Predict the Results of the 2024 Presidential Election

[JosephZ]

Link to create map:

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map


A couple of links that show current polling information that may be helpful:


538

Real Clear Politics

 

[JosephZ]

My map.

 

[MotoToTheMax]

Both tied at 269 EC's each. House votes and Trump wins Presidency, Senate votes and Harris wins Vice Presidecy.

 

[Pommer]

Both tied at 269 EC's each. House votes and Trump wins Presidency, Senate votes and Harris wins Vice Presidecy.

Optimist!

 

[dogs4thewin]

My map.

View attachment 356577

any reason?

 

[RoBo1988]

Harris wins 25 states and 110 million ballots
Trump gets 80 million votes

 

[JosephZ]

any reason?

Recent polling trends in the battleground states, voter turnout, and how people have been voting so far.

 

[essentialsaltes]

WI, MI, PA go Harris ending at 270 - 268.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Harris wins 25 states and 110 million ballots
Trump gets 80 million votes

which 25 though

 

[MotoToTheMax]

Optimist!

If there was any election year for a 269-269 outcome, this one seems the most likely for one. Given how wild the past years have been, why not have a highly unusual outcome. Fits the theme.

 

[doubtingmerle]

Just to be clear, are you asking which one will be in the White House, or which one will be in jail?

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I think it's close enough that I won't be shocked regardless of what happens.

 

[probinson]

This isnt' my prediction. It's the "Polling No Tossup" map at 270toWin. It awards the state to whomever is leading in the polls at that time.

 

[actionsub]

I think it's close enough that I won't be shocked regardless of what happens.

Agreed. My take is "it's close enough that it ain't over till it's over." This next week is going to be a mighty bumpy ride.

 

[jayem]

Honestly, I'm tired of all the electioneering. And I'm especially fed up with these various polls that seem to fluctuate daily. Who knows the outcome? I'm reminded of the Doris Day song from the old Hitchcock movie, The Man Who Knew Too Much:

 

[durangodawood]

All I will predict is that We The People will prefer Harris.

 

[Sif]

One of the candidates will be the winner, and the rest will not.

 

[A2SG]

All I will predict is that We The People will prefer Harris.

That would fall in with every other election Trump's been involved with, where more Americans prefer his opponent.

-- A2SG, it almost seems like it doesn't matter who Trump runs against, doesn't it?

 

[MrMoe]

I'm still going by Allan Lichtman's prediction, since his 13 keys seem to be very accurate measures, but maybe this time he could be wrong.

 

[JosephZ]

There's been quite a swing away from Trump on PredictIt in the past week.

PredictIt trend in odds of winning:

10/26: Trump by 20

10/27: Trump by 19

10/28: Trump by 15

10/29: Trump by 15

10/30: Trump by 9

10/31: Trump by 6

11/1: Harris by 1