Calling any weather forecaster.

[godisagardener]

Our local forecasters do a decent job. The only things that irk me are:

1) They forecast too far in advance, for whatever reason. Two weeks is too far ahead to look. Too much can change, and they normally admit that. Why they do it anyway is beyond me.

2) They use too many "models" ... "According to xxx model this will happen, according to yyy model it won't be as bad." I think they must do it so that whatever happens, they can say they were right.

3) And we have weather on two local channels, but they're never the same. The highs and lows will be several degrees different, the rain percentage will be different, etc.

I think my husband's arthritis is the best predictor!

 

[Halbhh]

It's really difficult to make intermediate range and location specific forecasts (2-9 days), unless there is a major set of prevailing atmospheric conditions dominating.

Just wanted to highlight this point, with repetition.

This is the main thing that makes some forecasting at intermediate range relatively more likely to be accurate. Where I used to live in my childhood down in the south central plains, it was very often that when there was a weather pattern it would last very many days, unchanging, even the wind. Often the wind would be only changing a little day after day for many days in a row, remaining from about the same direction for day after day, etc. But here where I live now it's the opposite: it's very unusual hear near a great lake for the wind to stay the same even 7 hours except only when a strong front moves through and then you might get a whole day of wind staying about the same. It's so very unlike where I grew up.

On a somewhat related aspect to your post in general, you may be interested in that possibility I touched on in post #15 above, that there might be (as suggested in Bell Test experiments about causality) also a physics limit (which we have not gotten close to hitting yet, not by far) that some future day (perhaps still far in the future) will probably limit forecasts to never become better after that point of computation and data fineness is achieved and forecasts have improved a lot -- they will probably then hit that new limit on the time horizon accuracy. But even then, they would be vastly improved over today, I expect.

 

[eleos1954]

Is it just here or is it possible there is a person that can predict the weather in your part of the world?
,Ours are good at predicting the rain if they're standing in it,,.it's frustrating year after year.
Is it that difficult?

Where I live it is very difficult to predict the weather ... I think major weather systems are pretty much predictable ... sometimes the severity of them is not exactly correct .... but even so ... if they are predicted best to prepare if possible.

Where I live ... I go with this .... if it's dominantly cloudy (significant cloud cover) there is a chance for rain .... beyond that it's a crap shoot.

 

[returntosender]

Where I live it is very difficult to predict the weather ... I think major weather systems are pretty much predictable ... sometimes the severity of them is not exactly correct .... but even so ... if they are predicted best to prepare if possible.

Where I live ... I go with this .... if it's dominantly cloudy (significant cloud cover) there is a chance for rain .... beyond that it's a crap shoot.

That's sad, why bother going to school for it then.

 

[returntosender]

Just wanted to highlight this point, with repetition.

This is the main thing that makes some forecasting at intermediate range relatively more likely to be accurate. Where I used to live in my childhood down in the south central plains, it was very often that when there was a weather pattern it would last very many days, unchanging, even the wind. Often the wind would be only changing a little day after day for many days in a row, remaining from about the same direction for day after day, etc. But here where I live now it's the opposite: it's very unusual hear near a great lake for the wind to stay the same even 7 hours except only when a strong front moves through and then you might get a whole day of wind staying about the same. It's so very unlike where I grew up.

On a somewhat related aspect to your post in general, you may be interested in that possibility I touched on in post #15 above, that there might be (as suggested in Bell Test experiments about causality) also a physics limit (which we have not gotten close to hitting yet, not by far) that some future day (perhaps still far in the future) will probably limit forecasts to never become better after that point of computation and data fineness is achieved and forecasts have improved a lot -- they will probably then hit that new limit on the time horizon accuracy. But even then, they would be vastly improved over today, I expect.

It shouldn't be that hard for the day they are in. Plus it appears they copy each other.

 

[eleos1954]

That's sad, why bother going to school for it then.

To get a better idea about it .... weather depends on many things ... and those things are subject to change .... that is not to say we shouldn't try not to predict it .... like I said warning of major storms, tornados, hurricanes etc are very beneficial and I'm glad they are able to give us "heads up" about that .... as far and not being accurate about non threatening rain ... who cares? Worst that might happen is you might get wet.