Calling any weather forecaster.

[returntosender]

Is it just here or is it possible there is a person that can predict the weather in your part of the world?
,Ours are good at predicting the rain if they're standing in it,,.it's frustrating year after year.
Is it that difficult?

 

[durangodawood]

The future is one of the most difficult things to predict.

 

[returntosender]

I guess all their training means nothing then.

 

[durangodawood]

I guess all their training means nothing then.

They do pretty well where I am, considering theyre trying to anticipate local conditions for a specific time that result from complex interactions. Maybe where you are the weather is just more naturally chaotic?

 

[returntosender]

Az, always hot. Which is easy but rain or no, they never get it right. They're good with degrees but that's about all.

 

[returntosender]

I need to get one of those things you used to see a lot of. Round and wood with dials that hung in house or out?
Barometer?

 

[durangodawood]

Az, always hot. Which is easy but rain or no, they never get it right. They're good with degrees but that's about all.

Ah. Desert summer monsoon storms arent like a whole wet front that blankets an entire region. Theyre more isolated units - so who knows precisely where theyll develop? Thats my understanding from also living where they occur.

 

[returntosender]

I don't buy it. There are plenty of signs and equipment and meters, etc.

 

[Tinker Grey]

Weather Forecast Accuracy for Phoenix, Arizona

5-day weather forecast for Phoenix, Arizona in a nice, easy to read format, AND the 1- to 3-day out accuracy of other weather forecasters (Accuweather, The Weather Channel, MyForecast.com, Intellicast, and the National Weather Service) including links to their forecasts.

forecastadvisor.com

 

[timothyu]

This independent is pretty good, especially on the long range although the secrets to forecasting he gives away have been stifled lately

https://www.youtube.com/c/POWPonderonWeather

 

[returntosender]

Weather Forecast Accuracy for Phoenix, Arizona

5-day weather forecast for Phoenix, Arizona in a nice, easy to read format, AND the 1- to 3-day out accuracy of other weather forecasters (Accuweather, The Weather Channel, MyForecast.com, Intellicast, and the National Weather Service) including links to their forecasts.

forecastadvisor.com

Wow, very informative, thanks.

 

[returntosender]

This independent is pretty good, especially on the long range although the secrets to forecasting he gives away have been stifled lately

https://www.youtube.com/c/POWPonderonWeather

Thanks, i looked at it looks involved which is good but i need only local. I will glance in on occasion

 

[returntosender]

They just said on the news that some expert said that they don't believe the heat will go away, sigh.

 

[returntosender]

I could handle them if they weren't all excitists. They all promise rain, winds, t; and l, floods across the spectrum and then nothing. If only that would happen with all the heat they promise

 

[Halbhh]

Is it that difficult?

Yes, and it may be (looks likely) that weather forecasting might not be much improved past a certain limit (we are not at yet...) even while it will likely improve some more....

How might there be an eventual limit to forecast accuracy (someday in the future), if computers are getting ever faster....and continue to improve in the future?

Because in physics it appears more and more likely that there may be at the heart of quantum behavior of particles a true randomness governed only by probabilities (only!). The probability itself is consistent and reliable, but it means the particle only has a probability of behaving a certain way, and might behave another way instead.... Such randomness would look precisely like what we see around us -- because the random fluctuations of particles naturally average out (mostly!) in general, allowing all manner of objects to reliably exist for a time (but also eventually to change over time once the time scale is long enough).

Meanwhile, today, we are not yet near that limit in forecast accuracy I think. We still have a lot of rough calculation using approximations and limited data input and such, so there is room for improvement on what we can calculate, to at least get the probabilities more accurate.

If you are lucky (or unfortunate) enough to live near a lake or mountain or such that tends to increase the complexity of local weather, your local forecasting is often going to have challenging days where it will say 20% chance of rain and you get widespread major rain, or some forecasts like we get occasionally where the forecast is 70 or 80% chance of rain and only 10% of the region even gets a drop. (ideally, 80% chance of rain would mean it rains in about 80% of the forecast broad area during the time period)

 

[timothyu]

I could handle them if they weren't all excitists.

Exactly.. ramping up the fear factor causes people to follow them closely as if they were some sort of gods and it boosts the ratings apart from following the narrative of the industrial climate industry.

 

[Blade]

Is it just here or is it possible there is a person that can predict the weather in your part of the world?
,Ours are good at predicting the rain if they're standing in it,,.it's frustrating year after year.
Is it that difficult?

Oh I remember one day I was in Collage and this friend new in the lord came in so happy said "I can control the weather". Just smiled and said really? Then he explained what happened. That didn't last long.. bless him..

Oh no I can't my watch does a kind a good job haha.. GOD IS GOOD

 

[MehGuy]

Is it just here or is it possible there is a person that can predict the weather in your part of the world?
,Ours are good at predicting the rain if they're standing in it,,.it's frustrating year after year.
Is it that difficult?

I've read that after two weeks, given modern technology weather is pretty hard to predict. Besides the obvious like "It will probably snow in December in certain regions of the world".

Regarding the news Stations I have.. they seem to be more accurate than a coin flip would attest... even if they are sometimes wrong. I don't' care much.. except during the winter months.

 

[public hermit]

I approach weather reports with a degree of incredulity. The reports around here are sufficient- south central Virginia. Growing up in East Texas, people would say wait five minutes, and it'll change. Well, they say the say the same thing here so that's nonsense. If the weather folks get it right more than not, I'm satisfied. My expectations are appropriately adjusted.

 

[Gene2memE]

Depends what you mean by forecasting.

It's relatively easy to forecast long-range broad scale regional trends based on known factors that only change across significant timescales (ocean and air currents, solar activity, apogee/perigee, axial wobble). So, saying something like "this summer will be hotter and wetter than usual thanks to a prevailing El Nino" or "this winter will be milder than usual" is not particularly difficult.

It's much more difficult to make medium range (10-60 day) forecasts, and more difficult still to make those location specific. Meteorologists can look at local air pressure differentials, soil moisture content, air moisture content, sea temperatures and a couple dozen other metrics and come up with forecasts that are pretty good when there are wide scale patterns, but not so great for any specific area. Statements like: "There is a higher than usual chance of rain for Southern Florida over the next two weeks", or "the second half of August is likely to be hot and mostly dry across the Pacific Northwest" are going to be pretty good, but it's unlikely that a specific forecast like "it will rain in the morning in Galveston on Tuesday week" is going to be accurate.

It's really difficult to make intermediate range and location specific forecasts (2-9 days), unless there is a major set of prevailing atmospheric conditions dominating. If a big low pressure front is moving in, then the forecast is likely going to include a high chance of rain, high winds and lower temperatures. If a big high pressure region is prevailing, then conditions are likely to be dry and calm. However, if the is no strong atmospheric phenomenon, the picture is a lot less certain. And the further you drill down to a specific location, the less certain the forecast will be.

Short term forecasting (6-48 hours) becomes much easier, particularly with location specific forecasts. Because weather is necessarily local and there are good historical records about weather patterns available, forecasters can look at what the weather is doing in the area and in the neighbouring areas, along with wider scale trends, look at historical patterns and make reasonably accurate forecasts. So, a forecast like "Sydney will have cool temperatures and intermittent showers this morning, with the weather clearing by early afternoon" or "Perth will have a cold morning, with a late change leading to overnight rain" will likely be highly accurate.