You are right, at present, the only currency that could potentially replace the US dollar is the Euro. However, it is unlikely that Europe will challenge the United States in this regard within the next five to ten years. Despite current political tensions, Europe remains dependent on the US for defense. Perhaps in five to seven years, as Europe revitalizes its defense industry and increases its defense spending to 5%, European nations may gradually reduce their reliance on the US. If such progress continues, Europe might eventually be in a position to challenge the US dollar’s dominance, but this scenario is not foreseeable in the near term.
When the United States first elected President Trump, many in Europe and other parts of the world considered it a one-time aberration, expecting that after four years the country would return to its traditional foreign policy. However, it now appears that European countries and other allies recognize that the foreign policy associated with Trump may persist in American politics beyond his presidency. The preferences of MAGA voters suggest that this approach is likely to remain influential, and it seems unlikely that candidates similar to W. Bush or Mitt Romney will be nominated by the GOP in the near future. Another GOP president with MAGA views could return to office.
Exactly! Trump has damaged America's reliability for decades to come. It is a measure of how dopey this administration really is - in that they REALLY think they've been hard done by with regards to their leadership of NATO! (JD Vance's rantings during Signalgate show how this alternative reality they live in is believed at a gut level!) The reality is previous Presidents understood that even if NATO did not contribute their expected levels of investment - American leadership of it was a GOOD THING for America - a good earner! For a long time Presidents undermined the idea of an EU Army - as it 'competed with NATO' and 'America could supply the gaps and prevent duplication' etc. So American leadership helped various nations 'specialise' in a little bit of this, and a little bit of that. The reality? They wanted the EU divided and dependent. For decades America has poured money into their military leadership of NATO and Europe because it kept them dependent on American weapons sales that earned many dozens of times more than invested! In the last few years before Trump - America earned over
105 TIMES MORE money from weapons sales to the EU than investment in NATO! Weight that against JD Vance grumbling about 'bailing out the Europeans' again - and we begin to get a picture of how
utterly disconnected from reality this administration really is!
As a result, some U.S. allies are reassessing their security arrangements and considering greater independence or the diversification of their alliances.
Of course! They should have done it decades ago!
The EU leadership have finally woken up to what a con all this is. But it's hard to solve.
THE CHALLENGES
The EU is a Confederation of nations - not a Federation. Individual EU nation states have their own foreign policy objectives and military priorities to uphold. A truly united Military Industrial Complex with a united Command Structure can only form if the EU actually Federates into a new Country called Europe! Member nations would downgrade sovereignty to pool resources and gain efficiencies for mutual benefit - kind of like the 'New World' colonies uniting to form the USA - or Australian colonies federating to become Australia. (1 Jan 1901.)
So there will be no European Army until the EU becomes Europe.
BUT the EU has taken it’s first baby steps at least towards a united military tendering system.
While it’s only
€300 million so far - and does not really impact the
€54 BILLION the EU spends on American weapons kit each year - it’s a start. This could be the first snow drift that turns into an avalanche.
EU boosts defence readiness with first ever financial support for common defence procurement
THIS IS REALLY STRANGE!
To get how thoroughly odd this is - imagine if the USA were part of an All America’s trade block like the EU - and were handing over money to buy military kit - but you did not know if it was going to be built in the USA, Mexico, Canada or Brazil?
IT SNOWBALLS
But the EU are finally onto Trump and America - the great economic con game! THEY want to (collectively) find a mechanism for building their OWN kit.
The reason is twofold. Firstly, ordering weapons from local firms, rather than mostly importing them as the EU has been doing, would increase domestic production, lifting GDP, as well as create jobs, with the salaries spent in the European economy.
Secondly, when cutting-edge military equipment is designed locally, the knowledge gained in the process spreads locally too, rather than staying abroad, generating so-called technological spillovers across the economy.
The EU would have their own equivalent of DARPA which could then share new technologies in their civilian firms!
For example, Japan has expressed interest in improving relations with China, and Prime Minister Modi’s visit to China may reflect shifting geopolitical dynamics. While it is unlikely that Europe will form a security alliance with China, Russia, or India, European countries may explore strengthening security ties within NATO members without direct reliance on the United States.
Exactly - as stated above!
As a conservative, I find it frustrating that many MAGA supporters believe the U.S. is self-sufficient and all-powerful, often overlooking our reliance on Western alliances.
I'm glad to meet you - a conservative actually able to see through the MAGA bull! Are you part of the Lincoln Project? Do you identify as a "never-Trumper" - or do you vote Trump as a necessary evil for now - but hope the party improves?
Even those aware of America's supremacy due to these alliances tend to underestimate Europe's role, seeing Europeans as more focused on benefits like extended vacations or free education than on defense spending. However, since the Ukraine war, this mindset has shifted—Europeans have realized the need for greater self-reliance and are beginning to strengthen their own military-industrial capabilities.
Exactly!
Supporters and critics are debating what President Trump's legacy in history will be. I personally think that one potential legacy of his presidency could be the dissolution of the post-World War II Western alliance, resulting in increased isolation for the United States.
Again - exactly! I'm Social-Liberal in my economics - but it appears we have a lot in common around the geopolitical fallout of all this!
Forgive me if I ever quote stuff to you
again - I forget who I've shared this with in the many threads here. If I do, just pretend I'm sharing it with the list so others reading "over our shoulders" will see it.
“Alas, while Trump is abhorrent, he is not an aberration. His administration is the fulfilment of conservative America’s drift further and further right into populist nationalism and isolationism. It is not coming back.
Conservative America, the one controlling the United States, is a different country. The clichés that have embroidered the chaining of our wagon to the US – “shared values”, “cultural affinities”, “the international rules-based order” – no longer apply. They are lies.
When it comes to liberal/democratic values and attitudes towards international cooperation, multidecade World Values Survey research shows this America is more closely aligned with Putin’s Russia and Erdoğan’s Türkiye than with “the West”. The values held by various European conservative parties – in Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom – are closer to the Australian left than they are to the American right. The Chinese have more liberal values than America’s ruling Republicans.”
Ouch!
