Harris holds 7-point lead over Trump in national survey

[The IbanezerScrooge]

Since polls seem to matter this election cycle...

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4898135-vice-president-harris-trump-lead/

Vice President Harris now holds a 7-point lead over former President Trump, according to a new national survey.​

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The survey, conducted by Reuters and Ipsos, found Harris leading with 46.61 percent support compared to Trump’s 40.48 percent, rounding to a 47-40 gap. That margin was slightly higher than the 5-point advantage over Trump the prior edition of the poll found Harris held.​

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When asked which candidate had the better approach on the “economy, unemployment and jobs,” Trump earned 43 percent, with Harris trailing at 41 percent.​

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His lead on that critical issue, however, shrunk by 1 point from August and 9 points from when Harris launched her campaign.​

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Trump led on the economy and jobs when President Biden was still in the race, but the new numbers show Harris is closing in on the gap since joining the top of the ticket.​

 

[Always in His Presence]

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

RCP average is 2 -

It all depends on which poll you want to quote.

 

[Always in His Presence]

For those with a short memory -

2016

 

[iluvatar5150]

rounding to a 47-40 gap.

 

[The IbanezerScrooge]

View attachment 355017

Yeah. Technically rounded should be 6 points. They rounded correctly, it's just that you usually do it after your calculation. So, let's split the difference and say she has a 6.5 point lead.... which we can then round up to 7.

 

[JSRG]

For those with a short memory -

2016

View attachment 355013

Not sure what's wrong with that? Clinton did beat Trump in the national vote.

If someone wants to complain that the percentages were "off" (in the final vote, Clinton got 48.2%, Trump 46.1%, and Johnson 3.28%) one should note the obvious fact that when you add the numbers together, you get 92.3%--meaning nearly 8% of that is people who were either undecided or not planning to vote for any of those three. If we ignore that 7.7% (which we do by dividing the percentages above by 0.923), we have:
Clinton: 49.5%
Trump: 45.3%
Johnson: 5.2%

Clinton and Trump's percentages in the actual election are pretty close--and I assume within the margin of error--of the polls. Johnson dropped off a more noticeable amount, but you normally tend to see third party candidates poll better than they actually end up on election day due to people making last-minute defections.

So I don't really see how this chart is supposed to show any issues?

 

[Always in His Presence]

So I don't really see how this chart is supposed to show any issues?

Clinton was ahead all the way through and still lost.

 

[JSRG]

Clinton was ahead all the way through and still lost.

She won the popular vote, which is what the chart was measuring.

Sure, she ended up losing the election, because the president isn't elected by popular vote. Which is perhaps why people shouldn't pay so much attention to popular vote polls and are better served looking at them on a state-by-state basis. But the fact of the matter remains that the national polls did a reasonable job reflecting the national vote.

 

[7thKeeper]

She won the popular vote, which is what the chart was measuring.

Sure, she ended up losing the election, because the president isn't elected by popular vote. Which is perhaps why people shouldn't pay so much attention to popular vote polls and are better served looking at them on a state-by-state basis. But the fact of the matter remains that the national polls did a reasonable job reflecting the national vote.

And iirc, she won the popular vote by around 2%. I don't remember how close to the polling that was, but wasn't too far off at least from what I remember.
I still personally think the electoral college is conceptually a silly thing though.

 

[DaisyDay]

Clinton was ahead all the way through and still lost.

That's true. Much of that might have been Comey's October surprise of announcing the FBI was reopening the email case two weeks before the election and then not closing it again until mere days before the election. All the while, he somehow neglected to mention that Trump was also under investigation.

What will this season's October surprise be?

 

[Always in His Presence]

What will this season's October surprise be?

That is an interesting question!

 

[DaisyDay]

That is an interesting question!

There's gotta be one, don't you think? Perhaps there will be two this time, one from each side!

 

[Always in His Presence]

There's gotta be one, don't you think? Perhaps there will be two this time, one from each side!

If there isn’t I would be amazed.