Well today interest rates climbed again, dollar down, gold and silver up. The climb has been occurring for the last few weeks. Why? Because the markets are anticipating larger debt in the USA, plus the Moody's credit downgrade. Lower credit and confidence means that the USA will pay more interest on new debt obligations and it could snowball. Want to go further? This bill will do that. Turkey pushed this edge. They now are doing better with current inflation 37% and borrowing rates for new debt at 35%. Yes, that is actually an improvement for them. Zimbabwe once added six zeros to their dollar. a million became a dollar in less than one year. Now that was an aggressive push. The USA will never go that far, but the cracks are showing and adding up.
Please do not get estimates of growth or benefits of new programs from politicians or even pressured agencies. From history I will give two examples of how wrong they usually are. First, Bush's prescription drug plan cost far more than anticipated.
"By the time President Bush left office there was no change in Social Security. But a new drug benefit had been added to Medicare, with no source of financing. The unfunded liability in the new Part D program was estimated at the time to be $17 trillion. (
All estimates by the Social Security and Medicare Trustees.)"
The Worst Entitlement Program In Our History
Yes, the costs were far more than what Bush projected.
My second example was how the GOP was wrong about the Clinton tax hikes and surplus. The GOP was quite excited about the budget surplus under President Clinton. He had raised taxes and while many in the GOP suggested that the hikes would tank the economy, there was good fortune and the USA ran a surplus. So the GOP decided under Reagan to finance tax cuts based on the rosy projections of the surplus continuing in the future. Surprise, surprise, the surplus quickly dissipated and deficits were back with a vengeance.
Such projections on anticipated revenue and costs from politicians are very dangerous. They almost always lean toward the new program or cut in the best possible light in order for it to pass. Promises like the Iraq war will pay for the war, or rare minerals will pay back the USA for Ukraine are not based in reality. Politicians are snake oil salesmen who use pretend numbers to get what they want. Households that plan this way often go bankrupt. I pray the USA does not.
The point is that budgets should be practical. Tax cuts should be fully funded too. In this bill they are not. I would argue that like the other examples I gave here, the consequences will be far worse than anticipated.