70% Say Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s Economy Is Getting Worse

[Vambram]

Nolte: 70% Say Kamala Harris’s Economy Is Getting Worse

Seventy percent of adults say the economy under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is getting worse, according to polling.

www.breitbart.com

Seventy percent of adults say the economy under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is getting worse, according to polling from Gallup. Between July 1 and 21, 2024, Gallup surveyed 1,010 adults and found that only 24 percent believe the economy is getting better. At the beginning of 2024, in February, only 61 percent said the economy was getting worse, while 32 percent said the economy was getting better. Since then, those numbers have all slid in the wrong direction. “Economic Confidence Index registers -35 in July,” reports Gallup, which is “stable compared with the past two months and consistent with the longer trend of negative public sentiment about the current and future American economy."

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

Opinion from Breitbart. Ya, thanks, But what are the actual economic metrics?

How Is the Economy Doing Right Now? - NerdWallet

The state of the economy is generally strong and inflation is slowing down, but still remains elevated. The Federal Reserve is looking at key economic indicators to signal it’s time to cut rates.

www.nerdwallet.com

 

[Vambram]

Opinion from Breitbart. Ya, thanks, But what are the actual economic metrics?

How Is the Economy Doing Right Now? - NerdWallet

The state of the economy is generally strong and inflation is slowing down, but still remains elevated. The Federal Reserve is looking at key economic indicators to signal it’s time to cut rates.

www.nerdwallet.com

The Breitbart article quoted results from the Gallup polling agency. Is Gallup a right wing polling company? I think not.

 

[JosephZ]

Looking at the data, 60 to 70% of adults in the US are wrong about the economy getting worse.

 

[Vambram]

Looking at the data, 60 to 70% of adults in the US are wrong about the economy getting worse.

For those 60 to 70% of adults in the USA, the economy is getting worse for them.

 

[JosephZ]

For those 60 to 70% of adults in the USA, the economy is getting worse for them.

The polling question that was asked wasn't about them as individuals; it was about the country as a whole.

"Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?"

The 70% that answered "worse," were wrong.

 

[Vambram]

The 70% that answered "worse," were wrong.

Tell that to everyone who can barely, just barely by metaphorically hanging on by their fingernails, to pay their bills and falling more and more in credit card debt as they do so. By the way, voters are not going to vote about the economy based upon "metrics." They are going to do so based upon their own individual and family economics as to how that compares to 4 and 5 years ago.

 

[probinson]

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index summarizes Americans’ evaluations of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair or poor) and their outlook for the economy (whether they believe it is getting better or worse).​

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The index has a theoretical range of +100 (if all Americans rate current conditions as excellent or good and say the economy is getting better) to -100 (if all Americans rate the economy as poor and say it is getting worse). In Gallup’s trend of these measures since 1992, the highest ECI score was +56 in January 2000, and the lowest was -72 in October 2008.​

​

...​

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Forty-six percent of Americans describe the current U.S. economic conditions as “poor,” making it the dominant response for the 29th straight month.​

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Twenty-two percent of Americans describe current conditions as “excellent” or “good,” down three percentage points from June, while 32% say they are “only fair.”​

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...​

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Americans have also been consistently more negative than positive since May 2021 in their assessments of the economy’s trajectory.​

​

This month, seven in 10 Americans (70%) believe the economy is “getting worse,” while 24% say it is “getting better." This is slightly more negative than last month’s 26% “getting better” and 69% “getting worse” division of attitudes.​

​

Low U.S. Economic Confidence Steady

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is holding at -35 in July, with 13% naming inflation as the most important problem.

news.gallup.com

​

 

[iluvatar5150]

Tell that to everyone who can barely, just barely by metaphorically hanging on by their fingernails, to pay their bills and falling more and more in credit card debt as they do so.

In how many threads are you guys going to argue that same point, just to have us point out the obvious flaws in your argument? Millions of people existed in that state during the glorious Trump years, too. The existence of people in poor financial situations doesn’t mean the economy is getting worse.

 

[Vambram]

There are no flaws in the fact that 60-70% of Americans know that the economy is getting worse. The liberals appear to not understand that the big overall metrics don't matter to the vast majority of Americans.

 

[iluvatar5150]

There are no flaws in the fact that 60-70% of Americans know that the economy is getting worse. The liberals appear to not understand that the big overall metrics don't matter to the vast majority of Americans.

Do you really not see the flaws in your argument? They don’t “know” that the economy is getting worse. They may think it is, but the data is pretty clear that they don’t know it. Consumer sentiment is a separate metric from other fundamentals of the economy.

You’re right that the overall metrics don’t matter to many people, but that doesn’t make their opinions correct.

 

[Vambram]

There are not any flaws in the argument and the voters will show the liberals just how incorrect that they are when we have the elections in November.

 

[probinson]

Do you really not see the flaws in your argument? They don’t “know” that the economy is getting worse. They may think it is, but the data is pretty clear that they don’t know it.

You’re right that the overall metrics don’t matter to many people, but that doesn’t make their opinions correct.

Even if the economy is improving, the fact that 7 in 10 Americans think it's not is an interesting statistic (and quite damaging for the incumbent party). If things were noticeably better, then 70% of people wouldn't have a poor outlook. Since there is such a large percentage of people who have a poor outlook, it must not be all that great for them.

That's not a flawed argument. It's a simple fact. When people feel economic relief, or rather, when they feel the positive effects of the economic indicators touted in the media, then perceptions will improve.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Even if the economy is improving, the fact that 7 in 10 Americans think it's not is an interesting statistic (and quite damaging for the incumbent party). If things were noticeably better, then 70% of people wouldn't have a poor outlook. Since there is such a large percentage of people who have a poor outlook, it must not be all that great for them.

That's not a flawed argument. It's a simple fact. When people feel economic relief, or rather, when they feel the positive effects of the economic indicators touted in the media, then perceptions will improve.

Sentiment is an important thing to consider, but it’s separate from actual economic performance and it’s rather easy to manipulate.

Think about perceptions of crime: lots of people think crime is out of control, but aside from a bit of an uptick during the pandemic (that’s mostly corrected itself afaik), crime rates have been falling for 40 years. Why do people think that things are bad? Because they see a couple of problem areas get amplified by a media that’s incentivized to exaggerate those problems, and then incorrectly extrapolate those problems to the rest of society. After all, if the area around Oakland Airport is having a crime spike, then the entire country must be experiencing a spike, right?

Since there is such a large percentage of people who have a poor outlook, it must not be all that great for them.

That’s not correct. People are easily influenced by things they see and things they hear about. Worry about the future doesn’t mean things are bad right now; it means people aren’t confident in the future.

 

[Pommer]

Nolte: 70% Say Kamala Harris’s Economy Is Getting Worse

Seventy percent of adults say the economy under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is getting worse, according to polling.

www.breitbart.com

Seventy percent of adults say the economy under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is getting worse, according to polling from Gallup. Between July 1 and 21, 2024, Gallup surveyed 1,010 adults and found that only 24 percent believe the economy is getting better. At the beginning of 2024, in February, only 61 percent said the economy was getting worse, while 32 percent said the economy was getting better. Since then, those numbers have all slid in the wrong direction. “Economic Confidence Index registers -35 in July,” reports Gallup, which is “stable compared with the past two months and consistent with the longer trend of negative public sentiment about the current and future American economy."

I heard GDP was a healthy 2.8% last quarter, tell us again why that’s “bad”.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

There are no flaws in the fact that 60-70% of Americans know that the economy is getting worse. The liberals appear to not understand that the big overall metrics don't matter to the vast majority of Americans.

What they perceive or believe about the economy and how the economy is actually performing are at odds.

There may be several reasons for this, e.g. economic lag - the benefits of a strengthening economy take time to impact the majority, those benefits are likely to be unevenly distributed, and the wealthier minority generally get a larger proportion, reducing the benefit to the majority. Common cognitive biases can play a role, such as rosy retrospection and declinism. Misleading messaging can also play a role - repeated counterfactual or cherry-picked messaging about the state of the economy is likely to influence people's perception of it.

There are probably also other reasons that don't come to mind right now...

 

[Larniavc]

The polling question that was asked wasn't about them as individuals; it was about the country as a whole.

"Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?"

The 70% that answered "worse," were wrong.

People always think it worse for other people for some reason in conservative countries. It’s a side effect of screw you I got mine I reckon.

 

[trophy33]

I heard GDP was a healthy 2.8% last quarter, tell us again why that’s “bad”.

I did not study this specific number in that specific quarter, but one can imagine various scenarios in which GDP grows, but the economy can do worse.

For example huge social/health services expenditures. War. Wrong kind of government investments. Too much debt. Unjust distribution of wealth. Worse social mobility. A need to work more to keep the same standard of living. Hidden inflation. Environmental pollution (hidden costs), hidden unemployment. Etc.

Also, when the numbers are a bit magical, for example when the way how inflation or employment or GDP is calculated is constantly changing. Or when the optimistic numbers are revised down after some time, but people do not check it again.

If the real inflation is higher than the current official one (which is what most Americans seem to be feeling), for example by just 3%, then the real GDP can be actually below zero - a recession one.

 

[Servus]

Nolte: 70% Say Kamala Harris’s Economy Is Getting Worse

Seventy percent of adults say the economy under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is getting worse, according to polling.

www.breitbart.com

Seventy percent of adults say the economy under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is getting worse, according to polling from Gallup. Between July 1 and 21, 2024, Gallup surveyed 1,010 adults and found that only 24 percent believe the economy is getting better. At the beginning of 2024, in February, only 61 percent said the economy was getting worse, while 32 percent said the economy was getting better. Since then, those numbers have all slid in the wrong direction. “Economic Confidence Index registers -35 in July,” reports Gallup, which is “stable compared with the past two months and consistent with the longer trend of negative public sentiment about the current and future American economy."

No way. This says the economy is doing great!

 

[KCfromNC]

Do you really not see the flaws in your argument? They don’t “know” that the economy is getting worse. They may think it is

What's the difference if it leads to the conclusion one wishes were true?