US economy may be entering a recession

[Aryeh Jay]

Operation Warp Speed was amazing. The Democrats said it just could not be done in that time frame. Trump probably saved millions of lives worldwide through that one initiative of his.

Operation Warp Speed? Isn't that where the government rushed through an untested and dangerous vaccine that is reported to have killed hundreds of thousands of innocent people? And then fired people who refused the jab? That Operation Warp Speed?

 

[loveofourlord]

Operation Warp Speed? Isn't that where the government rushed through an untested and dangerous vaccine that is reported to have killed hundreds of thousands of innocent people?

The right can't seem to make up it's mind :> Half think it's a globalist demonic plot to kill everyone, half thinks it's great.

 

[loveofourlord]

Operation Warp Speed was amazing. The Democrats said it just could not be done in that time frame. Trump probably saved millions of lives worldwide through that one initiative of his.

it's nice that he helped a bit with that but really it was others that did it, all he did was try to push it forward faster.

 

[FireDragon76]

The housing market had crashed. This began under the Bush administration. Banks were issuing loans that borrowers couldn't repay for their mortgages. And that resulted in a chain reaction of issues in which, as banks failed, businesses couldn't borrow money for large-scale projects, and couldn't pay their employees, which led to layoffs and so on and so on.

The housing bubble itself has deep roots beginning in the 1970's, when both British and American political elites on the Right started promoting easy access to credit to increase single-family home ownership and break class consciousness by promoting what was then called 'the ownership society". It's not a coincidence that the "McMansion" emerged during the heyday of this ideology in the 1990's, being not just about having a relatively large home, but a home that resembled the upper-classes' houses in architectural style.

 

[Landon Caeli]

If a recession does occur, it will be the first that's initiated by the actions of one man.

I've been calling for tariffs for years. Maybe someone recalls my respect for Pat Buchanan, with his take on the benefits of "owning the vineyard"?

 

[rambot]

I've been calling for tariffs for years.

Given every expert on the matter says tariffs are a bad idea, I'm curious why you'd spend so much time calling for a strategy like that?

 

[durangodawood]

Operation Warp Speed was amazing. The Democrats said it just could not be done in that time frame. Trump probably saved millions of lives worldwide through that one initiative of his.

He managed that one aspect of the pandemic very well. I give him complete credit for doing the right thing there.

Not that it was a stroke of genius. I mean, any president would have gotten the same advice and done the same thing. But it was the right thing to do, and he did it, and I believe it helped people I care about.

 

[Landon Caeli]

Given every expert on the matter says tariffs are a bad idea, I'm curious why you'd spend so much time calling for a strategy like that?

I'd love to understand their rationale on how *owning* the majority of production of manufactured goods could be a bad thing. If the US produced 80% of all manufactured goods sold domestically, how could that be bad for our economy?

...Most likely, these "experts" are democrats first, and "experts" second.

 

[expos4ever]

I've been calling for tariffs for years.

Why would any reasonable person believe that tariffs, at least the ones being foisted upon us by Donald Trump, are a good idea given that the overwhelming majority of experts think this is a disaster?

 

[rambot]

I'd love to understand their rationale on how *owning* the majority of production of manufactured goods could be a bad thing.

You are talking about "the hopeful outcome". The assumption is that that would happen in today's global economy. And that assumption is misguided (that's a nice way to put it).

Other posters have explained that the COST of doing manufacturing in the US is the truely cost prohibitive part of manufacturing in the US. You'd MUCH higher tarrifs.

If the US produced 80% of all manufactured goods sold domestically, how could that be bad for our economy?

"If 'only and buts were candies and nuts then every day would be Untedanke fest"
Your mistake is that you believe tariffs WILL lead to that.

They will not. They will lead to higher prices and a few shifts of manufacturing. Nothing monumental

...Most likely, these "experts" are democrats first, and "experts" second.

Again...the ONLY way to explain away experts that disagree with trump is that they MUST be people you disagree with? Seriously? What posesses people to think like that?

 

[RileyG]

The housing market had crashed. This began under the Bush administration. Banks were issuing loans that borrowers couldn't repay for their mortgages. And that resulted in a chain reaction of issues in which, as banks failed, businesses couldn't borrow money for large-scale projects, and couldn't pay their employees, which led to layoffs and so on and so on.

Thanks for the input.

 

[Bradskii]

If the US produced 80% of all manufactured goods sold domestically, how could that be bad for our economy?

Because they'd be more expensive. You can't build electronics as cheaply as South Korea. You can't make white goods as cheaply as Japan. You can't make advanced chips as cheaply as Taiwan. You can't make anything as cheaply as China. And you'd need to wait for years to build up your manufacturing base. And the increase in manufacturing jobs would be minimal due to robotics, increased efficiency and AI. And your supply lines are mostly external anyway.

Apart from that...well, give it a go.

 

[mindlight]

The US economy is expected to have contracted in the first quarter of the year:

and from the AP, consumer confidence is falling:

https://apnews.com/article/consumer-confidence-conference-board-economy-spending-4ec3430138e6d872a6dae273e212edd1

That doesn't really surprise me. I notice less traffic on the roads in Orlando. My parents commented that when they went to the local IKEA, it was nearly empty. Usually it's full of tourists.

There were deep systemic problems with the US economy coming into this crisis. Trade and Budget deficits, the disparity between the 1 percenters and the rest. Americans have been spending above their means because the benefits of their work are concentrated in fewer and fewer hands while the expectations of Americans have continued to outpace their wallets.

Trump is the trigger that pushes everything over the edge. Some of his reforms may help ease the systemic issues e.g. increased efficiency in Federal spending and some of the manufacturing onshoring, especially from Asia. But most of the benefits of reshoring will go to people who do not need the money and for whom the collapse of savings, pensions, and the rise in prices (resulting from the end of globalisation) are NOT critically damaging.( Edit)

Most Americans voted for greed over common sense but will most likely end up poorer in a more insecure world in which America's friends no longer trust it.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world will adjust, and global trade will continue as we trade with each other. The difference will be that the center of gravity of global trade now shifts to Europe and China. This is not what any sane person who values freedom and solidarity with allies ever wanted to happen

 

[Landon Caeli]

Why would any reasonable person believe that tariffs, at least the ones being foisted upon us by Donald Trump, are a good idea given that the overwhelming majority of experts think this is a disaster?

The experts are correct *in the short term*. In the long run, and for national security, the tariffs are going to help the United States.

 

[Landon Caeli]

Most Americans voted for greed over common sense.........

No, we voted for our grandchildren. The lesser half of America voted for greed, and against their grandchildren, who they probably don't even care about to begin with because they're not foreigners.

 

[mindlight]

The experts are correct *in the short term*. In the long run, and for national security, the tariffs are going to help the United States.

In the long run, the benefits of globalization are :
1) lower priced products from core competency producers
2) Mutually beneficial trade arrangements that give greater market access and stability to supply and demand
3) Global competition helping to eliminate corruption and poor trade practices
4) Increased technological and cultural exchange

Without these, the USA will grow more slowly.

America's big national security advantage is friendly neighbors - north and south, two oceans east and west and friends across the world.

Canada and Mexico are not smiling, and your friends don't trust you anymore - perhaps it is even touch and go if you will be able to afford a navy in ten years time, but I am sure that in the la la land of Fox News, the world looks very different right now.

 

[iluvatar5150]

No, we voted for our grandchildren. The lesser half of America voted for greed, and against their grandchildren, who they probably don't even care about to begin with because they're not foreigners.

No, you didn't vote for your grandchildren. You voted for yourselves. You voted for a blusterer with an administration full of cranks and quacks who fed your anger and resentment and told you what you wanted to hear. Your grandchildren will not be helped by driving away America's allies and undermining relationships that have facilitated what's arguably the most peaceful 80 years in world history. Nor will they be helped by your party's fetishizing of fossil fuels and Trump's insistence on bolstering the coal industry while kneecapping work on green energy. Nor will they be helped by the wrenches thrown into the works of scientific research that have kept America atop the world's economy. Nor will they be helped by his dismantling of institutional norms and safeguards that have ushered in an era of cartoonish levels of incompetence and corruption.

The only thing your vote here will do for your grandchildren is serve as a warning of what not to do.

 

[FireDragon76]

No, you didn't vote for your grandchildren.

I honestly believe many did believe they were doing just that. I've seen it in my own parents. They act like their vote for Trump is genuinely going to make the lives of everybody they care about better . Which is just crazy, I know, but they seem to really believe it.

But then, that's what cults of personality do. They cause people to engage in projection based on wishful thinking onto the leader, and discount facts that don't seem congruent with that. It's a kind of magical or wishful thinking through and through.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Per CNN:

US stocks were volatile and skyrocketed higher today after President Donald Trump posted on social media that he authorized a 90-day pause on all the reciprocal tariffs that went into effect at midnight, with the exception of China.

US stocks had a mixed start to the day after China announced significant retaliation and the European Union announced countermeasures against Trump’s enormous “reciprocal” tariffs that had gone into effect earlier in the day, upending global trade.

Yet US stocks surged in the afternoon after Trump posted on Truth Social that he authorized the 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs.

Here’s a snapshot: The Dow skyrocketed more than 2,300 points, or 6.2%. The S&P 500 shot up 7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 8.5%.



Who else here is having a pleasant afternoon after doing some "buying the dip" over the past few days?

 

[iluvatar5150]

I honestly believe many did believe they were doing just that. I've seen it in my own parents. They act like their vote for Trump is genuinely going to make the lives of everybody they care about better . Which is just crazy, I know, but they seem to really believe it.

But then, that's what cults of personality do. They cause people to engage in projection based on wishful thinking onto the leader, and discount facts that don't seem congruent with that. It's a kind of magical or wishful thinking through and through.

Oh, I'm sure they believe that, too. But many people are deluded about their own motivations.