How is the Economy Doing Right Now?

[mark46]

Trump has changed our economy. Personally, I think that US is in excellent economic shape and is poised to be for decades. The political changes are much more troubling.
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SOME THOUGHTS
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Inflation was at 3% last year. It will probably be between 3 and 4 % in the future. Yes, Trump's national sales tax on most foreign goods will have a permanent negative effect. Certainly, prices will affect some items more and some less. Last year eggs. This year coffee and beef. The cost of vegetables will continue to rise because of tariffs and because cheap labor in the US will be harder to secure.

But there will be very low unemployment for those who are willing to work. And wages will continue to go up, especially for the very poor.

Interest rates will tumble, makes lots, lots more things more affordable, especially cars and rent.
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The economy will be in good shape compared to the any decade in the past. Finally, middle class wages will increase, even after being adjusted for inflation. That hasn't happened since the 70's.

And yes, our retirement savings will be in good shape for the majority. [yes, our tax rates need to be increased and our national debt reduced] The reason tax rates are so unpopular is because the federal government is so inefficient in so many areas 9
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Much is wrong. The overall economy is not one of these.

Will the youth be able to afford a house? Will the youth want to work and succeed or will many work as little as possible. Will our addiction to junk food and other drugs be lessened? Who will bear the costs of climate change? Will we continue to encourage folks to build on the coasts that are most vulnerable? How much will we devote to new technologies that will reduce our use of water? Will be encouraged to eat less meat? Will we realize just how much beef and lawns really cost us?

The people will need to depend much more on state governments than on the federal government. Is this a terrible thing. Personally, I think not. But let's be clear, the poor in Republican states will suffer greatly, certainly after Trump is gone.

 

[mark46]

Nah. This is 100% bad policy. I mean how many experts would a person need to hear that from?

perhaps the same number of experts that insisted at the beginning of the year that we were headed for a major recession.

 

[mark46]

Putting money in cash is a guaranteed loss due to inflation. Money Market or high yield savings is a better choice for short term savings.

Consider all the folks who listened to the recession projections of experts at the beginning of the year, and even more so in April. Those folks took their money out of the market while the rest see records each week.

Pulling out of the market and waiting for a better time to own stock is a really terrible way to invest. This has been the reality for many, many decades.

Those who turned to cash at the beginning of the year or even in April will never recover what they would have gained. There is a general principle of the US stock market. Over time, the market goes up.

 

[camille70]

I heard a discussion saying that Sherwin-Williams ending their 401k price matching was a sign our economy is much worse off than is truly known. They did the same during covid, though.

Sherwin-Williams suspends 401(k)-matching amid weak sales

Sherwin-Williams will suspend matching contributions to employee 401(k) plans starting October, citing weak demand, inflation, and global trade pressures.

www.cleveland.com

 

[rambot]

Do you remember what we used to call bad inflation in the 70's?

I remember what you called it in 2024

 

[rambot]

Trump has changed our economy. Personally, I think that US is in excellent economic shape and is poised to be for decades. The political changes are much more troubling.
========================
SOME THOUGHTS
=========
Inflation was at 3% last year. It will probably be between 3 and 4 % in the future. Yes, Trump's national sales tax on most foreign goods will have a permanent negative effect. Certainly, prices will affect some items more and some less. Last year eggs. This year coffee and beef. The cost of vegetables will continue to rise because of tariffs and because cheap labor in the US will be harder to secure.

But there will be very low unemployment for those who are willing to work. And wages will continue to go up, especially for the very poor.

Interest rates will tumble, makes lots, lots more things more affordable, especially cars and rent.
=============
The economy will be in good shape compared to the any decade in the past. Finally, middle class wages will increase, even after being adjusted for inflation. That hasn't happened since the 70's.

And yes, our retirement savings will be in good shape for the majority. [yes, our tax rates need to be increased and our national debt reduced] The reason tax rates are so unpopular is because the federal government is so inefficient in so many areas 9
================
Much is wrong. The overall economy is not one of these.

Will the youth be able to afford a house? Will the youth want to work and succeed or will many work as little as possible. Will our addiction to junk food and other drugs be lessened? Who will bear the costs of climate change? Will we continue to encourage folks to build on the coasts that are most vulnerable? How much will we devote to new technologies that will reduce our use of water? Will be encouraged to eat less meat? Will we realize just how much beef and lawns really cost us?

The people will need to depend much more on state governments than on the federal government. Is this a terrible thing. Personally, I think not. But let's be clear, the poor in Republican states will suffer greatly, certainly after Trump is gone.

What are the current indicators of a strong economy?

Most of this post is prognostication

 

[Palmfever]

It seems like there haven't been many pointed discussions about the economy down in the US right now.
Seems that the DOW continues to improve.
Unemployment is at BEST, underwhelming.
The inflation on foods is becoming quite untenable for many.
Farming, as an American industry is on the brink of complete disaster (if we are to believe American farmers)

But I don't live there.

What are you passionate about here? What are the really GREAT things you see happenning? What are the troubling things?

I'm curious.

U.S. Economy at a Glance | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Perspective from the BEA Accounts BEA produces some of the most closely watched economic statistics that influence decisions of government officials, business people, and individuals. These statistics provide a comprehensive, up-to-date picture of the U.S. economy. The data on this page are...

www.bea.gov

 

[NxNW]

I heard a discussion saying that Sherwin-Williams ending their 401k price matching was a sign our economy is much worse off than is truly known. They did the same during covid, though.

I had an employer do that years ago, but they'll likely reinstate it within a year or two.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Well comedians are definitely thr biggest threat to america

It'll be interesting to see what the right-leaning comedy podcast / Kill Tony crowd will say about this blatant attack on comedic free speech.

 

[FAITH-IN-HIM]

Me either, but it has seemed to have done irreparable damage.

The pandemic brought significant changes globally, affecting the economy, lifestyles, perspectives, daily relationships, and our understanding of what is important. However, most people expected that the end of the pandemic would mean an immediate return to pre-pandemic life, which is a rather shortsighted perspective and does not reflect historical precedent. Major world events such as World War I, World War II, the Black Death, the Great Depression, or even the recession in 2008 took decades, sometimes centuries, for societies to recover fully. Even then, with new forms of normality, the world inevitably changed.

 

[rambot]

It'll be interesting to see what the right-leaning comedy podcast / Kill Tony crowd will say about this blatant attack on comedic free speech.

Will it be interesting though......?

 

[iluvatar5150]

Will it be interesting though......?

Sure it will. I find lots of things interesting, so... *shrug*. But I'll be interested to see who wakes up to what all the woke libs have been saying for a while and who continues to ride the Trump Train because it hasn't targeted them yet.

 

[Say it aint so]

I remember when Republican voters "cared" about inflation.

That was back when they cared about "cancel culture".

 

[Say it aint so]

I am retired but have a side hustle machine shop in my garage.
Needed to by some more tool holders which normally cost $41.
They now because of the steel tariffs they cost $62.
An increase of some 40+ percent.
I can feel the pain of that knife manufacturer.
Make America Great Again.

 

[rambot]

U.S. Economy at a Glance | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Perspective from the BEA Accounts BEA produces some of the most closely watched economic statistics that influence decisions of government officials, business people, and individuals. These statistics provide a comprehensive, up-to-date picture of the U.S. economy. The data on this page are...

www.bea.gov

Thanks for sharing.

So much of this looks EXACTLY the same as under Biden...remember? When I was told America was heading for an absolute catastrophy.

But let's also remember that the HUGE blip in your trade deficit has put a SIGNIFICANT control on inflation. But that is DEFINITELY not going to last forever. Wait a few months when the effects of tarrifs hit. I'm not even an economist and see the logic of that.

 

[rambot]

I am retired but have a side hustle machine shop in my garage.
Needed to by some more tool holders which normally cost $41.
They now because of the steel tariffs they cost $62.
I can feel the pain of that knife manufacturer.
Make America Great Again.

What kinds of things to you "machine"?

 

[Say it aint so]

What kinds of things to you "machine"?

One offs.
I have a drag race car and a lot of drag race friends who need one off parts.
Lithium battery boxes and shock mounts are my bread and butter.
But I CAD/CAM about anything within the envelope of my machine.

 

[rambot]

Plunk

 

[Servus]

I sincerely wonder if the pandemic has seriously ruined our economy in the years to come?

Who knows?

Well republicans were saying all of the extensive lockdowns and shutdowns were going to seriously damage the economy, which was laughed off by the democrats who mocked their concerns.

This was a popular meme democrats put out at the time.

 

[Nithavela]

Charlie Kirk is dead, and you ask about the economy?!