Trump Tariffs work in less than three days!

[wing2000]

And the American people think the system is working? ​

Polls show a majority of the American people are not buying it...which includes some Trump voters:

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/12/donald-trump-trade-poll-00449708

 

[eclipsenow]

Yes - it seems to be a weird picture.
The main thing to keep in mind is that the impact has not been felt yet because the tariffs are not really running yet!
As Wall Street says - it's TACO trading - Trump Always Chickens Out.

Now - while I don't take American public polls as any reflection on the reality - because half of Americans seem to watch Fox News - it is interesting to note that even amongst this population (where 15% might be QANON believers!) that:-

VOTERS NOW SEE THE ECONOMY SOLIDLY IN TRUMP’S HANDS

• 62% of voters say Trump is mostly responsible for the state of the economy today (+7), including a majority across political parties.
• 53% of voters trust the Trump administration and Republicans more than Democrats in Congress to manage the economy (+3).
• 56% of voters say Trump is losing the battle against inflation and that his tariffs are harming the economy.
• 56% of voters say the U.S. is not in a recession, though 59% of Democrats say we are in a recession.
• 46% of voters, a plurality, say recent economic news is mostly negative, though more voters say they’ve seen mostly positive news stories in the last few weeks (31%; +7 pts., June 2025).
  

  Press Release: July 2025 – Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll

  harvardharrispoll.com

It's all a bit nauseating. Biden had to deal with the legacy of Trump's awful mishandling of Covid - in the way he cut various FEMA and pandemic departments just in time to mess up America when Covid landed. Biden's watch also involved the GLOBAL energy crisis - which was a complicated perfect storm of events involving Russia's war with Ukraine, a backlog of energy supply issues due to Covid, and even drought in Brazil reducing their hydro power so that their demand for gas went up! And 20 other factors as well!

And the American people just blame all these MASSIVE international events impacting the American economy on Biden? I'm sorry - but Biden just does not have that kind of power!

Also - Bidenomics was working! Rather than threatening the world with a big tariff stick to get dubious returns in 'deals' that are largely untested waffle, Biden just created the most substantial industrial stimulus policy in generations. (With the most boring name - the "Inflation Reduction Act.") It was working! Factories were popping up, battery and other clean tech was blossoming, it had a doubling curve, and America was going to have all sorts of new home-grown industries.

Then Trump got in and started attacking NATO, humiliating democratic friends in Europe, attacking this, attacking that... all bluster and mayhem like he thinks he's on his Reality TV show.

And Americans think Trump is doing a good job? That global inflationary trends were Biden's fault, but Trump has cleaned all that up?

That's just delusional!

 

[loveofourlord]

I think the economy is just fine. The GDP is up. The economy is certainly not in the tank as predicted by some including economists whom the left loved to tout.

you know why the doomsday hasn't really happened? One word, Taco. trump has a knack for bringing the US to the brink of ruin then pretending to be magnaamous and reversing things. He kept the tariffs on Japan till about the point where by the time new stuff came in if he removed them there wouldn't be enough stock. No one buys his tariffs, heck people buy against them to make a fortune

 

[loveofourlord]

You don't have any clue how negotiations work do you. This is why Democrats are going to continue to lose. You are lost on how he works and gets things done.

Yes of course more, the sky is falling mentality.

Why don't you just wait and see what's going to happen before projecting more doom. I'm not projecting anything.

There's a good chance its going to be okay. Trump isn't going to do anything to destroy his presidency or ruin the chances for republicans in the future. He'll pull back as needed. I mean the economy could be humming along just fine and many Democrats would still find something to complain about and warn of impending doom and not vote for republicans. But independents and more centrists will.

Hey, you can take solace in k ow if your prognostications come true, you will be able to stop everything in a couple of years and be on control in 3 1/2. And you'll be able to institute all the social programs you want because the country will be in such a disastrous state. You'll be able take all the rich people's money and make almost everyone middle class.

I don't think you know how negotiations work, why would anyone negotiate with trump when the second things turn bad he bails. Only thing trumps tariffs have done to Canada is made us much stronger as were looking to do the stuff we used to with the states elsewhere, or in house. You haven't hurt us, or made us negotiate, you just made us much stronger, I'm happy about todays tarifs, as they will A) not last and B) continue to help us,

 

[Say it aint so]

I think the economy is just fine. The GDP is up. The economy is certainly not in the tank as predicted by some including economists whom the left loved to tout.

Yes, GDP is up as businesses bought ahead to beat Aug 1st Trump tariff taxes.
The job numbers are down with a weak July report and the previous months revised downward.
The Consumer Price Index is up.
Unemployment is up.
Inflation ticked up.
Tourism is taking a beating.

Just as those economists predicted.

 

[rjs330]

Like I wrote, you won't defend the policy. BTW..Mexico was granted another 90 days (is that the 2nd or 3rd extension? I'm losing count).

Does it matter?

 

[rjs330]

I don't think you know how negotiations work, why would anyone negotiate with trump when the second things turn bad he bails. Only thing trumps tariffs have done to Canada is made us much stronger as were looking to do the stuff we used to with the states elsewhere, or in house. You haven't hurt us, or made us negotiate, you just made us much stronger, I'm happy about todays tarifs, as they will A) not last and B) continue to help us,

Apparently a LOT of countries have negotiated with us. And we have already collected billions. So you guys go ahead and be stronger. Good for you.

 

[loveofourlord]

Apparently a LOT of countries have negotiated with us. And we have already collected billions. So you guys go ahead and be stronger. Good for you.

....yeah, most of those deals have been shown to be fake, or overblown, like trumps claim europe will spend more money then they make, or the recent deal with japan. what actual deals have been done and not just announced, or claimed? yeah, you collected billions while otehrs pay more good job.

 

[eclipsenow]

Apparently a LOT of countries have negotiated with us. And we have already collected billions. So you guys go ahead and be stronger. Good for you.

Apparently?
Nope. There are about 7.
And the tariffs have not kicked in yet because TACO

When they do, then we'll be able to check the damage. The tariffs that have been negotiated are not as high as feared - which is mediocre news.

It means inflation for Americans - but hardly high enough to stimulate bringing jobs home to America.

Biden's IRA was all carrot no stick - and it was brilliant at stimulating domestic manufacturing of green tech.

 

[rjs330]

Apparently?
Nope. There are about 7.
And the tariffs have not kicked in yet because TACO

When they do, then we'll be able to check the damage. The tariffs that have been negotiated are not as high as feared - which is mediocre news.

It means inflation for Americans - but hardly high enough to stimulate bringing jobs home to America.

Biden's IRA was all carrot no stick - and it was brilliant at stimulating domestic manufacturing of green tech.

Yes tariffs have kicked in. We've collected billions.

Maybe it will be horrible. Maybe it will be the end of our economy. Maybe the the US will crash and burn.

Im willing to wait and see if these deals make any difference in the long run or they cause harm. The fact is, I don't know. These are all deals struck by countries. A lot of them. Maybe in the long run they will be good.

Or maybe it will turn out to be a disaster. If tgat happens Trump will be forever known as the destroyer of the conservative movement. The left will win and we will get the socialist utopia they've always wanted.

 

[eclipsenow]

Yes tariffs have kicked in. We've collected billions.

One month - but what happens long term as the market adjusts, and people start buying from elsewhere?

Adam Smith wrote AGAINST tariffs in the "Wealth of Nations."

If it's a bet between Donald Trump and Adam Smith - I'm going with Smith - as are most economists!

Maybe it will be horrible.

Like Australia being a decade behind, stuck with black and white TV when the rest of the world had moved to colour.
All because we put tariffs on electronics to try and protect a dying industry at home.
Our tax on our own people buying cheaper overseas TV's was based on a complete myth:

As IF Australia had the cheap labour, cheap dollar, and economies of scale of the Asian manufacturing giants!​

We were never going to compete - and we missed out on what everyone else was enjoying for an extra 10 years!

Why is Trump so convinced? Well - he's Trump. I don't know that he's read a book in his adult life.
But he also has Howard Lutnick whispering in his ear - and Lutnick makes the hair stand up on the back of my neck!

Maybe it will be the end of our economy.

End? That's a bit apocalyptic. Harm? Slow? Send into recession? Maybe that.

Maybe the the US will crash and burn.

I certainly hope not - as that's another scenario to what we're actually discussing!

Im willing to wait and see if these deals make any difference in the long run or they cause harm.

I'm willing to side with Adam Smith and the majority of the world's economists, right now!

There's the economics of it.

There's the geopolitics of it.

If you are not sure about the loyalty of someone you're trading with (like China) - then friend-shore - like Biden was!

But don't alienate all your friends with huge tariffs! And don't threaten NATO! (Trump has weakened the previous image of invincible unity of the western world. Russia is laughing at what Trump has been doing, and rubbing their hands together with glee!)

The fact is, I don't know.

I'm no economist - but I'm adult enough to recognise when I'm not an expert in something - it's probably good enough wisdom to listen to the VAST majority of experts!

These are all deals struck by countries. A lot of them.

7 of them.
Only 7.
Look up the facts.

Maybe in the long run they will be good.

They might be survivable - but good?
Tariffs increase inflation and reduce trade.

Trade means you do what you do cheapest and best, and I do my thing - and we trade - and BOTH get richer.
Tariffs are something you only slap on an industry that is essential for national security - IF you don't trust the other guys!

Or maybe it will turn out to be a disaster.

If by disaster you mean slower economic growth, reduced wages, slowing economic activity, growing inflation, potentially rising unemployment.... then yes. Disaster. End of America? Not so much. But bashed up economy? Yeah, probably.

IF Trump doesn't just TACO again!

If tgat happens Trump will be forever known as the destroyer of the conservative movement.

According to The Lincoln Project and Never Trumpers and many other Republicans that are voting Democrat until MAGA dies - he already has.

And on the world stage? I can tell you the Australian political experts I'm reading have never seen Australia so utterly disgusted with an American President.

The left will win and we will get the socialist utopia they've always wanted.

No utopia - but if you nationalised just over half your healthcare to be government owned and operated, you might bring your healthcare costs down to the OECD average AND save $1 to $1.5 TRILLION a year WHILE offering universal healthcare coverage just for being an American citizen! How does that sound? That's the Australian model.

And that's not even socialism - just Ordo-Liberalism. There's about 12 MAJOR settings on the dial between a totally anarchic 'free market' and true, formal Communism. But many Americans are just not aware of what happens in other countries.