Western policies are pushing China, Russia, N Korea, and other nations into a corner. What do we think they will do if they feel threatened to the point of national demise? I think this is a bad policy. It would be best to give these nations and leaders a way to escape without escalating to a larger and more widespread war.
The greatest threat now is the use of Western weapons given to Ukraine and used against Russian targets. American and Nato weapons are killing and destroying Russians in Russian territory. Think about what we would do if Russian missiles were used to attack New York City or Washington.
Leaders like Kim Jong Un are not "all there" and may feel destined to destroy America. Of course, his nation would cease to exist after his first volley, but Honolulu or San Fran are still toast.
With Russia, Putin may see himself as a savior to his nation and commit nukes to the fray.
Maybe the leader of some Islamic nation will think god is on his side and calling him to destroy the great satan, thinking god will protect him from the resulting destruction of his nation.
The current administration and state department do not seem capable of dealing with our opponents across the ocean.
We are indeed in a perilous place in our history. We are a very powerful nation, but can we sustain wars on three or even four fronts? Given the state of our military leaders and potential conscripts, I have serious doubts. Women 18 - 26 will be subject to the draft. Many of the males of the same age range are completely incompatible with military discipline and war. Many people fear that we are heading for this war, and perhaps sooner than later. Perhaps this fall.
Western policies are not pushing these nations out. I would argue that Western policies created these monsters. Now the monsters are reverting back to their real roots and we should be surprised? The seeds were planted long ago but we ignored what we were watering. Now all of a sudden they are some seriously dangerous plant? The biggest destroyer is the thinking that institutions (Like the U.N.) and mutual trade could somehow take the edge of nations aspirations. Instead all that did was create a false security as Western enemies took advantage of their situations. Sure we ostracized N.Korea and Cuba and put a hurt on them, but the bigger markets like Russia and China were given almost free reign. Most bought the kool aid and gave China a boon in industrialization that seems unapparelled.
China is backed into a corner now because their game is over. Everyone knows what a few smart people recognized early on, they are not team players and they are basically doomed economically, drained and fluttering probably worse than the lost decade of Japan. China was in it for themselves and has greater power aspirations. State-led enterprising , Covid, negative human rights abuses and mercantilist policies have brought China down and neither they nor Russia are backing down, they are doubling down. Russia had a chance to be Western, Gorbachev was a decent leader but they too went back to their old ways and those include being expansionist as well. Now the two non-conformists have found love in their mutual hate and yes they are rabid and joining with the other belligerents such as Iran, and N. Korea.
For years we kicked cans down the road. McArthur versus Truman, Obama/Biden being soft on Iran, Clinton opening up normal trade relations to China, Bush and all the trade loving "mutually beneficial" crowd that were all duped. Because behind the scenes most of time these nations were working against the West, trying to buy time to find an opportunity to gain power and challenge the West from a much stronger position. So here we are. Stock market highs and our head in the sand worried about some of the most trivial stuff in the history of the West when the whole world is on fire.
The precursors to the tribulation are here. Nowhere in the bible is Israel saved by the USA or any other nation. Let that sink in. It is basically God's will that materialism has its last gasp. That the church too needs to repent and focus on what is important to God.
I will say one other thing. Putin has redefined the use of nuclear weapons in his mind. He recognizes that the West will suffer far more damage from a limited nuclear strike because the West is too weak to push the big button. Mutually assured destruction is not necessarily true. Tit for tat is far more likely with the Western world and I think we might be asked to dance very soon. Wll the USA defend Taiwan? Will the USA defend the Philippines? Will the USA even take on Iran if things get hot?
Some will say I am too negative. I pray that is true. Trump is not going to save us but at least he might deter more serious threats at the expense of partners like Ukraine and parts of Asia. However, if the tribulation does not start with Harris, and the USA continues on, she and most other democrats are perfect to take the blame. Otherwise most will just blame Trump and move the USA so left that the anti-Christ will for sure look great.
In re-reading your analysis we are not that far apart, except with the exceptions to your idea about Ukraine. God help us all.