, a meteorologist predicts the weather.

Rick pointed out that the difference is that a meteorologist deals with short-term weather models, which are highly unpredictable; whereas climatologists deal with long-term weather models, which can be averaged out.

(Rick, please correct me here if I misstated -- thank you.)

 

[Nabobalis]

Rick pointed out that the difference is that a meteorologist deals with short-term weather models, which are highly unpredictable; whereas climatologists deal with long-term weather models, which can be averaged out.

(Rick, please correct me here if I misstated -- thank you.)

That sounds right about right. But I didn't mean you

 

[spartacus1984]

Huh? Maybe a link would be useful, also learning the difference between weather and climate would also be useful. Btw, a meteorologist predicts the weather.

It may be useful for you to learn that climate "scientist" and meteorologist Use the same computer programs and algorithms to make their predictions. And also I don’t know of any other field in which such incompetence is tolerated. The 10 day weather forecast is so inaccurate it should come with a health warning. Therefore anyone that doesn’t just laugh at climate "scientist" and their predictions, need to have their head examined Immediately.

 

[Standing_Ultraviolet]

If weather patterns are 'unusual', was Jesus' resurrection 'unusual'?

Unusual is, pretty much by definition, "not usual". By this standard then yes, Jesus' resurrection certainly was unusual. In human experience, it's abnormal for dead people not to stay that way. Miracles are, by definition, unusual.

It may be useful for you to learn that climate "scientist" and meteorologist Use the same computer programs and algorithms to make their predictions. And also I don’t know of any other field in which such incompetence is tolerated. The 10 day weather forecast is so inaccurate it should come with a health warning. Therefore anyone that doesn’t just laugh at climate "scientist" and their predictions, need to have their head examined Immediately.

Weather and climate are two drastically different things. Here is a link to a website that addresses the arguments that you made. It probably wouldn't be the type of thing that I would normally recommend to a climate change skeptic, but it actually addresses the specific question that you've brought up here. It describes the differences in data used to show climate change and data used to predict the weather, and describes the reasons why weather is unpredictable while climate is more reliable.

The difference between weather and climate

 

[leftrightleftrightleft]

It may be useful for you to learn that climate "scientist" and meteorologist Use the same computer programs and algorithms to make their predictions. And also I don’t know of any other field in which such incompetence is tolerated. The 10 day weather forecast is so inaccurate it should come with a health warning. Therefore anyone that doesn’t just laugh at climate "scientist" and their predictions, need to have their head examined Immediately.

Interestingly enough, the idea that meteorologists cannot predict weather is a bit of a myth in itself. If you actually observe the predictions they are generally fairly accurate as far as when precipitation is supposed to come, when a cold front is supposed to hit, etc. They may not be bang on as far as the precise high or low for the day, nor will they be precisely accurate about the hour and minute that these things occur, but they've actually gotten remarkably accurate in the last ten years or so.

The myth that they are so terrible at predicting weather has persisted despite the fact that computer modeling and understanding of weather using computers has increased a great deal in the last twenty years.

 

[spartacus1984]

leftrightleftrightleft

Is this just what you believe or do you have any evidence of how inaccurate 10 day weather forecast are?

How accurate are the weather forecasts?


because I don’t know of any other field in which such incompetence is tolerated.

 

[DaisyDay]

Weather and climate are two drastically different things. Here is a link to a website that addresses the arguments that you made. It probably wouldn't be the type of thing that I would normally recommend to a climate change skeptic, but it actually addresses the specific question that you've brought up here. It describes the differences in data used to show climate change and data used to predict the weather, and describes the reasons why weather is unpredictable while climate is more reliable.

The difference between weather and climate

That's only useful for those with intellectual curiosity.

 

[DaisyDay]

leftrightleftrightleft

Is this just what you believe or do you have any evidence of how inaccurate 10 day weather forecast are?

How accurate are the weather forecasts?


because I don’t know of any other field in which such incompetence is tolerated.

Perhaps that's why meteorologists are unreliable commentators on global warming.

 

[AV1611VET]

Unusual is, pretty much by definition, "not usual". By this standard then yes, Jesus' resurrection certainly was unusual. In human experience, it's abnormal for dead people not to stay that way. Miracles are, by definition, unusual.

I totally agree --

 

[acropolis]

It may be useful for you to learn that climate "scientist" and meteorologist Use the same computer programs and algorithms to make their predictions. And also I don’t know of any other field in which such incompetence is tolerated. The 10 day weather forecast is so inaccurate it should come with a health warning. Therefore anyone that doesn’t just laugh at climate "scientist" and their predictions, need to have their head examined Immediately.

The same thing that makes weather reports only useful out to about 10 days is the same issue that makes small changes in weather variables such as temperature very dangerous and unpredictable: weather systems are chaotic. I mean chaotic in the mathematical sense, not in the usual sense. The sensitivity of the system is such that even minute differences in the initial conditions can bring wildly different results within a short amount of time.

Why is it that this issue has become so politicized? Why are conservatives so upset by these scientific results, to the point of ignoring any information that supports global warming? Scientists certainly don't care about the political ramifications of the evidence, they just gather it and analyze it. If the data happens to be inconvenient for a political party that's entirely incidental. You guys realize that choosing not to believe in something doesn't make it any more is less likely to happen, right? Science is one of the only methods that is at all accurate in making good, solid predictions about the future so there is good reason to pay attention to it.

 

[RickG]

climate "scientist" predict weather will become more unpredictable.
or are climate "scientist" just bonkers?

when climate "scientist" can’t even accurately predict what the weather will be like 10 days from now.

Why shouldn’t everyone just laugh at them and their predictions.

Climate scientists don't predict weather, they field of work is with climate. The two are quite different.

However, what they to recognize is that as GAT increases, so does the probability that weather events can become more chaotic and extreme. There are many examples of this already.

 

[RickG]

Rick pointed out that the difference is that a meteorologist deals with short-term weather models, which are highly unpredictable; whereas climatologists deal with long-term weather models, which can be averaged out.

(Rick, please correct me here if I misstated -- thank you.)

Thank you AV, that is quite correct. If I may add, climate is defined as a trend of 30 years or greater.

 

[RickG]

It may be useful for you to learn that climate "scientist" and meteorologist Use the same computer programs and algorithms to make their predictions. .

No they don't.

 

[RickG]

Perhaps that's why meteorologists are unreliable commentators on global warming.

Most meteorologist do under the principles of global warming, however the high profile ones we always hear about denying GW are in complete denial and don't even seem to know their meteorology. They are also "broadcast" meteorologist who don't have the intense physics and mathematics background required to earn a degree in meteorology other than broadcast meteorology (TV weatherman), rather than atmospheric science. Two that come to mind are John Coleman and Anthony Watts.