FEMA missed major flood risk at Christian Camp Mystic, analysis claims to show

Michie · Thursday at 4:36 PM

The Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA failed to include multiple buildings on its flood risk map for Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, according to an analysis by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists.

At least 27 camp attendees died and five others remain unaccounted for after massive flash flooding swept the private Christian summer camp for girls along the Guadalupe River on July 4.

These findings come from a new analysis by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists, which show that at least eight buildings, including four cabins housing younger campers at Camp Mystic, are located within FEMA’s designated floodway, which is a dangerous area expected to see high-velocity water.

Continued below.

FEMA missed major flood risk at Christian Camp Mystic, analysis claims to show

The Federal Emergency Management Agency failed to include multiple buildings on its flood risk map for Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, according to an analysis by NPR, PBS s FRONTLINE and data scientists

www.christianpost.com

Tuur · Friday at 6:01 AM

Michie said:
The Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA failed to include multiple buildings on its flood risk map for Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, according to an analysis by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists.

At least 27 camp attendees died and five others remain unaccounted for after massive flash flooding swept the private Christian summer camp for girls along the Guadalupe River on July 4.

These findings come from a new analysis by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists, which show that at least eight buildings, including four cabins housing younger campers at Camp Mystic, are located within FEMA’s designated floodway, which is a dangerous area expected to see high-velocity water.

Continued below.

FEMA missed major flood risk at Christian Camp Mystic, analysis claims to show

The Federal Emergency Management Agency failed to include multiple buildings on its flood risk map for Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, according to an analysis by NPR, PBS s FRONTLINE and data scientists

www.christianpost.com

Flood maps are by terrain, not buildings. Have used flood maps before at work. But don't take my word for it. First go here:

Flood Maps

Then look up a flood map. Which map doesn't matter, as long as it's a place subject to flooding. These things are interactive now, but notice something right off: The flood area is shaded and is based on terrain. If the latter isn't obvious, go to the National Map at the US Geological Survey and look at a topo map.

Since the flood areas are shaded, that includes everything in the shaded portions are subject to flooding. You will see different flood zones, or at least the one I pulled up is. At work I have hardcopies of earlier flood maps. I may be mistaken, but I may not have downloaded them from FEMA. This was decades ago.

Hardcopy or not, both illustrate a problem so obvious it's taken for granted: At best, any map is only periodically updated. Structures are build and structures are torn down. What's on the ground changes, but unless there's something major, like a huge construction project, the ground remains pretty much the same. So if a spot on the ground is ten feet from a river bank in, oh, let's say 2000, it's ten feet from the river bank in 2025.

Now, for my quick check moments ago l looked at an area I'm familiar with, and compared the map with the highest water levels I've observed, and it's a good match.

Of course, this isn't what was reported. I have no doubt that there are likely buildings on every flood map that are not noted. The shaded areas are, and that's what you go by. Of course, that doesn't seem what was pointed out. If you read further in the article, it notes that the buildings were not shown in the area for potential flooding, indicating that someone looked at the map and figured that a building in the flood area wasn't shown on the map, and in doing so they acknowledge the maps are by terrain. But they chose to focus on an aspect of the maps that you don't go by: the structures.

Note that NPR and PBS was in on this. If they can't accurately report a story, what's the point in funding them with taxpayer money?

Job 33:6 · Friday at 6:49 AM

Michie said:
The Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA failed to include multiple buildings on its flood risk map for Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, according to an analysis by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists.

At least 27 camp attendees died and five others remain unaccounted for after massive flash flooding swept the private Christian summer camp for girls along the Guadalupe River on July 4.

These findings come from a new analysis by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists, which show that at least eight buildings, including four cabins housing younger campers at Camp Mystic, are located within FEMA’s designated floodway, which is a dangerous area expected to see high-velocity water.

Continued below.

FEMA missed major flood risk at Christian Camp Mystic, analysis claims to show

The Federal Emergency Management Agency failed to include multiple buildings on its flood risk map for Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, according to an analysis by NPR, PBS s FRONTLINE and data scientists

www.christianpost.com

Wait, you mean the real floodplains were 20 feet further inland than what the maps depicted?!?

Tuur · Friday at 11:58 AM

Job 33:6 said:
Wait, you mean the real floodplains were 20 feet further inland than what the maps depicted?!?

Floodplains are a bit of a misnomer since it's in a small valley-like terrain. Contour lines there are at 20 foot intervals. Not the greatest interval distance in the US, but more than the flatland 10 foot interval. (the steeper the terrain, the greater the interval, to prevent having so many contour lines close together as to make a topo map hard to read). Determining elevation between contour marks is chancy. Sometimes, like at the summit of a hill, the USGS notes an elevation.

If the flood maps themselves are a fault, then that's a news story. But from the cited article, it notes the buildings in question were in areas shown as subject to flooding, but the buildings themselves weren't shown on the maps.

Let's see...

Here's a quote from the article:

These findings come from a new analysis by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists, which show that at least eight buildings, including four cabins housing younger campers at Camp Mystic, are located within FEMA’s designated floodway, which is a dangerous area expected to see high-velocity water.

If the buildings were in the floodway, that means the potential for flooding at that location was noted on the maps. If the area inundated was greater than shown in the FEMA maps, then that's the the story, not the buildings. But harping on buildings not shown on the maps if the ground where they were built is shown subject to flooding isn't anything more than spin. It's why I've come to refer to "news" as propaganda.

Note: Am looking at what could be Camp Mystic on both the FEMA maps and the National Map. The problem is this only lets me look at the terrain and flood potential, not the area that was actually flooded.

JimR-OCDS · Friday at 12:27 PM

NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and the other major networks are just looking the place blame
on the Trump administration.

They'll keep running with this blame game until the next headline news event.

Job 33:6 · Friday at 12:31 PM

Tuur said:
Floodplains are a bit of a misnomer since it's in a small valley-like terrain. Contour lines there are at 20 foot intervals. Not the greatest interval distance in the US, but more than the flatland 10 foot interval. (the steeper the terrain, the greater the interval, to prevent having so many contour lines close together as to make a topo map hard to read). Determining elevation between contour marks is chancy. Sometimes, like at the summit of a hill, the USGS notes an elevation.

If the flood maps themselves are a fault, then that's a news story. But from the cited article, it notes the buildings in question were in areas shown as subject to flooding, but the buildings themselves weren't shown on the maps.

Let's see...

Here's a quote from the article:

If the buildings were in the floodway, that means the potential for flooding at that location was noted on the maps. If the area inundated was greater than shown in the FEMA maps, then that's the the story, not the buildings. But harping on buildings not shown on the maps if the ground where they were built is shown subject to flooding isn't anything more than spin. It's why I've come to refer to "news" as propaganda.

Note: Am looking at what could be Camp Mystic on both the FEMA maps and the National Map. The problem is this only lets me look at the terrain and flood potential, not the area that was actually flooded.

I think the real issue here is that, in the past 50 or 100+ years, no one has seen flash flooding like that along that particular river. But simultaneously, it's not clear why a kids camp would even be built literally in the middle of multiple meandering streams to begin with.

There is critique of FEMA. But FEMA isnt divinely all-knowing that they would know how extreme an extreme weather event could be. Nor are they all powerful that they would prevent people from building camps in flood zones (in which everyone agrees that the camp at least partially was).

I think that someone dropped the ball here. Perhaps local ordinances share the blame, but additionally whoever is the owner of that camp that thought building inside a floodplain was a good idea.

Tuur · Friday at 6:26 PM

Job 33:6 said:
I think the real issue here is that, in the past 50 or 100+ years, no one has seen flash flooding like that along that particular river. But simultaneously, it's not clear why a kids camp would even be built literally in the middle of multiple meandering streams to begin with.

There is critique of FEMA. But FEMA isnt divinely all-knowing that they would know how extreme an extreme weather event could be. Nor are they all powerful that they would prevent people from building camps in flood zones (in which everyone agrees that the camp at least partially was).

I think that someone dropped the ball here. Perhaps local ordinances share the blame, but additionally whoever is the owner of that camp that thought building inside a floodplain was a good idea.

True. For the flood I remembered that I used to check the flood map for that area was a few feet short of the highest recorded flood for that location. In that instance there was a reference.

Interestingly, it was also an instance of two 100 year floods occurring in less than a century, but that reflects odds, not actual duration between record floods.

Knowing of residential/vacation areas prone to periodic flooding, a camp located in a flood zone isn't that odd. Looking at the maps. If the assumption is flooding will happen in the off-season, that could explain some things. I can't fault them for doing what I see around here. Case in point is an electric meter on the literally low end of such a settlement that I had to stand on the back of the company truck to access. That's how high the water regularly gets there, and that meter had sediment in it where the river had gone over it. There are places we've had to cut off power for safety due to high water.

Tuur · Friday at 6:31 PM

JimR-OCDS said:
NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and the other major networks are just looking the place blame
on the Trump administration.

They'll keep running with this blame game until the next headline news event.

Ironically, I'm not a huge fan of FEMA due to how it's structured, but fair is fair: I don't see blaming them for something they had no control over. If the maps are off, then yes. But building in a known flood zone isn't FEMA's fault.

FireDragon76 · Friday at 9:07 PM

Job 33:6 said:
I think the real issue here is that, in the past 50 or 100+ years, no one has seen flash flooding like that along that particular river. But simultaneously, it's not clear why a kids camp would even be built literally in the middle of multiple meandering streams to begin with.

There is critique of FEMA. But FEMA isnt divinely all-knowing that they would know how extreme an extreme weather event could be. Nor are they all powerful that they would prevent people from building camps in flood zones (in which everyone agrees that the camp at least partially was).

I think that someone dropped the ball here. Perhaps local ordinances share the blame, but additionally whoever is the owner of that camp that thought building inside a floodplain was a good idea.

The deaths are definitely climate-change related (1 in 1,000 year rainfall that came down relatively suddenly), so the argument I suppose is, they should have known to update their flooding estimates.

The Christian Post at least are talking frankly about something that isn't hype . Many southern states have development patterns that involve a "good old boy" network used to waiving aside environmental concerns. And climate change related risks? It's often a political football nobody wants to touch if it involves raising property insurance rates and development costs, which are already rising along the sunbelt. Nobody wants to say, "the emperor has no clothes", where the developers have huge lobbying interests in state houses (true in Florida as well), and are used to selling swampy muck as "prime real estate".

I live in Orlando, and while it's not quite as low lying as parts of Texas, it's basically all swampland that developers pretend isn't flood prone, when in fact much of it is, especially when you plaster concrete parking lots everywhere.

RileyG · Friday at 9:15 PM

Michie said:
The Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA failed to include multiple buildings on its flood risk map for Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, according to an analysis by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists.

At least 27 camp attendees died and five others remain unaccounted for after massive flash flooding swept the private Christian summer camp for girls along the Guadalupe River on July 4.

These findings come from a new analysis by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists, which show that at least eight buildings, including four cabins housing younger campers at Camp Mystic, are located within FEMA’s designated floodway, which is a dangerous area expected to see high-velocity water.

Continued below.

FEMA missed major flood risk at Christian Camp Mystic, analysis claims to show

The Federal Emergency Management Agency failed to include multiple buildings on its flood risk map for Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, according to an analysis by NPR, PBS s FRONTLINE and data scientists

www.christianpost.com

continued prayers!

Tuur · Saturday at 8:06 AM

FireDragon76 said:
The deaths are definitely climate-change related (1 in 1,000 year rainfall that came down relatively suddenly), so the argument I suppose is, they should have known to update their flooding estimates.

The Christian Post at least are talking frankly about something that isn't hype . Many southern states have development patterns that involve a "good old boy" network used to waiving aside environmental concerns. And climate change related risks? It's often a political football nobody wants to touch if it involves raising property insurance rates and development costs, which are already rising along the sunbelt. Nobody wants to say, "the emperor has no clothes", where the developers have huge lobbying interests in state houses (true in Florida as well), and are used to selling swampy muck as "prime real estate".

I live in Orlando, and while it's not quite as low lying as parts of Texas, it's basically all swampland that developers pretend isn't flood prone, when in fact much of it is, especially when you plaster concrete parking lots everywhere.

First, there's no indication that it's "climate change" related. The problem is the lack of a long baseline here in the US. For the US. 250 years is a long time. For Europe, that's practically yesterday. Consistent weather records in the US are a surprisingly recent thing, only going back to the last half of the 19th Century, if we're lucky. Before that, it's spotty and highly dependent on settlement and if someone bothered to note it.

Here's something I noticed last year. Pecan trees didn't fair well. Had seen that happen in other areas that experienced hurricanes, so started wondering just how old these pecan groves were. Surprise! There wasn't a big push locally until about a century ago, and I sort of remembered a big 19th Century storm that came through. Trying to track that down, found this resource here: Historical Hurricane Tracks I put in "Atlantic Basin" and the results were interesting. Out of curiosity, compared that to the natural range of pecans. Another surprise: the natural range is partially out of the areas where most recorded tropical system tracks have gone through in the SE US. Then realized that these storm tracks have a relatively short baseline. Some famous storms aren't recorded, likely because there's insufficient record. Since the soil and climate in parts of the SE are out of the native range of pecans, can't help but wonder if the reason they didn't exist locally until someone set them out was because of those storms. That would indicate this is something that's been going on for a long time, at least in human terms.

The regular flooding I observed that came close to the all-time record was in the 1990s. The all time record was set around 1920s, the point being it was higher then than now. That doesn't mean flooding could never be higher, only that it's not fitting climate change assumptions.

Second, I had to think a moment about the "good old boy" reference in regards to building. "Good old boy" networking is, well, networking, but as you've notices, it's more "I know you, you know me, so go ahead, it will be alright." But my pause is that in most cases that's not even necessary. Your land? Build what you please. Permitting and inspections were more of a city thing. Outside of it;, it's whatever, or was whatever.

Counties are getting more into permitting over things like septic tanks due to some letting raw sewage run on top of the ground. Not joking here. But such wasn't the norm except in municipalities.

As to what's required to build in Texas, don't have the slightest idea.

FWIW, the elevation that flooded in Texas is over 1,000 feet above sea level. The problem is all relative elevation and the terrain that flooded being like in a little valley.

Job 33:6 · Saturday at 8:23 AM

Tuur said:
First, there's no indication that it's "climate change" related. The problem is the lack of a long baseline here in the US. For the US. 250 years is a long time. For Europe, that's practically yesterday. Consistent weather records in the US are a surprisingly recent thing, only going back to the last half of the 19th Century, if we're lucky. Before that, it's spotty and highly dependent on settlement and if someone bothered to note it.

Here's something I noticed last year. Pecan trees didn't fair well. Had seen that happen in other areas that experienced hurricanes, so started wondering just how old these pecan groves were. Surprise! There wasn't a big push locally until about a century ago, and I sort of remembered a big 19th Century storm that came through. Trying to track that down, found this resource here: Historical Hurricane Tracks I put in "Atlantic Basin" and the results were interesting. Out of curiosity, compared that to the natural range of pecans. Another surprise: the natural range is partially out of the areas where most recorded tropical system tracks have gone through in the SE US. Then realized that these storm tracks have a relatively short baseline. Some famous storms aren't recorded, likely because there's insufficient record. Since the soil and climate in parts of the SE are out of the native range of pecans, can't help but wonder if the reason they didn't exist locally until someone set them out was because of those storms. That would indicate this is something that's been going on for a long time, at least in human terms.

The regular flooding I observed that came close to the all-time record was in the 1990s. The all time record was set around 1920s, the point being it was higher then than now. That doesn't mean flooding could never be higher, only that it's not fitting climate change assumptions.

Second, I had to think a moment about the "good old boy" reference in regards to building. "Good old boy" networking is, well, networking, but as you've notices, it's more "I know you, you know me, so go ahead, it will be alright." But my pause is that in most cases that's not even necessary. Your land? Build what you please. Permitting and inspections were more of a city thing. Outside of it;, it's whatever, or was whatever.

Counties are getting more into permitting over things like septic tanks due to some letting raw sewage run on top of the ground. Not joking here. But such wasn't the norm except in municipalities.

As to what's required to build in Texas, don't have the slightest idea.

FWIW, the elevation that flooded in Texas is over 1,000 feet above sea level. The problem is all relative elevation and the terrain that flooded being like in a little valley.

I was reading that the flooding was actually greater in elevation than the flooding of the early 1900s:

Historic flood data confirms record-breaking rise in Guadalupe River | FROUSA Media

The July 4 floods in Central Texas set new records, with Hunt's river gauge reaching 37.52 feet. HOUSTON — The catastrophic, deadly flooding in Central ... #FROUSA #HillCountryNews #NewBraunfels #ComalCounty #LocalVoices #IndependentMedia

frousa.org

What data were you referencing?

Tuur · Saturday at 10:53 AM

Job 33:6 said:
I was reading that the flooding was actually greater in elevation than the flooding of the early 1900s:

Historic flood data confirms record-breaking rise in Guadalupe River | FROUSA Media

The July 4 floods in Central Texas set new records, with Hunt's river gauge reaching 37.52 feet. HOUSTON — The catastrophic, deadly flooding in Central ... #FROUSA #HillCountryNews #NewBraunfels #ComalCounty #LocalVoices #IndependentMedia

frousa.org

What data were you referencing?

The flood of a local river I'm familiar with, not the Guadalupe River. Used that to gauge the accuracy of the local flood maps.

Job 33:6 · Sunday at 10:43 AM

Anyone read this followup article?

https://www.npr.org/2025/07/13/nx-s1-5465635/camp-mystic-flood-maps-fema-texas-flooding

"The federal government allowed Camp Mystic, the all-girls summer camp along the Guadalupe River, to remove multiple buildings from government flood maps, even though private data suggests the flood threat remained, and was even worse than the government reported, according to documents and data NPR has reviewed."

Tuur · Sunday at 3:18 PM

Job 33:6 said:
Anyone read this followup article?

https://www.npr.org/2025/07/13/nx-s1-5465635/camp-mystic-flood-maps-fema-texas-flooding

"The federal government allowed Camp Mystic, the all-girls summer camp along the Guadalupe River, to remove multiple buildings from government flood maps, even though private data suggests the flood threat remained, and was even worse than the government reported, according to documents and data NPR has reviewed."

Sigh.

Look at the maps.

The maps are by terrain, not buildings.

I'm not asking anyone to believe me.

No one has to take my word for it.

No one has to take NPR's word for it.

I'm just saying look at the maps.

If I'm wrong, the maps will show it.

If NPR is wrong, the maps will show it.

If the flood zones are wrong, the maps will show it.

All it takes is to look at the maps.

FEMA missed major flood risk at Christian Camp Mystic, analysis claims to show

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