Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save Civilization

SamanthaAnastasia · Aug 1, 2023

Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save Civilization

Thoughts?

Dewi Sant · Aug 1, 2023

There is a morbid delight in thinking we live in the last generation of civilisation, though this is no new idea.
Thomas Malthus expressed the same fears when he wrote 'An Essay on the Principle of Population' in 1798.

His theory of societal and economic collapse has been proven evidently false.
Humans are remarkably adaptive.
When I was at school, we were often told in physics and geography class about how soon the oil will run out.
'when the oil runs out' has become something of a comical quip among my contemporaries. As if to say, 'oh that blessed day when the world goes to hell and we can live our fantasy commune life in the countryside'.
Corporate greed would never allow this, and so, maybe it is capitalism which will save the planet in an ironic twist of events.

It is easier to extract profit from the living than the dead.

As for renewable energy and the issue of the means of production of such technology; I believe we are surely on the cusp of renewables manufacturing renewables. Whether we are at a point where entire cities can be powered by renewables, well that's going to take a little while longer. It's a shame nuclear fission got such a bad name following Fukoshima and Chernobyl; both extremely unusual cases. Fusion is still in its infancy, and photovoltaic and wind are subject to weather.

I am extremely pessimistic that people will ever be 'sustainable' from an ecological perspective. We just like our stuff too much.
Think of the manufacture of the building materials of the structure surrounding you. The supply lines, logistics, embodied energy costs.
I am typing this out on a computer manufactured in China (mainly Shenzhen), designed by a company based in California. Parts for which have been consolidated from all over the world, and often by dubious ethical means.

To tie this back to theology.
Perhaps the monastics by their living conditions set apart from the global economy are the most free among us. They are not affected when there is panic buying of eggs, or whether some gas pipeline is damaged under suspicious circumstances resulting in the oil companies exploiting the opportunity for record profits.

Nay, the bees make the wax, and the vegetables grow in the fields.

Dewi Sant · Aug 1, 2023

In short I am extremely optimistic about our future as a species, and the planet.
I am also careful not to support apocalyptic secularist movements.

SamanthaAnastasia · Aug 1, 2023

Dewi Sant said:
In short I am extremely optimistic about our future as a species, and the planet.
I am also careful not to support apocalyptic secularist movements.

I suppose the issue is when secularist thinking overlaps with biblical prophecy? For example the Euphrates is drying up and scientists point to climate change etc but it’s also in the book of revelation. 1/3 of land is destroyed by fire and 1/3 of ocean life is destroyed(not saying that we are there yet) but I just find it…interesting.

Dewi Sant · Aug 1, 2023

G.K. Chesterton — 'And though St. John saw many strange monsters in his vision, he saw no creature so wild as one of his own commentators.'

I used to think what a marvelous coincidence it is that Chernobyl translates as Wormwood, and how the Ukranian SSR's nuclear accident could fit an interpretation of St John's Apocalypse.

As part of my theology degree I did a course in the exegesis and eisegesis of the text, and to sum up the course, it is a deeply contextual book relating to the political situation at the time of its composition; though the imagery of the eschaton is wholly useful in our understanding as a church of the kingdom of heaven.
The contraction of the Aral Sea is due to irrigation projects, and the Euphrates by the construction of dams along its length. And then there's the Three Gorges Dam in China which has such an effect on the planet that it affects the speed of the earth's rotation (if only by 0.06 microseconds per day).

Climate change is a real phenomenon, though it is hugely politicised. Mechanical Air Conditioning combined with road surfaces increases temperatures in towns significantly as heat is extracted from buildings and the machinery of the appartus into the street, and asphalt works as a heat sink and radiator. Passive technologies such as natural ventilation, ground cooling culverts and such are seldom implemented as the design considerations add cost and mechanical AC is more predictable and passes the cost onto the consumer.

A lot of peoples' careers depend on climate change to stay relevent and keep drawing their pay cheque. Films are made, books sold, radio programmes broadcast. It all keeps us pre-occupied with an idea which gives a purpose to life without a god. There is a righteousness ethic, a call for judgement upon one's neighbour who eats meat or travels by private motorcar etc. Our modern day secular ascetics boast of their virtue on YouTube and TikTok, and if they're lucky, they get platformed on television networks, or given opinion columns in tabloids.

Something I really like about Orthodoxy is how through fasting and general simple living, we have quietly been practicing this without looking for approval from our peers.

Dewi Sant · Aug 1, 2023

perhaps I should come clean and say that I am a post-graduate in architectural design and a *huge* part of my training is in environmental sustainability.

Thing is, the part which is often overlooked is the embodied energy. Where the materials are sourced, how they are manufactured, their lifespan, and how they are disposed of following use.
True, photovoltaics (solar panels) may generate some DC electricity, but the resource extraction and manufacture of them, as well as the transportation to site, combined with the 20 year expected life span (assuming they are actually maintained), soon makes them less effective than the retailers would have us imagine.

Even so, there is the public impression of them as being 'green'. A very visual virtue signal. So be sure to cover every conceivable roof side with them and you will win sustainability points. There's no actual need to connect them to the grid, or indeed for them to even be PV panels, they could just be sheets of glass with an etching so as to give the effect of a manufactured panel.
I think of the many schools in my area which have wind turbines which never turn, and were only operational to gain their green credential rating at time of opening

There's the finances in it. Grants and other types of funding are awarded to projects which meet sustainability targets, a noble idea, but the reality is, it only needs to work when assessed.

There are three main types of sustainability:
Social Sustainability (usually overlooked)
Environmental Sustainability (this is the very visual and thus attractive one)
Economic Sustainability

rusmeister · Aug 1, 2023

Civilizations fall. Life goes on. Look at Boethius. His Western Roman civilization collapsed and he managed to write about it before they had him killed in prison.
Our civilization can and will certainly come to an end and that in itself will not be the end of all things, though it will certainly seem like it to us. There is no such thing as an eternal civilization in the fallen world. Ours became too tolerant of evil and rejection of the Christian worldview too quickly in the name of “freedom”, which, without limits, turned out to be anarchy.

But the article is Malthusian panic. I wouldn’t take it too seriously, and this “overshoot” seems like the most improbable of the many things that can bring us down.

ArmyMatt · Aug 1, 2023

I tend to just watch and pray. humans are very adaptable (one prominent biologist calls us the biological Swiss Army knife), and I have no doubt we’ll make it until Christ returns. however, I do think that might come with some pain of our own making).

Light of the East · Aug 8, 2023

Dewi Sant said:
In short I am extremely optimistic about our future as a species, and the planet.
I am also careful not to support apocalyptic secularist movements.

There are more "visionaries," "seers," and "prophets" predicting the end of all things, the Rapture, the Second Coming, the Three Days of Darkness, yada, yada, yada, than there are fleas on a mangy old dog. If their warped theology wasn't so sad to read it would be quite humorous.

ValeriyK2022 · Sep 9, 2023

Dewi Sant said:
There is a morbid delight in thinking we live in the last generation of civilisation, though this is no new idea.
Thomas Malthus expressed the same fears when he wrote 'An Essay on the Principle of Population' in 1798.

His theory of societal and economic collapse has been proven evidently false.
Humans are remarkably adaptive.
When I was at school, we were often told in physics and geography class about how soon the oil will run out.
'when the oil runs out' has become something of a comical quip among my contemporaries. As if to say, 'oh that blessed day when the world goes to hell and we can live our fantasy commune life in the countryside'.
Corporate greed would never allow this, and so, maybe it is capitalism which will save the planet in an ironic twist of events.

It is easier to extract profit from the living than the dead.

As for renewable energy and the issue of the means of production of such technology; I believe we are surely on the cusp of renewables manufacturing renewables. Whether we are at a point where entire cities can be powered by renewables, well that's going to take a little while longer. It's a shame nuclear fission got such a bad name following Fukoshima and Chernobyl; both extremely unusual cases. Fusion is still in its infancy, and photovoltaic and wind are subject to weather.

I am extremely pessimistic that people will ever be 'sustainable' from an ecological perspective. We just like our stuff too much.
Think of the manufacture of the building materials of the structure surrounding you. The supply lines, logistics, embodied energy costs.
I am typing this out on a computer manufactured in China (mainly Shenzhen), designed by a company based in California. Parts for which have been consolidated from all over the world, and often by dubious ethical means.

To tie this back to theology.
Perhaps the monastics by their living conditions set apart from the global economy are the most free among us. They are not affected when there is panic buying of eggs, or whether some gas pipeline is damaged under suspicious circumstances resulting in the oil companies exploiting the opportunity for record profits.

Nay, the bees make the wax, and the vegetables grow in the fields.

I also think that each of us should prepare more for the individual end of the world, which no one can escape, and not for the end of all planetary life.

ValeriyK2022 · Sep 9, 2023

Recently I listened to a priest who had been studying the Revelation of John the Theologian (Apocalypse) for many years. He believes that the end of the world cannot happen until the Gospel is preached to all people on the planet. There is no preaching in China now. China needs hundreds more years in his opinion.

ValeriyK2022 · Sep 9, 2023

Dewi Sant said:
G.K. Chesterton — 'And though St. John saw many strange monsters in his vision, he saw no creature so wild as one of his own commentators.'

I used to think what a marvelous coincidence it is that Chernobyl translates as Wormwood, and how the Ukranian SSR's nuclear accident could fit an interpretation of St John's Apocalypse.

As part of my theology degree I did a course in the exegesis and eisegesis of the text, and to sum up the course, it is a deeply contextual book relating to the political situation at the time of its composition; though the imagery of the eschaton is wholly useful in our understanding as a church of the kingdom of heaven.
The contraction of the Aral Sea is due to irrigation projects, and the Euphrates by the construction of dams along its length. And then there's the Three Gorges Dam in China which has such an effect on the planet that it affects the speed of the earth's rotation (if only by 0.06 microseconds per day).

Climate change is a real phenomenon, though it is hugely politicised. Mechanical Air Conditioning combined with road surfaces increases temperatures in towns significantly as heat is extracted from buildings and the machinery of the appartus into the street, and asphalt works as a heat sink and radiator. Passive technologies such as natural ventilation, ground cooling culverts and such are seldom implemented as the design considerations add cost and mechanical AC is more predictable and passes the cost onto the consumer.

A lot of peoples' careers depend on climate change to stay relevent and keep drawing their pay cheque. Films are made, books sold, radio programmes broadcast. It all keeps us pre-occupied with an idea which gives a purpose to life without a god. There is a righteousness ethic, a call for judgement upon one's neighbour who eats meat or travels by private motorcar etc. Our modern day secular ascetics boast of their virtue on YouTube and TikTok, and if they're lucky, they get platformed on television networks, or given opinion columns in tabloids.

Something I really like about Orthodoxy is how through fasting and general simple living, we have quietly been practicing this without looking for approval from our peers.

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant was located in the USSR, and not in the Ukrainian SSR. It was only geographically located in the Kyiv region, but was under federal subordination and was directly subordinate to Moscow. Moscow built it, Moscow operated it, Moscow directed the experiment that led to the accident and accelerated the collapse of the USSR.

SamanthaAnastasia · Sep 17, 2023

ValeriyK2022 said:
Recently I listened to a priest who had been studying the Revelation of John the Theologian (Apocalypse) for many years. He believes that the end of the world cannot happen until the Gospel is preached to all people on the planet. There is no preaching in China now. China needs hundreds more years in his opinion.

Do you mean Orthodox Gospel or just the Gospel in general? If he meant specifically Orthodox Gospel then Latin/South America needs much more (Catholic holdout that doesn’t really know Orthodoxy exists and almost zero churches). Also, North Korea has zero gospel period even Protestant. Oh and a handful of uncontacted Tribes. Very interesting.

ValeriyK2022 · Sep 18, 2023

SamanthaAnastasia said:
Do you mean Orthodox Gospel or just the Gospel in general? If he meant specifically Orthodox Gospel then Latin/South America needs much more (Catholic holdout that doesn’t really know Orthodoxy exists and almost zero churches). Also, North Korea has zero gospel period even Protestant. Oh and a handful of uncontacted Tribes. Very interesting.

The Gospel cannot be Orthodox or Catholic or Protestant. The apostles wrote only one Gospel . Therefore, Gospel can be true, which was written by the apostles, or falsified.

The book "Revelation of John the Theologian" (in Latin Apocalypse, not the Gospel, but part of the New Testament) was also written by John the Theologian in a single version. I don’t know about other confessions, but the Orthodox Church contains exactly the version that was written by the Apostle John the Theologian himself.

ValeriyK2022 · Sep 18, 2023

Regarding China, North Korea and Muslim countries, what is happening there means that our generation will not live to see the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. Therefore, each of us must prepare for an individual apocalypse (after all, no one can avoid death).

ArseniusTheSilent · Sep 18, 2023

We don't know when Ch

ValeriyK2022 said:
Regarding China, North Korea and Muslim countries, what is happening there means that our generation will not live to see the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. Therefore, each of us must prepare for an individual apocalypse (after all, no one can avoid death).

You don't know that. Neither do I. This is precisely why the Gospels are littered with Christ telling us to be faithful and diligent as we know not when he will come.

ValeriyK2022 · Sep 18, 2023

ArseniusTheSilent said:
We don't know when Ch

You don't know that. Neither do I. This is precisely why the Gospels are littered with Christ telling us to be faithful and diligent as we know not when he will come.

The priest I wrote about above says that everything will be revealed to each of us (in Latin, the apocalypse will come) after our death. And this will happen for the entire planet when the Gospel is preached throughout the entire planet.

In any case, we must prepare for a personal apocalypse.

Dogheaded · Sep 20, 2023

The apocalypse comes like woman in labor. We feel now a contraction, but do not know if the time for birth is now. However, this contraction is a type of that birth.

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