NOAA releases 20th Annual "Arctic Report Card". The last 10 years have been the hottest 10 years on record

Job 33:6 · Wednesday at 4:16 AM

Servus said:
Hope they don't get replaced by AI. Most of their stuff has been by way of computer already.

Just curious, if you don't believe that mankind can have an impact on climate, do you think that carbon dioxide levels rising since the industrial revolution, are of natural origins?

Graphic: The relentless rise of carbon dioxide - NASA Science

The relentless rise of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

science.nasa.gov

Perpetual Student · Wednesday at 4:24 AM

Servus said:
I don't have as much trust in the the methodology, the reliability of the data, and the conclusions drawn from those trends as others. I'm sure you'd like me to spend an hour cranking out a detailed essay on that for a handful of anonymous people to read, but I don't have any "I absolutely have nothing else better to do" time available at present.

Do you think that meteorological institutions can't measure a temperature? Do you think all of them -world wide!- fail? Because that is the implication of what you write.
And do you think meteorologists or climatologists can't read a graph? That they see rising trends where there isn't any?

Servus · Wednesday at 5:33 AM

Job 33:6 said:
Just curious, if you don't believe that mankind can have an impact on climate, do you think that carbon dioxide levels rising since the industrial revolution, are of natural origins?
View attachment 381434

Graphic: The relentless rise of carbon dioxide - NASA Science

The relentless rise of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

science.nasa.gov

There's been an impact. That's not in dispute. It's not what the data shows. That's undeniable. It's some of the conclusions or claims that I'm not convinced of. Also a plot like that is predictive. Predictive isn't always right.

Job 33:6 · Wednesday at 6:14 AM

Servus said:
There's been an impact. That's not in dispute. It's not what the data shows. That's undeniable. It's some of the conclusions or claims that I'm not convinced of. Also a plot like that is predictive. Predictive isn't always right.

Ah ok.

I think it's important to note that the impact is ongoing, in terms of data. It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would raise temperatures over decades of time. Even if just by small amounts of a degree or two.

One thing that is also interesting to note though, is that elevated concentrations of CO2 can cause cognitive delays and distinction, particularly in indoor air. Do you see that as a concern, given the amount of CO2 that we are emitting that is building up in the atmosphere?

Servus · Wednesday at 7:05 AM

Job 33:6 said:
Ah ok.

I think it's important to note that the impact is ongoing, in terms of data. It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would raise temperatures over decades of time. Even if just by small amounts of a degree or two.

One thing that is also interesting to note though, is that elevated concentrations of CO2 can cause cognitive delays and distinction, particularly in indoor air. Do you see that as a concern, given the amount of CO2 that we are emitting that is building up in the atmosphere?

Sure. But what will my concern or lack thereof result in?

Job 33:6 · Wednesday at 7:39 AM

Servus said:
Sure. But what will my concern or lack thereof result in?

Well, hopefully interest in limiting the continued increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. Perhaps through support for clean energy policies and funding. Wind energy for example has become cheaper with time and many states and countries worldwide are adopting it.

Servus · Wednesday at 7:48 AM

Job 33:6 said:
Well, hopefully interest in limiting the continued increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. Perhaps through support for clean energy policies and funding. Wind energy for example has become cheaper with time and many states and countries worldwide are adopting it.

But will my personal concern or lack thereof have any effect on that?

sjastro · Wednesday at 4:47 PM

Climate modelling as mentioned in post #101 has demonstrated substantial predictive power.

Climate models developed in the early 2000s made projections of global temperature extending to around 2020. When these projections are compared with the temperatures that were subsequently observed, they generally agree well, provided the models are evaluated using the greenhouse gas emissions that actually occurred.

These models can also be tested by running them over the historical climate record known as hindcasting. Starting from earlier conditions, they successfully reproduce many of the observed climate changes from approximately 1970 onward, including the long-term rise in global average temperature. This provides an important test of whether the models correctly represent the underlying physics of Earth's climate system.

Since then computing power has increased dramatically. Modern climate models use finer spatial grids, allowing them to represent smaller-scale features such as clouds, ocean currents, and regional weather patterns more realistically. They also include improved representations of physical processes and more observational data for validation. As a result current models are expected to provide more accurate regional and global climate projections than earlier generations.

Gene2memE · Wednesday at 9:01 PM

Servus said:
There's been an impact. That's not in dispute. It's not what the data shows. That's undeniable. It's some of the conclusions or claims that I'm not convinced of. Also a plot like that is predictive. Predictive isn't always right.

That time series isn't "predictive" - its based on observations.

Past levels are based (primarily) on ice-cores and current levels (1960s onwards) are from direct observations from sites like Mauna Loa:

Trends in CO2 - NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

GML conducts research on greenhouse gas and carbon cycle feedbacks, changes in aerosols, and surface radiation, and recovery of stratospheric ozone.

gml.noaa.gov

You can even download all the data used to make that chart from the NOAA's website:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/trace_gases/Paleo-pCO2/

FreeinChrist · 2026-07-16T14:01:54-0500

ADVISOR HAT

This thread had a large clean up of posts that are off topic, and goading or snarky and flaming and the posts that respond to those posts.

Stick to the topic. Do not make snarky or flaming comments that are meant to demean the other member. Often those comments start with a version of 'you guys'. Making flaming comments of a group is not okay. Insulting the intelligence of other members is not okay. Here are some rules to follow:

Please treat all members with respect and courtesy through civil dialogue.
Do not personally attack (insult, belittle, mock, ridicule) other members or groups of members on CF, or use nicknames to do so. A list of unacceptable names can be found here.. Address only the content of the post and not the poster.
NO Goading. This includes images, cartoons, smileys or post ratings which are clearly meant to goad. Quoting and then editing another members post to change the original meaning, commonly referred to as "fixed it for you" (FIFY), is considered goading.

Statement of Purpose and Off-Topic

Read and abide by each forum's Statement of Purpose; Statement of Purpose threads are sticky threads located at the top of the forum's page. Not all forums have a Statement of Purpose thread. Start threads that are relevant to that forum's stated purpose. Submit replies that are relevant to the topic of discussion.

Thread clean ups are a time-consuming pain for the mod staff. Thread bans can easily be done. It is tempting.

sjastro · 2026-07-16T15:45:40-0500

Continuing on the subject of how climate models lead to accurate AGW predictions as supercomputer performance has increased with time.
Supercomputer performance is measured in FLOPS or Floating Point Operations per second which is the number of mathematical calculations per second.

Approx. Period	Typical Supercomputer Performance	Climate Model Capability	Typical Horizontal Grid Size	Major Improvements
1970s	0.001–0.01 TFLOPS (1–10 GFLOPS equivalent)	Simple energy balance models	Global average	Basic greenhouse effect calculations; no realistic weather patterns
1980s	0.01–0.1 TFLOPS	First General Circulation Models (GCMs)	300–500 km	Simulated global circulation and seasonal climate
1990s	0.1–1 TFLOPS	Coupled atmosphere-ocean models	200–300 km	Oceans, sea ice and atmosphere coupled together; improved El Niño simulations
Early 2000s	1–10 TFLOPS	Models used in IPCC Third & Fourth Assessment Reports	100–200 km	Carbon cycle introduced; improved cloud and aerosol physics; better regional climate
Around 2004	10–30 TFLOPS	CMIP3 generation	100–150 km	Produced projections later compared successfully with observed warming through about 2020
2010–2015	100–1000 TFLOPS (0.1–1 PFLOPS)	CMIP5 models	50–100 km	Higher resolution, better rainfall, hurricanes, sea ice, monsoons
2020	10–100 PFLOPS	CMIP6 models	25–50 km	More sophisticated cloud physics, aerosols, chemistry, land vegetation and ice-sheet interactions
Today (2026)	Hundreds of PFLOPS to over 1 EFLOPS	Next-generation Earth System Models	5–25 km (regional models even finer)	Resolving thunderstorms directly in some models, better extreme weather, improved regional forecasts, much larger ensembles

The increase in computing power has been one of the main reasons climate models have become more accurate. Greater computing capacity allows models to use finer grid spacing, include more physical processes, run larger ensembles of simulations, and better represent clouds, oceans, sea ice, and atmospheric chemistry.

Pommer · 2026-07-16T16:00:40-0500

Oh lookie another article that will be hand-waved away, (this one deals with tipping-points).

rjs330 · 2026-07-16T23:06:28-0500

Servus said:
There are billions of wild animals doing what farm animals do. Devouring farting and pooping all over the earth. As for growing crops what's supposed to be the alternative?

Remember all the buffalo? Covering the plains with poop and farts.

rjs330 · 2026-07-16T23:30:29-0500

All this arguing is irrelevant. It doesn't matter. What matters is we cannot do anything about it. What we can do is figure out ways to try and mitigate the effects for now.

The climate is changing and has been since the last ice age. Its been getting warmer. The industrial revolution with few guardrails only lasted a short time. We have had guardrails on stuff for longer than we didn't. And right now we have more than ever. Does no one ever ask if there is any other possibility? Something we have no idea about? Since when have we become all knowing when it comes to this stuff? We are making a LOT of assumptions and coming to a lot of conclusions about things. But that is what we do as humans. And what we have always done. We are so sure of ourselves. We think we are so smart when the fact is we have been wrong on SO many things. Yet we are always convinced we are right. Then we make stupid decisions from those wrong things. And this especially works when it comes to doom and gloom. Just look at what occurred in the last pandemic and how we we all so willing to do stuff that in the end turned out to be completely wrong headed or unnecessary. We love to panic. And when we are so worried about what is going to happen we start making decisions out of fear instead of taking a step back and taking a measured approach.

It has been shown the if we shut down all our vehicles and factories, it won't make enough of a difference to stop anything. No I am not saying we should just pollute away. No one wants to breath dirty air or drink dirty water. Let's keep our air and water clean because that is better for us.

Someday we will all die, but it wont be from climate change. We will adapt as we have always done. This is just a blip.in the eons of time. Actually caused by natural phenomenon. Us humans juat love to blame it on ourselves in a panic.

Stopped_lurking · 2026-07-16T23:48:13-0500

rjs330 said:
All this arguing is irrelevant. It doesn't matter. What matters is we cannot do anything about it. What we can do is figure out ways to try and mitigate the effects for now.

The climate is changing and has been since the last ice age. Its been getting warmer. The industrial revolution with few guardrails only lasted a short time. We have had guardrails on stuff for longer than we didn't. And right now we have more than ever. Does no one ever ask if there is any other possibility? Something we have no idea about? Since when have we become all knowing when it comes to this stuff? We are making a LOT of assumptions and coming to a lot of conclusions about things. But that is what we do as humans. And what we have always done. We are so sure of ourselves. We think we are so smart when the fact is we have been wrong on SO many things. Yet we are always convinced we are right. Then we make stupid decisions from those wrong things. And this especially works when it comes to doom and gloom. Just look at what occurred in the last pandemic and how we we all so willing to do stuff that in the end turned out to be completely wrong headed or unnecessary. We love to panic. And when we are so worried about what is going to happen we start making decisions out of fear instead of taking a step back and taking a measured approach.

It has been shown the if we shut down all our vehicles and factories, it won't make enough of a difference to stop anything. No I am not saying we should just pollute away. No one wants to breath dirty air or drink dirty water. Let's keep our air and water clean because that is better for us.

Someday we will all die, but it wont be from climate change. We will adapt as we have always done. This is just a blip.in the eons of time. Actually caused by natural phenomenon. Us humans juat love to blame it on ourselves in a panic.

"We think we are so smart when the fact is we have been wrong on SO many things. Yet we are always convinced we are right. Then we make stupid decisions from those wrong things."

Seem to go badly together with this:

"Actually caused by natural phenomenon."

Why should we believe you about this?

Also whilst climate change won't show up on any death certificate, that doesn't preclude that climate change was part of making the death come true. Think of deaths in wildfires, or in heat waves, (this is not an exhaustive list!) both of which can occur as an consequence of climate change.

Pommer · 2026-07-16T23:48:26-0500

Post#92 said:
2. Permafrost
Permafrost refers to a ground that remains frozen for at least two consecutive years and is essentially a mixture of rock, soil, sediment, ice, and organic material. Permafrost is isolated from the atmosphere by a boundary called an “active layer”, consisting of live plants in summer, with added snow in winter. The active layer transfers heat from or to the permafrost.

This permanently frozen layer below the Earth’s surface – which covers parts of Siberia, Alaska northern Canada, and the Tibetan plateau – also holds the largest global carbon reserve from plants and animals that died and decomposed over thousands of years. Scientists estimate that it contains about 1,400 billion tons of carbon, nearly double the amount present in the atmosphere.

As the climate warms and permafrost begins to thaw, carbon dioxide and methane are released into the atmosphere. The spread of these highly toxic gases, scientists warn, would add up to 0.3C to global warming and could lead to humanity reaching other tipping points of climate change much faster.

Emphasis mine.

Perpetual Student · 2026-07-17T00:33:18-0500

rjs330 said:
Remember all the buffalo? Covering the plains with poop and farts.

And how many of these buffalos were there? A few 100.000? A few millions?
Livestock (and especially ruminants outnumber all mammal wildlife by a lot. And then I mean a lot

Almost all of the world’s mammal biomass is humans and livestock

Humans and livestock make up 95% of the world’s mammal biomass; wild mammals are just 5%.

ourworldindata.org

Those three little squares in the right lower corner are all ammal wildlifes.
And then there is the question of the gut bacteria. Every species has a species specific gut biome. Do the buffalos have methane producing bacteria in their gut. I don't know. Do you?

Hans Blaster · 2026-07-17T00:39:53-0500

rjs330 said:
Remember all the buffalo? Covering the plains with poop and farts.

I don't think they are talking about American BIson, but water buffaloes and the like. They are used as beasts of burden in southern Asia, etc.

Pommer · 2026-07-17T02:12:48-0500

rjs330 said:
Remember all the buffalo? Covering the plains with poop and farts.

How do you think this “helps” your case?
In a rather successful attempt at getting Native Peoples to go where the Nation wanted them to go, people would slaughter hundreds and thousands of buffalo, depriving the aboriginal societies of their traditional sustenance. Bison were nearly wiped out completely.

The mighty herds were gone from the ~~Plains~~ whole of the north two-thirds of the hemispheres, for decades and the temperature continued to rise.

Servus · 2026-07-17T06:18:27-0500

rjs330 said:
Remember all the buffalo? Covering the plains with poop and farts.

All of the buffalo plus all of the cattle. Not to mention all of the horses.

NOAA releases 20th Annual "Arctic Report Card". The last 10 years have been the hottest 10 years on record

Well-Known Member

Fighting ignorance, one textbook at the time

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Newbie

Newbie

CF Advisory team

Statement of Purpose and Off-Topic​

Newbie

Future History Slab Carver

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Future History Slab Carver

2. Permafrost​

Fighting ignorance, one textbook at the time

Your turn, Atlanta!

Future History Slab Carver

Well-Known Member

Similar threads

Statement of Purpose and Off-Topic

2. Permafrost