Let's Track the Economy (with objective empirical data?)

[essentialsaltes]

Economy adds 143,000 jobs in January, reflecting a slower but solid pace of growth this year​

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4 percent.

Economists had worried that the disruptions related to the catastrophic Los Angeles fires and severe winter storms would dampen job gains in January. But the labor market proved strong enough to withstand those disruptions with a solid showing.

Average hourly wage growth accelerated, rising by 4.1 percent over the past 12 months, to $35.87 an hour, outpacing the rate of inflation and boosting workers’ pocketbooks, that will give the Fed more reason to wait to lower borrowing costs.

 

[NxNW]

U.S. inflation increases to 3 percent, groceries and gasoline prices heading higher​

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. inflation accelerated last month as the cost of groceries, gasoline and rents rose, a disappointment for families and businesses struggling with higher costs and likely underscoring the Federal Reserve’s resolve to delay further interest rate cuts.

The consumer price index increased 3% in January from a year ago, Wednesday’s report from the Labor Department showed, up from 2.9% the previous month. It has increased from a 3 1/2 year low of 2.4% in September.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Jobless claims spike, in worrisome sign for the US labor market​

There were an estimated 242,000 jobless claims filed last week, according to seasonally adjusted data released Thursday by the Department of Labor. That’s an increase of 22,000 from the prior week’s tally and a figure that landed well above economists’ expectations for 220,000 claims.

it’s not yet known to what extent the widespread layoffs occurring within the US government are having an effect.

Federal worker-specific unemployment data is lagged by a week, and did not indicate a meaningful jump from the week before.

 

[essentialsaltes]

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.

Latest estimate [for Q1 2025]: -1.5 percent — February 28, 2025

 

[essentialsaltes]

• U.S. employers announced 172,017 layoffs for February, up 245% from January and the highest monthly count since July 2020, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported.
• More than one-third of the total came from billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk’s efforts to reduce the federal headcount. Challenger put the total of announced federal job cuts at 62,242.
• [However, that implies that private employer layoffs still more than doubled. the 245% number implies January's total layoffs was about 50,000 (including both public and private jobs).]

 

[essentialsaltes]

Economy adds 151,000 jobs in February, a solid gain despite federal worker layoffs​

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1 percent but remains just above long-time lows


Atlanta Fed Q1 2025 GDP growth quasi-estimate:

Latest estimate: -2.4 percent — March 06, 2025

DOGE ushering in America's Golden Age:

 

[NxNW]

Trump Says Recession Unfortunate But Necessary Step To Get To Depression​

WASHINGTON—Warning that Americans should brace themselves for an economic “period of transition,” President Donald Trump told reporters Monday that a recession would be an unfortunate but necessary step on the way to all-out depression. “Look, what we’re doing is very big and will cause some pain, but that pain is necessary to cause total economic collapse,” Trump said during a press conference, adding that while his decision to implement billions of dollars in tariffs on foreign imports and fire 20,000 federal workers could cause a temporary disturbance, Americans would ultimately emerge much, much worse for it.

 

[wing2000]

“Look, what we’re doing is very big and will cause some pain, but that pain is necessary to cause total economic collapse,”

Winning! Here's to more "disturbances"!

 

[essentialsaltes]

12/14/24

Dow

43,828

3/10/25 Dow - 41,912

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

3/10/25 Dow - 41,912

Fasten our seatbelts! Of course Trump and Musk wont have to forgo their luxuries. They will not feel the pain.

But we are beginning to see it all around us.

 

[Merrill]

The US inflation rate has been increasing since September of last year.

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov

Tariffs, depending how they are implemented, will likely cause more inflation.

Oil prices are down quite a bit though, and a weaker labor market will counter-act some of the inflation.

Everything depends on what happens in the next few months.

The BULL case is

1. A peace treaty / resolution to the war in Ukraine
2. Easing inflation
3. A Fed rate cut

The BEAR case is

1. Continuation of the war (no deal reached)
2. A spike in inflation
3. A Fed rate HIKE

If the bear case materializes, we will see 1970s-style economic misery.

And note: I have been calling for that for 2 years now: reckless government spending, skyrocketing money supply, low interest rates, a weak underlying economy, problems in the energy sector, and demographic issues, all make for a toxic brew.

Impossible to say which way this goes.

 

[wing2000]

The US inflation rate has been increasing since September of last year.

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov

Tariffs, depending how they are implemented, will likely cause more inflation.

Oil prices are down quite a bit though, and a weaker labor market will counter-act some of the inflation.

Everything depends on what happens in the next few months.

The BULL case is

1. A peace treaty / resolution to the war in Ukraine
2. Easing inflation
3. A Fed rate cut

The BEAR case is

1. Continuation of the war (no deal reached)
2. A spike in inflation
3. A Fed rate HIKE

If the bear case materializes, we will see 1970s-style economic misery.

And note: I have been calling for that for 2 years now: reckless government spending, skyrocketing money supply, low interest rates, a weak underlying economy, problems in the energy sector, and demographic issues, all make for a toxic brew.

Impossible to say which way this goes.

4. Tarriffs - which will impact inflation and the Fed's interest decisions
Bull case: Agreement reached with Canada and Mexico with no further increase on Chinese imports -- at 20% currently?
Bear case: Trump continues to threaten our largest trading partners with tarriffs...every 30 days

 

[essentialsaltes]

“There are a lot of reasons to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward. But for sure, this quarter, there are some blips in the data,” White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Monday. “What’s going to happen is the first quarter is going to squeak into the positive category, and then the second quarter is going to take off as everybody sees the reality of the tax cuts.”

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase last week downgraded their forecasts for first-quarter economic growth, citing tariffs and broader uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies.

BNP Paribas said it anticipates “lasting damage to global economic activity” even if the recently imposed tariffs are removed, with substantially greater damage to be priced into the market the longer tariffs stay in effect.

Investors will be closely watching the inflation report coming Wednesday, analysts said.

 

[Merrill]

4. Tarriffs - which will impact inflation and the Fed's interest decisions
Bull case: Agreement reached with Canada and Mexico with no further increase on Chinese imports -- at 20% currently?
Bear case: Trump continues to threaten our largest trading partners with tarriffs...every 30 days

The US is running close to a 1 trillion dollar trade deficit

U.S. Trade Balance | Historical Chart & Data

External balance on goods and services (formerly resource balance) equals exports of goods and services minus imports of goods and services (previously nonfactor services). Data are in current U.S. dollars.

www.macrotrends.net

and has undergone a degree of deindustrialization. Millions of jobs have been lost because of trade issues

so if you don't want to use tariffs, I am wondering what your plan is exactly? Just let the trade deficit go to 2-3 trillion and have places like China make all our medicine import all our metals and rare-earths, furniture, whatever?

this is a difficult issue, but Democrats don't have any answers at all (and some members of the GOP don't either --it is just "meh free trade")

on the NR podcast, the question was asked "if you could go back in time and were asked the question 'do you want the price of TV sets to go down 500% in the next 20 years, but have all the manufacturing plants in your town close, and see your kids move away because the town has no economy left? Would you agree to that"?

 

[wing2000]

The US is running close to a 1 trillion dollar trade deficit

U.S. Trade Balance | Historical Chart & Data

External balance on goods and services (formerly resource balance) equals exports of goods and services minus imports of goods and services (previously nonfactor services). Data are in current U.S. dollars.

www.macrotrends.net

and has undergone a degree of deindustrialization. Millions of jobs have been lost because of trade issues

Yes, that's how Capitalism works. I

so if you don't want to use tariffs, I am wondering what your plan is exactly? Just let the trade deficit go to 2-3 trillion and have places like China make all our medicine import all our metals and rare-earths, furniture, whatever?

I support free trade and believe we should continue to support the North American economy as we have done for a couple of decades. Countries who unfairly trade should have targeted tariffs (China - steel, solar, etc).

this is a difficult issue, but Democrats don't have any answers at all (and some members of the GOP don't either --it is just "meh free trade")

on the NR podcast, the question was asked "if you could go back in time and were asked the question 'do you want the price of TV sets to go down 500% in the next 20 years, but have all the manufacturing plants in your town close, and see your kids move away because the town has no economy left? Would you agree to that"?

I think we know the answer to that. We are a consumer driven society that values "things" over community and relationships. A consumer will chose to by the advanced 82" TV made in South Korea for less money than a similar TV costing 500% per more, made in the USA with union labor.

 

[NxNW]

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

View attachment 362172

Finally a word of truth from him.

 

[Merrill]

Yes, that's how Capitalism works. I



I support free trade and believe we should continue to support the North American economy as we have done for a couple of decades. Countries who unfairly trade should have targeted tariffs (China - steel, solar, etc).



I think we know the answer to that. We are a consumer driven society that values "things" over community and relationships. A consumer will chose to by the advanced 82" TV made in South Korea for less money than a similar TV costing 500% per more, made in the USA with union labor.

OK, so targeted tariffs are acceptable?

I would agree with that

but Democrats are suddenly 100% against all tariffs of any kind, and a lot of neocon Republicans are also against them

so I am wondering what methods we will use to lower the trade deficit and restore supply lines, critical products, and promote manufacturing

or are we just going o become a 100% service economy?

 

[expos4ever]

With the democratic left it's those people in other countries suffering hardship need our care and compassion.

This is almost certainly false (i.e., that are those on the left do not care about people here). I can pretty much guarantee you will not be able to provide any credible data to support this rather astonishing claim.

 

[expos4ever]

but Democrats are suddenly 100% against all tariffs of any kind.

Can you please support this claim with credible evidence?