Families are moving out of ‘blue’ states and heading for red and purple, researchers find

A new analysis by researchers at the Institute for Family Studies examines the states that are attracting and losing families, and finds that families are leaving many of the most progressive U.S. states and heading for states that are considered more conservative or politically diverse.

Reliably blue states — i.e., states that voted for Democratic presidential candidates in both 2016 and 2020 — lost 213,000 families with children in 2021 and 2022, the researchers said.

Meanwhile, states that voted Republican in both elections gained 181,000 families. “Purple” states that flipped between the two parties in the last presidential elections, like Arizona and Georgia, also posted gains, attracting 38,000 families.

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• Parents are not generally moving towards states with the preferred family policies of progressives. They are moving out of these states.
• Today, the family-friendly policies and cultural distinctives that matter most for parents are more likely to be found in red (and purple) states, not in blue states.
• Blue states that voted for Democratic presidential candidates in both 2016 and 2020 lost 213,000 families in 2021 and 2022 (a 0.7% net decline), while red states that voted for President Trump in both elections gained 181,000 families (a 0.6% net gain).

You would think that Minnesota is a mecca for families, judging by the adulatory press coverage that Democratic Gov. Tim Walz’s family policy record in the state has received from liberal professors and pundits. Celebrating the vice presidential nominee’s moves to expand the child tax credit for poor families, advance paid family leave, and provide universal school lunch in the state, Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell wrote these family policies provide “further evidence that one major party cares about children and families; and the other does not.” She added: “Democrats should adopt a new agenda: Make America Minnesota Already” (MAMA). And fair’s fair: Gov. Walz did implement some policies that we think helped Minnesota families.

But Rampell might be surprised to learn that Minnesota isn’t a magnet for families with children: quite the opposite, in fact. Although a number of Minnesota’s progressive family policies are popular in polls of parents, when it comes to family policy, broadly understood, the revealed preferences of parents often diverge from their stated preferences for parts of the “MAMA”-state agenda. More families with children moved out of Minnesota in 2021 and 2022 than moved into the state, according to our analysis of the American Community Survey. In fact, Minnesota ranked in the worst third for family migration, as one of 18 states in the nation that saw more families leave than move into the state.

Minnesota is no outlier. Parents are not generally moving towards states with the preferred family policies of progressives. They are moving out of these states, including Democratic states, like New York, California, Massachusetts, and Oregon, all well known for their liberal family policies. Blue states that voted for Democratic presidential candidates in both 2016 and 2020 lost 213,000 families with children in 2021 and 2022 (a 0.7% net decline), while red states that voted for President Trump in both elections gained 181,000 families (a 0.6% net gain). Meanwhile, purple states that flipped between the two parties in the last presidential elections gained 38,000 families (a 0.4% gain).1

Top 15 States that Have Lost the Most Families (Net Emigration Rate, 2021-2022)

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