Anti-Trump Republicans threaten third party

If successful, the forming of such a party would just ensure the democrats a longtime hegemony. Perhaps that's considered a lesser evil than Trumpism by the RINOs?

SimplyMe said:

Apparently the Anti-Trump part of the Republican Party will sign a letter on Thursday, calling on the Republican Party to break with Trump. If the Party refuses, these Republicans are saying they will split off and form their own new party.

I can see two things happening. In some conservative states, it is possible the Anti-Trump party could win Senate or House seats, removing some of the power from the Trump Republicans. Additionally, Democrats could win seats where the "Republican" vote is split between the Trump and Anti-Trump parties. It might be possible where the Democrats could win a 60 seat majority in the Senate; or even just between the Democrats and Anti-Trump Party, who might be willing to negotiate and work with Democrats to increase their power, there could be enough to overcome filibusters.

I'm not going to make any predictions at this time; we've seen these types of threats in the last few years, only to have the idea die. At the same time, it should add more political theater to our summer.

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From your article:
The letter signatories, who include former ambassadors, governors, congressional members and Cabinet secretaries, want the Republican Party to return to "principled" leadership and reject division and conspiracy theories, or face a new party dedicated to fighting for Republicans such as Cheney and against fearmongering and lies.
They may face an uphill battle in getting any current Republican officeholders to sign on - including Cheney herself, who in February rejected the idea of a third party, saying it would empower Democrats.
A spokesman for Trump, Jason Miller, said: “These losers left the Republican Party when they voted for Joe Biden."

The 'Establishment' Republicans seem to be getting tired of being associated with the fringy-er elements of the party.

This is not a new issue. There were similar, if less dramatic and strident, noises about the Tea Party populists that were elected through the 2010/2012 election cycle.

The key difference is that one of the fringe elements managed to get themselves elected as President. And then spent much of his presidency recycling or amplifying fringe views. And supporting other fringe candidates.

The sober, sombre wing of the party has found itself mostly frozen out as a result. Certainly their hopes of a return to normal service following the 2020 election defeat don't seem to have been realised. A large majority of the Republican party base seem to be embracing a hetrodox mixture of identism, hypernationalism, isolationism and conspiracy theories. Or maybe they always had, and are now just doing so openly.

Despite this, I don't think a break away would succeed. Most of the establishment Republicans are too politically astute. Given they've probably got the support of about 1 in 6 in the party - and about 1 in 12 nationally - they'll realise that all they're going to do is consign themselves to gradual political oblivion.

Two party systems are wonderful, aren't they?

Nothing's going to happen until after the 2022 elections -- that's when the GOP will determine whether Donald is an asset...

If Donald-backed congressmen win their elections, then this talk of a third party will die down. If they lose, the party as a whole will dump him like a hot coal.

Make no mistake: there are no principles at play here except for the lust for power. As long as the GOP thinks Donald can still deliver, they will embrace him.

TLK Valentine said:

Nothing's going to happen until after the 2022 elections -- that's when the GOP will determine whether Donald is an asset...

If Donald-backed congressmen win their elections, then this talk of a third party will die down. If they lose, the party as a whole will dump him like a hot coal.

Make no mistake: there are no principles at play here except for the lust for power. As long as the GOP thinks Donald can still deliver, they will embrace him.

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I agree. But I have some quibbles.

I don't think there are no principles here except for desire for power. I think there's also a large degree of distaste (and snobbishness) going on. Plus some pride and some unwarranted nostalgia to boot.

For establishment Republicans/never Trumpers, I imagine their situation is somewhat similar to the Drysdales from the Beverly Hillbillies.

All of a sudden these undesirables have shown up in your neighbourhood. You've heard of their like before, maybe even interacted with a few of them on occasion, but you've not had to live with them in such close proximity.

One part of you wants to keep their votes (and their money), and so will reluctantly play along while dreaming up new ways to fleece them. The other part wants them gone from the neighborhood, and has basically given an ultimatum that its us or them.

One way or the other the republicans will devolve into infighting.

...we'll see what happens.

As it stands today, there is no conservative party in the US.

VirOptimus said:

One way or the other the republicans will devolve into infighting.

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..meaning the only thing that'll hold them together is a common enemy...

That'll be Biden... the Democrats... the"left"... and more or less, us.

SimplyMe said:

I'm not going to make any predictions at this time; we've seen these types of threats in the last few years, only to have the idea die. At the same time, it should add more political theater to our summer.

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You're right about this. The predictions have shifted several times in just the past several months. Trump seemed set to launch a third party, but he shelved that idea, mainly because of two considerations: 1) it is enormously difficult to start a real, functioning, third party in this country, and 2) The Trump Republicans are the majority in the Party right now, not the NeverTrumpers.

It would therefore be foolish for the first group to bail under these circumstances and there is no conservative third party already in existence that offers them a vehicle for success.

The NeverTrumpers are probably the most frustrated and likely to try something new, but they have virtually no chance of succeeding at it, as their quixotic efforts to derail Trump during the past four years demonstrated. This doesn't mean that some of them won't try, however.

I agree with most of what you said, but:

Albion said:

The NeverTrumpers are probably the most frustrated and likely to try something new, but they have virtually no chance of succeeding at it, as their quixotic efforts to derail Trump during the past four years demonstrated. This doesn't mean that some of them won't try, however.

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The fact that they spent four years instead of eight would indicate some measure of success... Donald is the first president since 1992 to fail to win re-election.

Now, to a gen-Xer like myself, 1992 feels like last Tuesday, but in reality, 28 years is a pretty long time.

TLK Valentine said:

I agree with most of what you said, but:

The fact that they spent four years instead of eight would indicate some measure of success... Donald is the first president since 1992 to fail to win re-election.

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I wouldn't say so. The idea that this tiny handful of now-disgraced writers or whatever might have had anything close to a noticeable impact upon either the Party or the outcome of the 2020 election is mistaken.

There are probably a bunch of reasons why the President lost re-election, but the "Lincoln Project," National Review magazine, or the independent candidate they found to run against him, are not among them.

The Lincoln Project implodes amid infighting and scandal - POLITICO

Albion said:

-snip-
There are probably a bunch of reasons why the President lost re-election, but the "Lincoln Project," National Review magazine, the independent candidate they put up against him, or anything else in that arena are not among them.

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I agree, but I do think his big lie will affect the future of the GoP in a negative way.

Albion said:

I wouldn't say so. The idea that this tiny handful of now-disgraced writers or whatever might have had anything close to a noticeable impact upon either the Party or the outcome of the 2020 election is mistaken.

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It remains to be seen how "tiny" they are -- there is talk of a third party, after all.

It's not going to happen, of course -- but it's become enough of a legitimate concern to justify this thread... and your involvement in it.

There are probably a bunch of reasons why the President lost re-election, but the "Lincoln Project," National Review magazine, or the independent candidate they found to run against him, are not among them.

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I certainly agree that there were several factors contributing to Donald's resounding defeat: some external; many internal. Certainly his behavior after the election didn't win him any "Miss Congeniality" awards.

We're going to have to keep looking forward to see what the future holds. Clearly a large percentage of The Party thinks their future depends on Donald, and he's going to be using his influence to endorse like-minded candidates in the 2022 midterms, and, barring discouragement, disqualification, or death, will almost certainly plan a 2024 comeback for himself.

wing2000 said:

...we'll see what happens.

As it stands today, there is no conservative party in the US.

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That was obvious as soon as Texas tried to sue other states for following their own elections laws, and no one in the GOP objected.

SimplyMe said:

But, again, since the odds are that it won't happen, it will likely remain speculation.

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Indeed -- right now both the pro- and anti-Donald Republicans are going to wait and see how the 2022 midterms go.

That -- how much power Donald's devoted seize -- will determine the future of the GOP.