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Let's Track the Economy (with objective empirical data?)
- Thread starter Akita Suggagaki
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essentialsaltes
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Retail sales rise 1.4% in March as shoppers stock up on big ticket items ahead of tariffs (Autos up 5.3%)
But analysts expect sales will start falling off as the slew of tariffs increase costs for companies and many retailers are forced to raise prices, hurting shopper demand.
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The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from 74 in December to 50.8 in April.
www.nerdwallet.com
How Is the Economy Doing? - NerdWallet
The state of the economy is generally strong and inflation is slowing down, but still remains elevated. The Federal Reserve is looking at key economic indicators to signal it’s time to cut rates.
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essentialsaltes
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Strange sell-off in the dollar raises the specter of investors losing trust in the US under Trump
Since mid-January, the dollar has fallen 9% against a basket of currencies, a rare and steep decline, to its lowest level in three years.Roughly half of that drop has been just since the start of April.
Gosh, if anyone was vacationing here, which they aren't, they'd get good prices!
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essentialsaltes
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The goods trade gap increased 9.6% to $162.0 billion, the highest on record
Goods imports soared $16.3 billion to an all-time high of $342.7 billion.
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essentialsaltes
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U.S. economy went into reverse in the first quarter, new GDP data shows
The nation's gross domestic product — the total value of products and services — shrank at a 0.3% annual rate, down from growth of 2.4% in the final three months of 2024, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in its initial GDP estimate.--
As for the second half of the White House prophecy, 'the reality of the tax cuts' is not likely to exist before June at the earliest (assuming a budget deal can come together at all). So its effect on Q2 is doubtful.
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essentialsaltes
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ADP: Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations
- Private sector payrolls rose by just 62,000 for the month, the smallest gain since July 2024, down from 147,000 in March and missing the Dow Jones consensus estimate for an increase of 120,000.
ETA:
The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That figure marked solid growth but a slowdown from 228,000 jobs added in the previous month. The unemployment rate stood unchanged at 4.2%, a historically low figure.
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essentialsaltes
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April personal tax revenues came in.
Treasury reported that customs duties in April totaled $16 billion [a record, but an order of magnitude smaller than...]
Receipts last month were driven by a 16% increase in individual non-withheld tax payments, which totaled $460 billion
US budget surplus surges to $258 billion in April, year-to-date deficit tops $1 trillion
The U.S. government posted a $258 billion budget surplus for April, up 23%, or about $49 billion, from a year earlier, reflecting strong tax receipts in the final month of the tax season and record collections of import duties, the Treasury Department said on Monday.Treasury reported that customs duties in April totaled $16 billion [a record, but an order of magnitude smaller than...]
Receipts last month were driven by a 16% increase in individual non-withheld tax payments, which totaled $460 billion
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essentialsaltes
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Overall consumer prices increased 2.3% from a year earlier, down from 2.4% rise the previous month, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a measure of average changes in goods and services costs. [That's Biden's economy for ya.]
That’s the lowest annual increase since February 2021 but still leaves inflation moderately above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
On a monthly basis, costs rose 0.2% after dipping 0.1% in March.
The report provides a snapshot of consumer prices just as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were kicking in, capturing the economic uncertainty they spawned but only partly reflecting the projected jump in costs.
"This may be the low point [for inflation] in 2025," Nationwide economic Ben Ayers wrote in a research note. "As tariff costs increasingly flow into consumer prices, we expect a jump in the CPI this summer." [That's the Trump economy for ya.]
Some forecasters hailed the [China tariff] reprieve but others said the levies will still push inflation sharply higher within months.
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essentialsaltes
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'We're in a holding pattern': Home sales and building slump in the face of uncertainty
Last month was the slowest April for existing home sales in 16 years — a sharp rebuke to hopes that this spring the housing market would recover after two very sleepy years.Lots of Americans would love to buy a home, but they simply can't afford to. Home prices are up nearly 50% since before the pandemic, and mortgage interest rates ticked up to 6.86% last week
[Demand is therefore down, and] Then there's the complicated outlook for supply.
Construction of single-family homes dropped in April, according to figures from the Census Bureau. Every indicator concerning single-family homes — building permits, starts of new homes and completions — was down compared to a year ago.
In addition, "the tariff debate has created a lot of uncertainty," says Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders.
One of the big issues, he says, is Canadian lumber: "Wood framed homes represent about 90% of single-family home building and about a quarter of softwood lumber that we use comes from Canada."
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NxNW
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Hard to track the economy with empirical data, when the Trump Administration is suppressing the data.
Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods later this year, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The numbers run counter to President Donald Trump’s messaging that his economic policies, including tariffs, will reduce U.S. trade imbalances. The politically inconvenient data prompted administration officials to block publication of the written analysis normally attached to the report because they disliked what it said about the deficit.
Policymakers, farm groups and commodities traders rely on the closely watched report, which the Agriculture Department issues quarterly, for its analysis of imports and exports of major farm commodities including cotton and livestock. The highly unusual rollout could raise questions about potential political meddling with government reports that have traditionally been trusted for decades.
Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods later this year, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The numbers run counter to President Donald Trump’s messaging that his economic policies, including tariffs, will reduce U.S. trade imbalances. The politically inconvenient data prompted administration officials to block publication of the written analysis normally attached to the report because they disliked what it said about the deficit.
Policymakers, farm groups and commodities traders rely on the closely watched report, which the Agriculture Department issues quarterly, for its analysis of imports and exports of major farm commodities including cotton and livestock. The highly unusual rollout could raise questions about potential political meddling with government reports that have traditionally been trusted for decades.
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essentialsaltes
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May’s Job Report Comes in Stronger Than Expected With 139K Gain
Forecasts had varied in advance but ranged from around 100,000 to 125,000 jobs expected. In April, employers added a downwardly revised 147,000 jobs.“While today’s report aligns with expectations, reflecting a labor market that is steady but cautious in the face of ongoing uncertainty, there are signs of deceleration with hiring momentum slowing across the board,” said Ger Doyle, regional president for North America at ManpowerGroup. “Our real-time data shows a 7% month-over-month drop in open postings and a 16% decline in new postings. This marks the first full contraction of 2025 across all functions, echoing similar slowdowns seen in June and late 2024.”
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essentialsaltes
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Inflation rate edged higher by 2.4% in May, CPI report shows. Here's what that means.
The WH doc comments on inflation being ' lighter than expected ' but overlooks that it was higher.
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essentialsaltes
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June 147,000
(May was revised up to 144,000)
The labor force participation rate dropped to 62.3%, its lowest level since late 2022, owing to an increase of 329,000 of those not counted in the labor force.
[As a consequence, unemployment fell to 4.1%.]
For reference, average job gains in 2023 were about 250,000, and 185,000 in 2024.
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essentialsaltes
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Why is the dollar off to a weak start this year?
President Trump's trade policies are accelerating a weakening of the U.S. dollar, which is off to its worst start of a year in half a century, according to Harvard University economics professor Kenneth Rogoff."I don't think there's any question that Donald Trump is a catalyst and it may go much further with what he's doing," Rogoff told NPR's Michel Martin.
The dollar fell by 10.8% since the first half of this year, according to the U.S. dollar index, which compares the United States' currency with a basket of other world currencies like the yen and the euro. The drop makes it more expensive for Americans traveling abroad and increases the cost of imports.
[That's like a 10% tax/tariff that benefits nobody.]
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