US economy may be entering a recession

[Nithavela]

LOL. Unbelievable. First he gets falsely criticized for doing poorly, then he gets falsely vilified for doing well. Like with Trump if he cured cancer, he'd be vilified for it.

One can at the same time do poorly by slashing twitter's worth and do well by hauling in lucrative government contracts, aid and tax breaks.

And yes, he also got some nice deals from the Biden administration, like 400 million dollar orders for Tesla Cybertrucks.

 

[Laodicean60]

I didn't think the Trump recession would happen this quickly, but I also didn't think Trump would do this much damage in his first month and change of his second term.

Please don't start with the Trump recession, this recession has been in the making for a while now. The effects of what's happening to countries on your side of the world will eventually come here. I will add tariffs that will compound this issue.

If Obama hadn't bailed out the Wall Street banks, it probably would have been a deep depression, not a recession. What he did was politically unpopular, but probably the only realistic way to avoid catastrophe.

I remember the mantra about debt from Republican campaigners, it made common sense. Finally, after 17 years, we are reducing some spending. My tribal delusion popped when I heard a couple of years ago that we went to Iraq over the petrol dollar. We are still paying for it. Democrats were somewhat correct when they said we were doing it for oil.

 

[ozso]

One can at the same time do poorly by slashing twitter's worth and do well by hauling in lucrative government contracts, aid and tax breaks.

And yes, he also got some nice deals from the Biden administration, like 400 million dollar orders for Tesla Cybertrucks.

Let's leave out that in all likelihood he's going to save the US many billions of dollars. Strange plot isn't it? Bilking the US while working tirelessly to help the US financially.

 

[7thKeeper]

One doesn't have to be a fan of Musk - but he has proven it was possible to fire 80% of the Twitter workforce and make it a better platform. The same pattern (albeit to a lesser extent) may hold for many Government departments and large corporations.

I'm not sure how one can call wiping out ~75%+ of the company value out and reducing moderation to the point that hate speech (and I mean literal hate speech) against Jews and other groups and conspiracy theories start to flourish to the point where advertisers pull out, as "making it better".

 

[DaisyDay]

Oh no! I cannot say I’m surprised.

Sincere question only:

Weren’t we in a recession when Obama was in office? I graduated high school in 2014, and Obama was president. I remember people complaining back then…

Yes, that was/is known as the Great Recession. It started in 2007 and reached its nadir in 2009, the year Obama took office, and ended that same year - 2009. This was a global financial crisis.

 

[Valletta]

I'm not a fan of the Trump admin approach to wildly apply tariffs to nearly the whole world, I think a smarter approach based on reciprocity and fairness would be better. E.g. the USA claim the EU unfairly blocks imports of its beef, but the EU blocks USA beef because it doesn't meet the EU's health requirements. I support the EU's viewpoint in this.

Trump is not "wildly" applying tariffs. While the mainstream press is once again slanting the information, Trump has made it clear he wants to level the trading field, as you can see in the article below about the tariffs in India. India does not even accept U.S. agricultural products. With Mexico and Canada Trump says he expects cooperation on people and fentanyl crossing the border. While both countries have improved on stopping migrants the fentanyl flow has not significantly altered. China needs to stop proving the ingredients for fentanyl to these two countries, as well a quite stealing intellectual property.

World Bank Echoes Donald Trump's Sentiment on India's Tariff Policies

The report came hours before India was set to release its gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for the December quarter

www.outlookbusiness.com

 

[RileyG]

Yes, that was/is known as the Great Recession. It started in 2007 and reached its nadir in 2009, the year Obama took office, and ended that same year - 2009. This was a global financial crisis.

Thank you for the info.

 

[FireDragon76]

I didn't think the Trump recession would happen this quickly, but I also didn't think Trump would do this much damage in his first month and change of his second term.

Lots of federal employees are spooked. Spooked people tend to cut down dramatically on spending.

 

[Bradskii]

And yes, he also got some nice deals from the Biden administration, like 400 million dollar orders for Tesla Cybertrucks.

Do they come with stickers?

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[Reluctant Theologian]

I'm not sure how one can call wiping out ~75%+ of the company value out and reducing moderation to the point that hate speech (and I mean literal hate speech) against Jews and other groups and conspiracy theories start to flourish to the point where advertisers pull out, as "making it better".

Well, I notice on X there is definitely more freedom to express a wider variety of opinions or facts than previously; that is a win. What is 'hate' ? Freedom of speech would need to include the freedom to dislike ideas, religions or even people. My truth is someone else's lie - that's freedom of thinking/speech.

In practical terms my preference would be to draw the line at calls for physical violence towards people - but other than that, I'm OK with anything.

I'm Christian but I defend the right of others to dislike or even hate my religion - and write about that. And vice-versa of course.

In financial terms, regardless the valuation, X's cash flow has improved since the take-over - its use is increasing. Some progressives are fleeing to BlueSkye - personally I have to inclination to move to a platform with moderation/censorship.

 

[civilwarbuff]

The US economy is expected to have contracted in the first quarter of the year:

and from the AP, consumer confidence is falling:

https://apnews.com/article/consumer-confidence-conference-board-economy-spending-4ec3430138e6d872a6dae273e212edd1

That doesn't really surprise me. I notice less traffic on the roads in Orlando. My parents commented that when they went to the local IKEA, it was nearly empty. Usually it's full of tourists.

I am surprised we have lasted this long without a major correction......after all, what goes up must come down.......

And before anyone really starts complaining about 'Trump Economy' it takes a little more time than 6 weeks before a newly inaugurated president can 'own' an economy as his.

 

[Desk trauma]

personally I have to inclination to move to a platform with moderation/censorship.

They said on a heavily moderated/censored platform.

 

[civilwarbuff]

I'm not a fan of the Trump admin approach to wildly apply tariffs to nearly the whole world, I think a smarter approach based on reciprocity and fairness would be better.

Amen to that....

 

[civilwarbuff]

it helps when you got the US government by the throat.

In what manner?

 

[Reluctant Theologian]

I'd rather you didn't. What percentage of the wages are going to be saved versus the overall cost of the wages. Show me what you are basing your opinion on.

I don't know what percentage of the expected Fed Gov cuts will be wages - but in general all USA Fed Gov wages are less than 1% of the GDP. Yet I think (total) cuts of 1 trillion USD are not unrealistic - so about 3 billion USD a day. The DOGE counter already claims to be at 1 billion USD/day, and they've barely started.

The thing that may even out some GDP drop is tariffs as these are included in GDP as well - now this category seems to be also less than 1%, but this could increase substantially.

 

[Bradskii]

I don't know what percentage of the expected Fed Gov cuts will be wages - but in general all USA Fed Gov wages are less than 1% of the GDP.

So get rid of half the workers and you'll save 0.5%. You think that's a good deal?

 

[NxNW]

I didn't think the Trump recession would happen this quickly, but I also didn't think Trump would do this much damage in his first month and change of his second term.

This is what we call Exceeding Expectations.

 

[Reluctant Theologian]

So get rid of half the workers and you'll save 0.5%. You think that's a good deal?

Regardless of the savings in terms of GDP, if the work can be done with 50% of the workers - it still would be wise to downsize the Government. But I expect the majority of the savings not to be for wages, but external costs like outsourcing/contracting. The percentage of Fed positions to be removed will be much less than 50% I expect.

The savings-realised-to-date (DOGE figures) are 1 billion USD/day. And the far majority of that is non-wages.

Propping up GDP by hiring non-essential/unproductive workers would never be a good idea.

To be honest I prefer to talk about faith/Bible/meaning of life on this forum I wish you well ... you do live at a nice place in Australia apparently?

 

[Bradskii]

Regardless of the savings in terms of GDP, if the work can be done with 50% of the workers - it still would be wise to downsize the Government.

Be nice to find out who could be released first. Rather than this random scattergun nonsense that Musk is doing.

But I expect the majority of the savings not to be for wages, but external costs like outsourcing/contracting. The percentage of Fed positions to be removed will be much less than 50% I expect.

Again, it needs to be carefully considered.

To be honest I prefer to talk about faith/Bible/meaning of life on this forum

There are many sections people of the forum where you can do that. This are is generally for politics.

I wish you well ... you do live at a nice place in Australia apparently?

All the best to you as well. And yeah, Bondi. Which is why I do a double take whenever the AG is mentioned these days.

 

[FireDragon76]

Do they come with stickers?

View attachment 361916

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Elon was always graceless, crazy, and a liar. People have been saying this for almost a decade, of course, but it's started to trickle into the mainstream now that his profile has been elevated.