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Stanford-led study finds COVID vaccines saved far fewer lives than previously reported

Michie

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A Stanford University-led study estimates that COVID-19 vaccinations saved 2.5 million lives from 2020 to 2024, about 17 million fewer than earlier reports suggested, primarily among older adults.

That’s the equivalent of one death averted for every 5,400 vaccine doses administered worldwide during the period, according to the findings published Friday in JAMA Health Forum. Official estimates say 7 million people died from the virus worldwide in those years.


Led by three Stanford researchers, the study noted that 90% of the lives saved were among people 60 or older, and 82% stemmed from vaccinations administered before they tested positive for COVID-19.

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Tuur

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Would have thought such estimates would be straight forward. It was known relatively soon after the pandemic began that some age groups were more adversely impacted than others. So you look at the mortality rate due to the virus in each age group, breaking it down between vaccinated and unvaccinated. The difference between the two would be the decrease in mortality due to the vaccine. Apply that rate to the number of vaccinated in each group and it should be possible to come up with an estimate of lives saved due to the vaccine. Such data was available prior to Omicron, and the significant difference in my demographic is what convinced me to get vaccinated. But if someone applied the same morality rate across all age groups, that could inflate the numbers because some age groups didn't have the same mortality rates.
 
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