How much is net?
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2. What analysts project over the next decade — wide range of estimates
Modelers disagree sharply on decade‑long revenue. The Tax Foundation’s general equilibrium modeling (as summarized in reporting) suggested tariffs could raise $2.4 trillion over ten years on a conventional basis and increase 2025 federal revenue by $162.9 billion
[3]. The Peterson Institute estimated a 15‑point tariff shock could yield $3.9 trillion before macroeconomic offsets and about $3.2 trillion after some economic feedback, but that net could fall to roughly $1.5 trillion if foreign retaliation occurs
[4]. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and others note that those headline projections do not account fully for legal uncertainty, refunds, or broader economic costs
[2].
3. The crucial distinction: gross receipts vs. net fiscal impact
Many sources emphasize that gross customs duties (what shows up on the Treasury’s receipts line) are not the same as the net fiscal gain once you account for: refunds and exclusions, pass‑through to higher consumer prices, reduced real incomes and taxable activity, and any costs tied to retaliation by trading partners
[6] [7] [4]. For example, PIIE notes a $3.9 trillion headline could shrink dramatically after economic effects and retaliation are included
[4]. CRFB and others highlight that even with the tariff windfall the FY2025 deficit remained large — about $1.8–$1.9 trillion — showing tariffs did not eliminate fiscal shortfalls
[2] [8].
But yeah, some people will consider the facts and accept them in time while others will just double down.
