essentialsaltes
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Let's Track the Economy (with objective empirical data?)
- Thread starter Akita Suggagaki
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essentialsaltes
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Jobs report shows strong hiring in March, despite oil shock set off by Iran war
The U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, according to the report[Wow. those are Biden-like numbers! Good to see something like that again.]
which marked a sharp increase from 133,000 jobs lost in the previous month.
The U.S. added an average of about 15,000 jobs per month in 2025, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed. That performance amounted to a sharp slowdown from 186,000 jobs added each month in 2024.
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essentialsaltes
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Not unexpected given where gas prices have gone, but...
The Iran conflict was the story for the monthly inflation reading, as gasoline soared 21.2%, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the headline price increase, according to the BLS.
The surge in the CPI meant that real earnings for workers decreased 0.6% for the month, as average hourly earnings rose just 0.2%. For the 12-month period, real average hourly earnings increased 0.3%.
[Core inflation [minus food and energy] was 2.6%]
Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March, as energy prices spiked due to Iran conflict
The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.9% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.3%, pushed by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The annual rate was the highest since April 2024 and up from 2.4% in February.The Iran conflict was the story for the monthly inflation reading, as gasoline soared 21.2%, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the headline price increase, according to the BLS.
The surge in the CPI meant that real earnings for workers decreased 0.6% for the month, as average hourly earnings rose just 0.2%. For the 12-month period, real average hourly earnings increased 0.3%.
[Core inflation [minus food and energy] was 2.6%]
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- Aug 18, 2012
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Imagine the economy that could have been had our leader chosen not to tariff and wage war?
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Say it aint so
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Ellesmere
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TRUMP APPROVAL RATINGS
- ELECTORATE - overall approval rating indicates that Americans broadly sour on the economy
- only 14% saying conditions are improving, down from 22% in late February (YouGov/Economist Surveys)
- REPUBLICANS - shift is especially acute among Trump’s base
- Republicans with an optimistic outlook on the economy has dropped from 50% in late February to 29%, a crushing 21% in 5 weeks
- INDEPENDENTS - Trump’s approval stood at 25% in late February, before ticking up to 31% in early March and then falling by 9% to 22% in the latest poll
RACE
- approval among white voters dropped 4 points to 41%
-Black voter support dropped to 10%
- Hispanic voter support dropped to 34%
EDUCATION
- without college degrees - Trump’s approval rating declined from 43% to 37% over the last 5 weeks weeks
- with college degrees - 32%
VOTERS UNDER 30
- only 24% approve of his performance in office, down from 32% in late February - a drop of 8% in 5 weeks
******************************************************************************************
“The long-term problem for Trump has been that views about the economy have grown more negative during his presidency,”
“When the things that you are viewed as strongest on become weaknesses, what do you have left to do to use as something to appeal to the public?”
-Geoffrey Skelley, Chief Elections Analyst at Decision Desk HQ,
**********************************************************************************************
President Trump's approval ratings and those of the Republican Party would have been much better served had he, on the day of his Inauguration, just gone golfing at one of his courses and stayed there remaining AWOL for the next 4 years! His prolonged absence might have even earned him an "honorable mention" for the Nobel Peace Prize for keeping America out of foreign wars!
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essentialsaltes
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Trump’s economy officially passes Biden’s for worst consumer sentiment in recorded history
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.6 in preliminary April 2026 readings released Friday—a 10.7% drop from March’s 53.3 and the lowest reading in the survey’s 74-year history. The figure blew past the prior record low of 50, set in June 2022 during the worst of the post-pandemic inflation crisis under President Biden, when gas prices and grocery bills were squeezing households nationwide. Three of the lowest consumer sentiment readings ever recorded have now occurred within the past nine months of Trump’s second term.
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- Jan 8, 2016
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Investors pile into US stocks as 'TINA' revival knocks 'TIARA' trades
Investors pile into US stocks as 'TINA' revival knocks 'TIARA' trades | Reuters https://share.google/iwEyjObIoX1t6CQ8K
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essentialsaltes
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A good rundown of a lot of indicators from the past month or so.
The largest monthly jump in gas prices in six decades sent consumer prices up 3.3% in March from a year earlier
The Labor Department reported earlier this month that U.S. employers added an unexpectedly strong 178,000 new jobs in March, nudging the unemployment rate back down to 4.3%. That followed a surprisingly large loss of 92,000 jobs in February. Revisions also have trimmed 69,000 jobs from December and January payrolls, a sign that the labor market remains under strain.
Employers added fewer than 200,000 jobs last year, compared with about 1.5 million in 2024, according to the data firm FactSet.
The total number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the previous week ending April 11 rose by 12,000 to 1.82 million.
US jobless claim filings rise modestly to 214,000 last week, remain at healthy levels
prices for a barrel of U.S. crude oil have settled in around $94 per barrel. That’s better than the $112 earlier this month, but still 40% higher than before the war began.The largest monthly jump in gas prices in six decades sent consumer prices up 3.3% in March from a year earlier
The Labor Department reported earlier this month that U.S. employers added an unexpectedly strong 178,000 new jobs in March, nudging the unemployment rate back down to 4.3%. That followed a surprisingly large loss of 92,000 jobs in February. Revisions also have trimmed 69,000 jobs from December and January payrolls, a sign that the labor market remains under strain.
Employers added fewer than 200,000 jobs last year, compared with about 1.5 million in 2024, according to the data firm FactSet.
The total number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the previous week ending April 11 rose by 12,000 to 1.82 million.
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essentialsaltes
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Fed’s key inflation gauge hits 3.5% as Iran war pushes up gas prices
The annual rate of inflation, which jumped from 2.8% in February, is now running at its fastest pace since May 2023.The PCE Price Index is the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target rate.
When excluding food and energy costs, prices rose 0.3% from February and 3.2% on an annual basis.
GDP rose at 2% annual rate in first quarter as U.S. economy rebounds
The U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2% in the first three months of 2026, slower than forecasters expected but a rebound from weak growth in the previous quarter, new government data shows.Business investment driven largely by the AI boom rose 8.7% on an annual basis, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. At the same time, consumer spending — which drives nearly two-thirds of economic activity in the U.S. — slowed slightly from last quarter, falling from 1.9% at the end of 2025 to 1.6%. Recent Bank of America data shows most of the growth in March was driven by higher-income households.
U.S. Debt Tops 100% of GDP
Federal debt exceeding the size of the economy is a potent symbol of the gathering fiscal stresses on the U.S.
WASHINGTON—The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold, on the way toward breaking the record set in the wake of World War II.
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GoldenBoy89
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essentialsaltes
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US long-term mortgage rate bounce back to levels seen 4 weeks ago
The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate rose again this week, reflecting ongoing bond market volatility as surging oil prices due to the war with Iran heighten inflation worriesThe benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate rose to 6.37% from 6.3% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. That’s still down from one year ago, when the rate averaged 6.76%.
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Trump's approval is never going to drop below 35 percent, even if people have to start eating dogfood and riding the bus. There's buy in and sunk costs at play.
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essentialsaltes
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U.S. employers added 115,000 jobs in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated May 8, fueling some cautious optimism about hiring even as high oil prices tied to the Iran war and rising AI adoption pose risks to the labor market.
The April estimate comes in above forecasters’ expectations, but below the department’s now-revised estimated gain of 185,000 jobs added in March. Although U.S. employers shed an estimated 156,000 jobs in February, every other monthly report so far this year has indicated hiring is trending stronger in 2026 than it was last year, when employers added only about 15,000 jobs per month on average. By comparison, U.S. employers added more than 150,000 jobs per month on average in 2024.
The April estimate comes in above forecasters’ expectations, but below the department’s now-revised estimated gain of 185,000 jobs added in March. Although U.S. employers shed an estimated 156,000 jobs in February, every other monthly report so far this year has indicated hiring is trending stronger in 2026 than it was last year, when employers added only about 15,000 jobs per month on average. By comparison, U.S. employers added more than 150,000 jobs per month on average in 2024.
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