Climate change: A predictive challenge

[[serious]]

As some of you may remember, a number of years ago I posted a thread discussing a predicted slowdown of global warming expected to last a number of years. In that thread, I also predicted that those that deny climate change is happening would see such prediction bear out, ignore that it was an expected result of an anticipated change in ocean cycles. In the years since, we've seen that born out. Temperature rise has briefly leveled off, and we've seen a rash of "gloabl warming pause" threads.

So here's my challenge. What will happen over the next 10 years?

Here are my predictions: Over the next 10 years,
1. We will set at least 1 all time highest global temperature anomaly.
2. We will see at least 4 years that are within the 10 hottest years on record.
3. There will be no years in the 10 coldest years on record
4. There will be no years under the 1950-1980 mean.

As a bonus, I'll even predict that with next years expected el nino, it will end up in the top 5 hottest. This one is less certain, but I'll take a risk and stick it out there.

Your turn. What do YOU think will happen over the next 10 years.

 

[crjmurray]

Hopefully new episodes of South Park will be still be written.

 

[dgiharris]

Here are some graphs to help your thread. (I love graphs )

 

[eclipsenow]

Love it, and following with gleeful anticipation.

 

[essentialsaltes]

July 2015 was the hottest ever.

 

[Michael]

I watched a Michael Mann video recently. The political witch hunts that he was put through were simply disgusting. Science really shouldn't be politicized, particularly not something this important. What annoys me the most however is that the only industry that benefits from this kind of political nonsense is the oil industry and I can't help but wonder if they aren't simply funding those witch hunts.

He pointed out that later studies have verified his findings. I loved his comment about it going from a single hockey stick to a whole hockey league over the past few years. How anyone can deny the effects of all that C02 that we pumped into the atmosphere over the past 100+ years is beyond me. The cherry picking of data is just ridiculous.

I'll hedge my bets a little on point 2, and I'll predict that 3 of the next 10 will be the hottest years on record rather than 4, but the rest of your predictions look pretty right on the money. I do think that the sun has a bit of an impact as well, and it seems to be cooling off a bit over the past decade, hence my hedge on point 2.

 

[Heissonear]

Nice post. Good straight forward predictions.

But you have yet to rule out natural factors explain their possibly.

Inferring that CO2 is doing the temperature increase is a claim, with assumptions that natural factors do not have account as in the past Earth warming.

For example, Earth experienced the escalation of Grand Solar Maximum from about 1780 to about 1980, with inertia lag in heat loss from the oceans occurring since about 1980. With Grand Solar Minimum initiated, evidenced by a very quite sun at a day to a week long periods of no sunspots during the active portion of the current solar cycle (24), the Grand Solar Minimum should bring a cooling phase for Earth, and if so the Earth should continue to cool over the next two decades, due to the natural factors associated with solar activity.

See below satellite picture for tofay from NOAA and observe in the photo how in August 2015 in the U.S. early fall is in progress. Yes, the U.S. has offically began cooling: notice in the photo the second cool front is starting to dip through the mid to east portion of U.S. by the Polar jetstream.

You may claim an El Nino or possibly two may come along and release additional heat from the oceans in the next couple of years, and meet your predictions of highest Earth temperature on record since the LIA, but in a decade the slope of Earth's atmospheric temperature should be heading down, for decades.

Earth's temperature has already "deviated" from GCM projected temperatures and by 2025 the deviation should, due to effects on Earth's response to Grand Solar Minimum, be even more pronounced deviation from IPCC published GCM Earth temperature projections.

Your prediction to 2025 may have little weight in a decade an the decade that follows (2025 to 2035).

Nobody can predict the future but can by looking at the recent past natural factors project possibilities for the near future.

You made some viable predictions, but they may not not carry weight twenty years from now, with the thermal inertia lag in ocean heat release completed and solar induced cooling in more full progress by 2025, based on observed evidence of recent changing of Grand Solar Maximum to current initiation of Grand Solar Minimum (solar observations).

Excuse my typo's, I use a 2.5 inch wide keyboard most of the time. ☺

 

[Michael]

FYI, Heissonear posted this link in another thread and the author does make predictions based on his assertions. Based on his model, he predicts a record cold period will occur from about 2025 to about 2050. I found the video to be a bit long, but also interesting and worth watching whether you agree with the methods used or not.

http://notrickszone.com/2015/08/12/...teorologist-extremely-cold-from-2025-to-2050/

 

[DaisyDay]

As some of you may remember, a number of years ago I posted a thread discussing a predicted slowdown of global warming expected to last a number of years. In that thread, I also predicted that those that deny climate change is happening would see such prediction bear out, ignore that it was an expected result of an anticipated change in ocean cycles. In the years since, we've seen that born out. Temperature rise has briefly leveled off, and we've seen a rash of "gloabl warming pause" threads.

So here's my challenge. What will happen over the next 10 years?

Here are my predictions: Over the next 10 years,
1. We will set at least 1 all time highest global temperature anomaly.
2. We will see at least 4 years that are within the 10 hottest years on record.
3. There will be no years in the 10 coldest years on record
4. There will be no years under the 1950-1980 mean.

As a bonus, I'll even predict that with next years expected el nino, it will end up in the top 5 hottest. This one is less certain, but I'll take a risk and stick it out there.

Your turn. What do YOU think will happen over the next 10 years.

I'm not betting against you.

Throw in that the West Coast is going to have major flooding with the El Nino this winter.

 

[[serious]]

Nice post. Good straight forward predictions.

But you have yet to rule out natural factors explain their possibly.

Inferring that CO2 is doing the temperature increase is a claim, with assumptions that natural factors do not have account as in the past Earth warming.

For example, Earth experienced the escalation of Grand Solar Maximum from about 1780 to about 1980, with inertia lag in heat loss from the oceans occurring since about 1980. With Grand Solar Minimum initiated, evidenced by a very quite sun at a day to a week long periods of no sunspots during the active portion of the current solar cycle (24), the Grand Solar Minimum should bring a cooling phase for Earth, and if so the Earth should continue to cool over the next two decades, due to the natural factors associated with solar activity.

See below satellite picture for tofay from NOAA and observe in the photo how in August 2015 in the U.S. early fall is in progress. Yes, the U.S. has offically began cooling: notice in the photo the second cool front is starting to dip through the mid to east portion of U.S. by the Polar jetstream.

You may claim an El Nino or possibly two may come along and release additional heat from the oceans in the next couple of years, and meet your predictions of highest Earth temperature on record since the LIA, but in a decade the slope of Earth's atmospheric temperature should be heading down, for decades.

Earth's temperature has already "deviated" from GCM projected temperatures and by 2025 the deviation should, due to effects on Earth's response to Grand Solar Minimum, be even more pronounced deviation from IPCC published GCM Earth temperature projections.

Your prediction to 2025 may have little weight in a decade an the decade that follows (2025 to 2035).

Nobody can predict the future but can by looking at the recent past natural factors project possibilities for the near future.

You made some viable predictions, but they may not not carry weight twenty years from now, with the thermal inertia lag in ocean heat release completed and solar induced cooling in more full progress by 2025, based on observed evidence of recent changing of Grand Solar Maximum to current initiation of Grand Solar Minimum (solar observations).

Excuse my typo's, I use a 2.5 inch wide keyboard most of the time. ☺


View attachment 162144

I've got no problem looking out further that 10 years. What I'm reading in your post, and correct me if I'm wrong, is:
1. You think over the next 10 years global temperatures will remain relatively constant and
2. over the 10 years after that they will begin to fall.

I'll predict out further as well:
1. I think over the next 10 years we will see an increase in warming, bringing us back in line with the continuation of long term trends. Technically, where I originally posted this 7 years ago, I'm just restating the second half of my 20 year prediction. To put a number on it, I'm expecting a warming of .2-.4 degrees over the next decade.
2. To push it out further, the following decade I expect to see warming of an additional .1-.3 degrees.

We can look at them as a 10 year running average. Would you like to put specific numbers on your predictions?

 

[Michael]

I've got no problem looking out further that 10 years. What I'm reading in your post, and correct me if I'm wrong, is:
1. You think over the next 10 years global temperatures will remain relatively constant and
2. over the 10 years after that they will begin to fall.

According to David Dilley from globalweathercycles.com, his model suggests that global cooling should begin around 2019, and reach it's coldest part of the cycle from about 2025-2050. If you go to about the 44 minute mark of that video he gets into his predictions. He's also suggesting that it's "typical" for volcanic activity to occur during that cooling phase. According to his model, the gravitational stresses from changing lunar cycles will cause at least one large volcanic event during that cooling phase that helps to facilitate the cooling process. If you look at his graph, he's suggesting that typically happens somewhere at the bottom of that cycle, so probably 2030ish?

 

[Michael]

If I'm reading his graph at the 31 minute mark correctly, he's predicting increasing global temperatures until 2019. That is where the heating cycle peaks, and the cooling cycle begins. Later in the video he states the 2019 date, and his graph also has that year marked on his graph, so that seems to be where the global warming peak occurs and the change also occurs in his model.

 

[[serious]]

If I'm reading his graph at the 31 minute mark correctly, he's predicting increasing global temperatures until 2019. That is where the heating cycle peaks, and the cooling cycle begins. Later in the video he states the 2019 date, and his graph also has that year marked on his graph, so that seems to be where the global warming peak occurs and the change also occurs in his model.

Ok, so I've got you down for 5 years warming, then cooling from there on out.

 

[Michael]

Ok, so I've got you down for 5 years warming, then cooling from there on out.

No, I'm just explaining what I believe *David* is predicting. I tend to be on your side of this debate actually. I'd assume we're going to blow the roof off the temps with this kind of C02 pollution. Even without global warming, I'm against this kind of C02 pollution in fact. The continuous release of carcinogens into the air is anything but healthy IMO.

I will say that I "enjoyed" David's presentation in the sense that I thought it was one of the better "anti-consensus" presentations I've seen, and one of the more comprehensive in the sense that it tries to look at Earth's "normal" cycles, but I remain unconvinced of his method.

 

[[serious]]

No, I'm just explaining what I believe *David* is predicting. I tend to be on your side of this debate actually. I'd assume we're going to blow the roof off the temps with this kind of C02 pollution. Even without global warming, I'm against this kind of C02 pollution in fact. The continuous release of carcinogens into the air is anything but healthy IMO.

I will say that I "enjoyed" David's presentation in the sense that I thought it was one of the better "anti-consensus" presentations I've seen, and one of the more comprehensive in the sense that it tries to look at Earth's "normal" cycles, but I remain unconvinced of his method.

Ah, ok. My mistake.

 

[Heissonear]

I've got no problem looking out further that 10 years. What I'm reading in your post, and correct me if I'm wrong, is:
1. You think over the next 10 years global temperatures will remain relatively constant and
2. over the 10 years after that they will begin to fall.

I'll predict out further as well:
1. I think over the next 10 years we will see an increase in warming, bringing us back in line with the continuation of long term trends. Technically, where I originally posted this 7 years ago, I'm just restating the second half of my 20 year prediction. To put a number on it, I'm expecting a warming of .2-.4 degrees over the next decade.
2. To push it out further, the following decade I expect to see warming of an additional .1-.3 degrees.

We can look at them as a 10 year running average. Would you like to put specific numbers on your predictions?

I like your specific temperature predictions. You have put down what your accumulated learning and observations have you conclude.

You may be right, through extension of the temperature increase clearly documented in the 1900's (with man's best foot forward measurements tallied).

As stated earlier, I project based on the Grand Solar Minimum and Maximum observed over the past ~300 years as being in a natural repeat mode cycle, with Grand Maximum having occurred in ~ 1980 and thermal inertia lag of heated oceans at near peak at the present, with a possible release of additional heat through a couple of El Nino', like the El Nino currently in progress. In the next 5 years further ocean heat release could pattern and show Earth temperature increase numbers you specified, another 0.1 to 0.2 °C, but as recorded through GOES or HadCRUT data stations. I think the UH Satalite measurements to be less than 0.1. All numbers listed occurring by 2025 and possibly 2020.

Since cooling has already been occurring in oscillations of heat observed followed by cooldown in different geographic locales, the Earth thermal adjustments of post Grand Solar Maximum have released a lot of accumulated heat - so further increase in Earth's temperature may not occur over the nrxt 2 to 4 year duration, such as El Nino 0.1° C spike by 2017 with La Nina land and ocean cooling period counteracting a potential El Nino 0.1 spike back to net 0° C by 2020 to 2022 under present post Grand Solar Maximum rate of natural climate systems cooling adjustments.

It is a wait and see what the change in magnetic currents of the sun will bring, the activity decent rate in to Grand Solar Minimum. If the cooling decent is as sharp as a Maunder Minimum of the past then in 5 years there should be an obvious and measured global cooling initiated, and a trend line in cooling by about 2025. The science literature shows others trying to determine the magnitude of solar activity decent rate; one reference is available here: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html

If the rate and degree of Solar magnetic activity reduction is in line with a Dalton Minimum then less cooling early, within the next 10 years, and less steep cooling trend in 20 to 40 years from present.

In numbers, a Dalton Minimum could bring 1.0 to 1.5 °C drop in global temperatures, and a Maunder Minimum could bring a minimum of 2.0°C global temperature reduction. And "Glacier Bay" in Alaska will show glacial advancement, but most likely less than the year 1650 expansion size.

Again, I'm not a predictor of the future, but like others base projections from acquired information and past Earth records flux in Earth's temperature.

If Anthropogenic CO2 emissions "Global Warming" theory shows observations of being true then it's magnitude (solar forcing) will be better understood over the Grand Solar Minimum, a Dalton Minimum or a Maunder Minimum. However, in observations of temperature variations seen so far since 1980, and more particularly the thermal lag adjustments observable since ~1998, CO2 net forcing is "estimate" (more data please!) to be less than 0.8°C per doubling of CO2 concentration, and from what I've been able to observe is looking most likely to be around 0.3°C per CO2 concentration doubling. The next 20 years will sharpen these estimates further.

We can record clear projections now, and reference later, for determining what real world control Anthropogenic CO2 emissions has on "Global Warming", and the degree of how natural factors have continued.

We just seen +100 ppm CO2 emissions piggybacking the 1900's Grand Solar Maximum conditions and such showed no un-natural rate of Earth warming than what expected natural factors induce, even the peak of Earth's climate parameters adjusted and responding to Grand Solar Maximum in our day and age.

The future is to be seen, as we look forward into time through intelligence and learning.

 

[eclipsenow]

And "Glacier Bay" in Alaska will show glacial advancement, but most likely less than the year 1650 expansion size.

Ha ha ha! Good luck with that, because the trends so far with glaciers have been pretty clear.

Image from wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850

 

[Heissonear]

I like how Serious is serious about stating specific predictions. I followed suit, presenting a proposed hypothesis that historic natural factors exhibited over the past ~300 years are in recycle mode with specific predictions of cooling to come.

True science is based on hypothesis that have specific predictions or repeatable experiments that verify or falsify the hypothesis claims.

For that reason this is a good thread.

Since scientists can differ, it is a challenge at first, but over time one of the differing scientific hypothesis will be confirmed and the other falsified by the stated confirming and falsifying predictions. Leaving room "to change" when proven wrong is integrity and not a weakness.

 

[[serious]]

I'm going to try and trim this down to your specific predictions:

In the next 5 years further ocean heat release could pattern and show Earth temperature increase numbers you specified, another 0.1 to 0.2 °C, but as recorded through GOES or HadCRUT data stations. I think the UH Satalite measurements to be less than 0.1. All numbers listed occurring by 2025 and possibly 2020.

OK, 5 years net increase of .1-.2 C

so further increase in Earth's temperature may not occur over the nrxt 2 to 4 year duration, such as El Nino 0.1° C spike by 2017 with La Nina land and ocean cooling period counteracting a potential El Nino 0.1 spike back to net 0° C by 2020 to 2022 under present post Grand Solar Maximum rate of natural climate systems cooling adjustments.

Or 5 years no net increase

If the cooling decent is as sharp as a Maunder Minimum of the past then in 5 years there should be an obvious and measured global cooling initiated, and a trend line in cooling by about 2025.
...
If the rate and degree of Solar magnetic activity reduction is in line with a Dalton Minimum then less cooling early, within the next 10 years, and less steep cooling trend in 20 to 40 years from present.

In numbers, a Dalton Minimum could bring 1.0 to 1.5 °C drop in global temperatures, and a Maunder Minimum could bring a minimum of 2.0°C global temperature reduction. And "Glacier Bay" in Alaska will show glacial advancement, but most likely less than the year 1650 expansion size.

Or a drop in temperatures?

You just predicted that over the next 5 years, temperatures will either increase, stay the same, or decrease.

Is there anything you would like to do to hedge your bets a little more? Maybe predict that California's drought will either get better, get worse, or stay the same?

 

[Michael]

Ah, ok. My mistake.

No problem. It was an honest mistake, and the way that I presented the material made it very easy to misinterpret my motive. I've also been known to defend a minority position a time or two.