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Fewer international tourists are visiting the U.S. — economic losses could be ‘staggering,’ researchers estimate
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essentialsaltes
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Flights to the US were also reduced in 2022 so it did happened during the Biden presidency.
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essentialsaltes
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Yeah, no.
International flights were 18.8% higher in the first week of 2023 than they were in the first week of 2022. Flights grew pretty consistently through 2022 - there was not a single week in 2022 where flights were lower than the equivalent week in 2021.
Here's weekly international flights to the US for 2020 through to the 2nd of June 2025. The dotted line is a 13-week rolling average, to reduce some of the seasonality impacts. The mid-year downturn seen in 2022 is the typical seasonal downturn seen after the end of July/early August.
For the year to date (first 22 weeks), international flights to the US are up 0.8%. But, growth has slowed through the year. Here's the year-on-year change in weekly international flights:
Keep in mind a number of things:
This represents all inbound/outbound flights - not passengers. Average load factors have dropped steadily for the Canadian, Mexican and trans-Atlantic markets, but are up for Asia Pacific and other Latin American markets. Overall, international load factors are down about 2.2% - which is enough to turn that growth in flights into a reduction in passengers.
This represents US and foreign airlines. US outbound travel is doing fine - it's up about 6-7% this year. However, inbound travel is not doing fine. I could dig into the data to break-out US vs international carriers, but that's half an afternoon's work. As for actual passenger numbers, see my post earlier in the thread.
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- Oct 2, 2020
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The problem of assessing tourism during the Biden admin is travel slumped due to Covid restrictions and fears, and then surged as restrictions were lifted and people felt is was safer to travel.
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- Aug 18, 2012
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It's not. It's being made by travel associations and professional forecasters.
WTTC is not "the left". It's a global travel and tourism representative association
Oxford Economics is not "the left". It's a highly respected economic forecaster.
The US Travel Association is not "the left", it's the main business travel lobbying body in the US (and its new leader is a major Trump fan).
"The left" is just pointing out that the Trump administration's actions are making the US a less attractive place for tourists (and business travellers).
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US and Canadian airlines, for as start.
Schedule reductions are likely planned out to about the end of September (airlines plan their international operations around on two big schedule bands, Summer starting in April and Winter starting in October).
As for why, it's because fewer people want to travel to the US. And, that sentiment is nearly universally based on their negative opinion(s) of the policies of the Trump administration (both domestic and foreign).
Here's the change in forecast growth (seats) for US-Canada flights in the last two months:
As of 28 March
June: +8.4%
July: +10%
August: +11.2%
As of 30 May
June: -1.3%
July: -3%
August: -3.2%
Data is from Airlines for America, based on schedules data from Statistics Canada and Cirrium.
Source: A4A-State-of-US-Commercial-Aviation-40.pdf
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- Aug 18, 2012
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essentialsaltes
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US image takes a blow in many nations — study
Mexico and Sweden were the two countries where the opinion of the US suffered most, with drops of 32 percentage points in positive ratings (from 61% to 29%) in the first and 28 percentage points (47% to 19%) in the second in comparison with 2024.US popularity among adults in Poland and Canada fell by more than 20 percentage points over the year in both countries.
The fall in US popularity in Germany was also marked: from 49% to 33% (16 percentage points).
[On the bright side, possibly more Germans aligned with AfD will come visit.]
In Germany, supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party were far more likely to have positive opinions of the US (63%) than those who do not back the party (25%).
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Update on US tourism for year to May-2025. Air traffic was:
US citizen outbound/return travel of 60.088 million, up 2.010 million passengers
Foreign citizen inbound/return travel of 47.319 million, down 1.007 million passengers (about -2.1%).
Forecasts are now that foreign visits to the US will likely be down somewhere between 3% and 6% for the year. That's not catastrophic, but it's not great either. US airlines rely on about 70-80% originating traffic, so the major part of the impact is going to fall on foreign airlines.
Given foreign arrivals spent about $185-200 billion in the US in 2024, that's an economic loss of somewhere between $5.6 billion and $12 billion.
US citizen outbound/return travel of 60.088 million, up 2.010 million passengers
Foreign citizen inbound/return travel of 47.319 million, down 1.007 million passengers (about -2.1%).
Forecasts are now that foreign visits to the US will likely be down somewhere between 3% and 6% for the year. That's not catastrophic, but it's not great either. US airlines rely on about 70-80% originating traffic, so the major part of the impact is going to fall on foreign airlines.
Given foreign arrivals spent about $185-200 billion in the US in 2024, that's an economic loss of somewhere between $5.6 billion and $12 billion.
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essentialsaltes
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Las Vegas is down on its luck as tourism drops. Why it’s kind of California’s fault [and international travellers]
Visits to Las Vegas were down 11.3% in June 2025 versus a year earlier, according to data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.Traffic on Interstate 15 at the California-Nevada border was down 4.3% over the same period, suggesting fewer visitors from the Golden State heading for Vegas casinos.
The number of air travelers into Las Vegas overall declined 6.3% over the previous June
The convention and visitors authority estimates that 12% of the city’s visitors are international.
Visitors from Canada and Mexico made up more than half of international tourists to Las Vegas in 2024, according to data from the visitors authority.
[OTOH] Clark County collected $1.16 billion in gambling revenue in June 2025, up 3.5% from a year earlier. In the end, the house always wins.
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- Jun 11, 2005
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More bad news for tourism: the administration would like to charge $5,000 to $15,000 security deposits for visas for visitors from certain countries.
The craziness never ends.
The craziness never ends.
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essentialsaltes
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New $250 Visa Integrity Fee Will Cost US $11 Billion, Say Tourism Officials
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the new $250 visa integrity fee will bring in around $27 billion over a decade—or $2.7 billion per year—to U.S. government coffers and reduce the national debt.[CBO did not consider the impact of this barrier to tourism.]
But a U.S. tourism official told Forbes the fee will instead cost the U.S. economy $11 billion over three years, including $9.4 billion in lost visitor spending and $1.3 billion in lost tax revenue—or about $3.6 billion per year, according to an analysis by Tourism Economics.
In addition, the lost revenue will lead to losing 15,000 U.S. travel jobs, according to U.S. tourism industry estimates.
Tourism Economics, a division of Oxford Economics, estimated that the $250-per-person fee is onerous enough to deter 5.4% of international visitors from coming to the U.S., which would translate to a drop of nearly 1 million fewer visits annually.
WHAT DO INTERNATIONAL VISITORS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE VISA INTEGRITY FEE?
The fee is not actually as “refundable” as Congress has billed it to be. As written, the Big Beautiful Bill says the State Department “may reimburse” the fee after the visitor’s visa expires, provided that the visa holder has complied with all conditions of the visa. But most visitor visas are valid for 10 years, Hansen pointed out. “The idea that you’re going to give the government money and then wait around 10 years and remember to ask for it back, even if you followed the rules, is just absolutely crazy,” he said.Another red flag: The $250 fee was inserted into the Big Beautiful Bill without a plan for processing refunds. In its analysis, the CBO wrote that “the Department of State would need several years to implement a process for providing reimbursements.”
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- Jun 11, 2005
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When a group of people who, from all indications, lack even the barest modicum of "integrity" start charging "integrity fees" you know there's bound to be trouble ahead.
Perhaps they should work on cultivating instead of using a cheap fundraising technique that will backfire.
Perhaps they should work on cultivating instead of using a cheap fundraising technique that will backfire.
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The ‘self-inflicted injury’ to US tourism that’s making some Americans angry and disappointed
Joe Koenen has not seen a single Toronto Blue Jays baseball hat all summer.Typically, Canadians will flood the streets of Seattle during the summer, but Koenen, who runs Seattle Free Walking Tours (where people pay what they can), said Canadian tourists are almost gone. Streets look emptier to him.
Canadians calling to cancel their tours “explicitly told me that it was because of the policies and the behavior of our current president,” he said.
As a result of seeing 30% fewer customers this year overall, Koenen has been paying his employees but not himself.
Another Seattle tour operator, John Brink, said “usually you kill it that weekend,” referring to the annual May series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners. But the foot traffic wasn’t there this year. The Blue Jays are Canada’s only Major League Baseball team, so while the team is based in Toronto, many fans from Western Canada passionately sport their Blue Jays gear when they come to Seattle each summer.
After a promising estimate in December by analytics company Tourism Economics that the US would see about 9% growth in overall international visitation in 2025, the company’s updated outlook now estimates an 8.2% decline, led by about one quarter fewer Canadians visiting the US from January to July, compared to the same period in 2024.
The World Travel and Tourism Council, a global tourism advocacy organization, projected in May that the United States will lose $12.5 billion in international visitor spending in 2025, the only country out of 184 economies the council analyzed that will see a decline this year.
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- Aug 3, 2012
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So much winning, we should start pacing ourselves before we get overwhelmed.
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