China Stops Importing US Soy in First for Trade War

Brazil thanks Donald Trump.

Nithavela said:

China Stops Importing US Soy in First for Trade War

Click to expand...

Reduced agricultural exports -> unsustainable govt subsidies for farmers -> next stop, crisis. Maybe the D will be out of power by then and can blame whoever is in power. Or, he’ll still be in power but will shift the blame anyway.

Actually, they have started importing soybeans this month while the governments work out their tariff wars. How long do you really believe that Brazil can meet China's demands? especially since they are in mid-growing season

JackRT said:

Brazil thanks Donald Trump.

Click to expand...

Making [South] America Great Again.

blackribbon said:

How long do you really believe that Brazil can meet China's demands? especially since they are in mid-growing season

Click to expand...

We'll probably find out. Soybeans, of course, can be stockpiled. Brazil is probably selling out their stockpiles, while US soybean stockpiles keep growing and growing. US farmers will have to sell off all of last year's crop before they can start selling next year's crop. (Or they can just dump the stockpiles without selling them to save on the storage costs). Either way, the 98% drop in Chinese soybean imports has put a huge strain on the soybean farmers.

essentialsaltes said:

We'll probably find out. Soybeans, of course, can be stockpiled. Brazil is probably selling out their stockpiles, while US soybean stockpiles keep growing and growing. US farmers will have to sell off all of last year's crop before they can start selling next year's crop. (Or they can just dump the stockpiles without selling them to save on the storage costs). Either way, the 98% drop in Chinese soybean imports has put a huge strain on the soybean farmers.

Click to expand...

The joy of farming is that the same soil that grows soybeans can grow another crop. And a one month boycott is meant to bully the US, it doesn't mean a country as small as Brazil can replace the US as a supplier. The goal of the US tariffs on Chinese products is to try to get China to start playing on a more equal international trade playing field. Talks are taking place so it looks like it might be working. I doubt that it is the end of the US as a supplier in the international world of trade.

blackribbon said:

it doesn't mean a country as small as Brazil can replace the US as a supplier.

Click to expand...

Huh?

10 Countries With Largest Soybean Production
List of countries by soybean production - Wikipedia

10 Countries With Largest Soybean Production

1. USA (108.0 million metric tons)
2. Brazil (86.8 million metric tons) ...
3. Argentina (53.4 million metric tons) ...
4. China (12.2 million metric tons) ...
5. India (10.5 million metric tons) ...
6. Paraguay (10.0 million metric tons) ...
7. Canada (6.0 million metric tons) ...
8. Ukraine (3.9 million metric tons) ...

Click to expand...

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

So Brazil imports US soybeans to replace that which is getting sold to China because it is cheaper than buying Brazilian soybeans. And the month of November was a statement, not a trend..at least at this point. China is already buying US soybeans again.

Time will tell how this works out. However, do you really believe that it was okay for China to charge high tariffs on imports while we allowed them to import into our country for lower rates giving them a financial advantage over American made products?

blackribbon said:

And a one month boycott

Click to expand...

You are mistaken that it is a one month boycott. In the article I linked, it mentions "Through September 2018, U.S. soybean exports [to] China were down 98% compared to 2017." Here is further info.

November was the first and only month in which the Chinese bought zero US soybeans, but their buying has been way down on average.

I doubt that it is the end of the US as a supplier in the international world of trade.

Click to expand...

Nobody has said that. What we're saying is that Trump's trade war has hit some American industries quite hard. And even the taxpayer money he is handing out to farmers is not making up for the losses.

Yes it might hurt some people just as the imbalances have been hurting the US for a long time.
There are seldom easy fixes. I suspect that it won't kill the entire farming industry. I hope that China changes their policies or we find a new market or new crop before too many farmers are hurt too bad. The bad economic policies of the past administrations have hit more American industries for a much longer time. Personally, I think his policies will be successful in the long run and the US economy will be stronger in the end.

Trump wasn't a very good businessman (six, count 'em, six bankruptcies) and he's not a good president. Sadly, for the country, he seems to be using his position to enhance his business fortunes.

DaisyDay said:

Trump wasn't a very good businessman (six, count 'em, six bankruptcies) and he's not a good president. Sadly, for the country, he seems to be using his position to enhance his business fortunes.

Click to expand...

Based on what factual information? In fact, poor businessmen don't have the means or opportunity to take the kind of risks that can end in multiple bankruptcies. That is not evidence of being a poor businessman. And the US economy is thriving under his policies. I live in a city that was dying just a few years ago. It was freaky because you didn't see any construction anywhere.You drove down roads even in affluent areas that had foreclosure signs taped to their front doors. Now the town is thriving, factories are open, buildings going up everywhere, and every darn old road is under construction from years of neglect.

Unlike the Obamas and the Clintons, Trump won't leave the White House significantly richer than when he went in. If he does, it will be because he hired competent men to run his businesses while he is in office. What I'd like to know is how they earned all those millions when they didn't own any businesses before they took office? Where does a career politician get his/her riches?

blackribbon said:

Based on what factual information? In fact, poor businessmen don't have the means or opportunity to take the kind of risks that can end in multiple bankruptcies. That is not evidence of being a poor businessman. And the US economy is thriving under his policies. I live in a city that was dying just a few years ago. It was freaky because you didn't see any construction anywhere.You drove down roads even in affluent areas that had foreclosure signs taped to their front doors. Now the town is thriving, factories are open, buildings going up everywhere, and every darn old road is under construction from years of neglect.

Unlike the Obamas and the Clintons, Trump won't leave the White House significantly richer than when he went in. If he does, it will be because he hired competent men to run his businesses while he is in office. What I'd like to know is how they earned all those millions when they didn't own any businesses before they took office? Where does a career politician get his/her riches?

Click to expand...

How Barack Obama Has Made $20 Million Since Arriving In Washington

This is how.

blackribbon said:

Based on what factual information? In fact, poor businessmen don't have the means or opportunity to take the kind of risks that can end in multiple bankruptcies.

Click to expand...

Nonsense, any fool can declare bankruptcy - it doesn't take great means or great opportunity to get in over your head.

That is not evidence of being a poor businessman.

Click to expand...

Sure it is, especially if you look into the whys and wherefores. The hotel was a vanity project, not a business venture. The Taj Mahal was badly thought out and poorly financed. It wasn't just one or two bankruptcies. Or three or four. Or even five. It was six. Six times he drove his businesses into the ground. That's not good.

And the US economy is thriving under his policies. I live in a city that was dying just a few years ago.

Click to expand...

And, of course, you do realize that a few years ago there was a GLOBAL recession, a world-wide financial crisis?

It was freaky because you didn't see any construction anywhere.You drove down roads even in affluent areas that had foreclosure signs taped to their front doors. Now the town is thriving, factories are open, buildings going up everywhere, and every darn old road is under construction from years of neglect.

Click to expand...

And if his trade wars and trillion dollar deficits and political instability cause the economy to, um, not thrive, doubtlessly, that will be the fault of the Democrats?

Unlike the Obamas and the Clintons, Trump won't leave the White House significantly richer than when he went in. If he does, it will be because he hired competent men to run his businesses while he is in office. What I'd like to know is how they earned all those millions when they didn't own any businesses before they took office? Where does a career politician get his/her riches?[/QUOTE]

blackribbon said:

Based on what factual information? In fact, poor businessmen don't have the means or opportunity to take the kind of risks that can end in multiple bankruptcies. That is not evidence of being a poor businessman. And the US economy is thriving under his policies. I live in a city that was dying just a few years ago. It was freaky because you didn't see any construction anywhere.You drove down roads even in affluent areas that had foreclosure signs taped to their front doors. Now the town is thriving, factories are open, buildings going up everywhere, and every darn old road is under construction from years of neglect.

Unlike the Obamas and the Clintons, Trump won't leave the White House significantly richer than when he went in. If he does, it will be because he hired competent men to run his businesses while he is in office. What I'd like to know is how they earned all those millions when they didn't own any businesses before they took office? Where does a career politician get his/her riches?

Click to expand...

Mind telling us what city you live in?

blackribbon said:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

So Brazil imports US soybeans to replace that which is getting sold to China because it is cheaper than buying Brazilian soybeans.

Click to expand...

Not just Brazil, Argentina imported a quarter of a million tons of US soy beans in November because there is a new tax break for their farmers exporting their crop.

blackribbon said:

The joy of farming is that the same soil that grows soybeans can grow another crop. And a one month boycott is meant to bully the US, it doesn't mean a country as small as Brazil can replace the US as a supplier. The goal of the US tariffs on Chinese products is to try to get China to start playing on a more equal international trade playing field. Talks are taking place so it looks like it might be working. I doubt that it is the end of the US as a supplier in the international world of trade.

Click to expand...

I have a really big problem with the tone and sentiment of your posts... Basically, what I'm getting from you is a *shrug* "Meh, no big deal..."

These sorts of things are really really big deals....

You can't just willy nilly change what you grow... You can't just say, "well, growing soybeans isn't workign anymore so we are now just gonna switch to corn or wheat or whatever..."

Farming is a lot more complicated than that. Farmers have optimized their soil and treatments for specific crops... not to mention that farming has a lot of equipment and machines that are specific to a certain crop type.

So yes, it is a big deal and should be treated with the respect it warrants

blackribbon said:

The goal of the US tariffs on Chinese products is to try to get China to start playing on a more equal international trade playing field. Talks are taking place so it looks like it might be working. I doubt that it is the end of the US as a supplier in the international world of trade.

Click to expand...

The bold is the biggest mistake and misconception Trump supporters have on Trade. You need to take Econ 101,

The uneducated public can't help but to look at Trade as a football score and to think in terms of "who is winning and who is losing" and whomever gets the best deal is winning and whomever has the lesser deal is losing. That is 100% the worst and incorrect way to think about Trade.

Here is a super basic example of how Trade works to EVERYONE'S BENEFIT

Lets say the US and Canada decide to trade.
Canada produces 100 Million surplus tons of lumber worth $1 Billion dollars however they can NOT use this surplus and there is no market for it
The US Produces 50 million surplus barrels of oil worth $2 Billion dollars however they can NOT use this surplus and there is no market for it
The US has a shortage of lumber and needs 100 Million tons of lumber
Canada has a shortage of oil and needs 50 Million barrels of oil

The US and Canada agree to a trade of 100 million tons of lumber for 50 million barrels of oil.

This results in a trade surplus in Canada's favor, they received $2billion worth of oil yet only traded away $1billion worth of lumber. Is this a bad deal for the US? Did the US lose?

No.

Both parties benefited from this exchange.

In any event, I'm not going to write a book, I just want to highlight that it is incorrect to regard Trade as some sort of football game and looking at the surplus figures as if it is some sort of score. That is the absolute wrong way to think about trade.

Brazil and other countries importing US soy beans are playing the long game. US growers can't sell to China, but if growers and distributors in other countries wanted to, they'd have to cut their traditional markets (there are only so many soy beans in the world) and risk US growers selling there instead and gaining a foothold.

So instead, they buy up US exports (likely at a lower price since US growers just lost their main market), and sell to both China and their traditional markets, which keeps both satisfied and stops US distributors getting in. Meanwhile farmers in Brazil and elsewhere slowly expand their crops and gradually edge out US growers.

Trogdor the Burninator said:

Brazil and other countries importing US soy beans are playing the long game.

Click to expand...

For some reason, the US has always seemed to have myopia and an inability to look beyond a few years down the road...

we have no long game...