Powerful near term effect with a greenhouse gas

[Halbhh]

Some have heard that methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas, but we know there is much less of it in the atmosphere than CO2, so it's not been the main greenhouse gas for that reason.

But what methane does get into the atmosphere has a strong effect relative to its amount:

(After the excerpt below I'll give a simplified nutshell version.)

"Methane in the Earth's atmosphere is a strong greenhouse gas with a global warming potential (GWP) 104 times greater than CO2 in a 20-year time frame; methane is not as persistent a gas as CO2 (assuming no change in carbon sequestration rates) and tails off to about GWP of 28 for a 100-year time frame."

nutshell: it gradually gets broken down, but in the first 20 years after release, methane in the atmosphere is about 100 times stronger pound for pound for warming vs CO2.

So, therefore, near term effects (the first few decades after release of methane) are quite strong.

Here's a big release (close up video begins about 45 seconds into video):

The release until this one well got controlled was larger than for a full year of releases from France, for comparison.

Is that enough to matter? It is when added to other releases from all the other fracking wells, together in total. The sum of all of those leaks in total from all the various wells.

Fracking of oil/gas wells began in 2007, and then accelerated. More methane got released. For quite a while it was mysterious why methane was increasing (though now, today, it's looking more like we can see the reason).

What is Behind Rising Levels of Methane in the Atmosphere?


But our current administration just used a principle of less regulation, as the best course:

August, 2019:
The Trump Administration announced Thursday the rollback of an important environmental regulation on methane emissions that even some of the world’s biggest oil-and-gas companies support. ...
Why President Trump Cut a Methane Regulation That Even Big Oil Companies Wanted to Keep


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Let me offer some commentary.

It seems reasonable to expect the warming to happen sooner and stronger than generally reported in the conservative estimates people are accustomed to reading about.

I don't even think of Trump as the cause, but rather he's only the....outcome of humanity blindly going forward in ignorance. It's kind of an inevitable tragedy. In classic thought, this kind of thing is called the "Tragedy of the Commons", where in a free market capitalism, which is a good system in many ways, when there is less regulation, then one devastating effect is that the commons -- air, water, land, resources -- get degraded in ways that harm us and our children.

So, on the one hand people tend to think: less regulation, more money: good.

But in the reality, the actual real world, what often happens is: less regulation of air, water, land pollution = earlier deaths of more and more victims. Whether by cancer or by flood, etc.

 

[The.Cartographer]

Global warming is just another religion.

 

[Paulos23]

Global warming is just another religion.

If you want to ignore the evidence, I can see how you think that.

 

[The.Cartographer]

If you want to ignore the evidence, I can see how you think that.

Gods got it all worked out. Don't worry about it. The earth is going to be just fine; we just have to find a way to keep people from poisoning one another.

 

[Paulos23]

Gods got it all worked out. Don't worry about it. The earth is going to be just fine; we just have to find a way to keep people from poisoning one another.

Don't see any evidence of that.

For that matter, isn't there a command to take care of the planet in the Bible? Clearly, it is on us, not God.

 

[Halbhh]

Gods got it all worked out. Don't worry about it. The earth is going to be just fine; we just have to find a way to keep people from poisoning one another.

In the scripture the old earth we know will be devastated, before the "new earth". I believe what scripture says. But that does leave interesting question about how and when.

 

[d taylor]

So the scientist who have created the means that they say the people are using to create, Not a Globe warming, are now saying they can save people from their created means that is causing, Not a Globe warming,

 

[Halbhh]

So the scientist who have created the means that they say the people are using to create, Not a Globe warming, are now saying they can save people from their created means that is causing, Not a Globe warming,

Sorry, I couldn't understand just what you meant. If you paraphrase I'll try again.

 

[Carl Emerson]

Here is a sane comment from a prominent astrophysicist.

"Global warming is good for you..."

Duncan Steel: Global warming is good for you


And for those really wanting to understand the deeper scientific aspects...

Duncan Steel: Climate Change And Natural Variations In The Solar Influx - The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

Duncan Steel considers a much broader range of variables such as earth's axis, spin and tilt along with solar flux and suggests that these effects are having a more significant effect on changing climate than rising CO2.

 

[Halbhh]

Here is a sane comment from a prominent astrophysicist.

"Global warming is good for you..."

Duncan Steel: Global warming is good for you


And for those really wanting to understand the deeper scientific aspects...

Duncan Steel: Climate Change And Natural Variations In The Solar Influx - The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

Duncan Steel considers a much broader range of variables such as earth's axis, spin and tilt along with solar flux and suggests that these effects are having a more significant effect on changing climate than rising CO2.

That was fun, but it's not a gradual, slow change over 100 years most would be concerned about, so much as the more serious kinds of sooner events that aren't too hard to consider. Miami might have a lot less than 100 years left see, because another inch or two (or less) of average water height plus a couple of strong end cat 4 or 5 hurricanes would make that more gradual process moot. But to me what is more concerning is instead things like massive crop failures leading to mass starvations in some areas of the world leading to global war. See? So, it's not really so much that slow change, but the much sooner stuff, that one might more wonder about. There are some dangerous sounding and plausible things like: melting permafrost leads to a methane or CO2 spike that is large enough to bring everything forward suddenly much sooner, so that is then 'rapid' instead of 'slow', or the problem with tropical diseases suddenly moving north much faster than imagined, and then epidemics, etc. Now, I point these out sort of like I would a wild fire danger in California: you don't have to panic and flee the state. You can just live there and know everyday is a risk, to begin with, and we all are mortal, and it's only a matter of time anyway, be it next year, or 35 years, for any individual. So, I'm kinda saying: it's far worse than many think, but there is Good News, and we don't need to worry. We are going to die, and then live.

 

[Carl Emerson]

That was fun, but it's not a gradual, slow change over 100 years most would be concerned about, so much as the more serious kinds of sooner events that aren't too hard to consider. Miami might have a lot less than 100 years left see, because another inch or two (or less) of average water height plus a couple of strong end cat 4 or 5 hurricanes would make that more gradual process moot. But to me what is more concerning is instead things like massive crop failures leading to mass starvations in some areas of the world leading to global war. See? So, it's not really so much that slow change, but the much sooner stuff, that one might more wonder about. There are some dangerous sounding and plausible things like: melting permafrost leads to a methane or CO2 spike that is large enough to bring everything forward suddenly much sooner, so that is then 'rapid' instead of 'slow', or the problem with tropical diseases suddenly moving north much faster than imagined, and then epidemics, etc. Now, I point these out sort of like I would a wild fire danger in California: you don't have to panic and flee the state. You can just live there and know everyday is a risk, to begin with, and we all are mortal, and it's only a matter of time anyway, be it next year, or 35 years, for any individual.

Duncan is quite approachable and I am in contact by email. If you consolidate your question I would put it to him and he can either give an informed answer or suggest who to ask.

 

[Halbhh]

Global warming is just another religion.

Can be.

I've already got a religion tho.

 

[Halbhh]

Duncan is quite approachable and I am in contact by email. If you consolidate your question I would put it to him and he can either give an informed answer or suggest who to ask.

Why would I ask an astrophysicist (I love astrophysics by the way) much about other possibilities in climate change? Unless he's left astrophysics behind and become a climate scientist. (if so, then that would be interesting) In other words, it's reasonable to expect he's told us what he can. Already. Not that he couldn't learn some new things and then convey more, in time. Has he written more on climate with other aspects not about solar cycles?

 

[The.Cartographer]

In the scripture the old earth we know will be devastated, before the "new earth". I believe what scripture says. But that does leave interesting question about how and when.

Where does that say that in the bible?
That's awfully scary if people think that this world needs to be devastated before the "new earth" arises. I'm worried that there are those who'll try and speed up the process.

 

[Halbhh]

Where does that say that in the bible?
That's awfully scary if people think that this world needs to be devastated before the "new earth" arises. I'm worried that there are those who'll try and speed up the process.

The book Revelation. (also, I've been hearing alike accounts recently in some of the prophets, like Isaiah, but it's enough to point to Revelation, which expands greatly on some thing Christ said in the 4 gospel accounts) While Revelation has a lot of metaphor and clearly much that is literal, it's echoed in various ways throughout the New Testament, and this helps us get it that these are not all allegory, but that some will be real events/literal stuff, too. Both.

 

[Carl Emerson]

Why would I ask an astrophysicist (I love astrophysics by the way) much about other possibilities in climate change? Unless he's left astrophysics behind and become a climate scientist. (if so, then that would be interesting) In other words, it's reasonable to expect he's told us what he can. Already. Not that he couldn't learn some new things and then convey more, in time. Has he written more on climate with other aspects not about solar cycles?

That is precisely why I mentioned he could recommend someone scientifically sane and closer to the issue.

 

[Halbhh]

That is precisely why I mentioned he could recommend someone scientifically sane and closer to the issue.

I simply read extensively actual research reports from the scientists doing the research. Nothing from opinion pieces. A recommendation would be very much less information. And also suspect really. I don't want one view. But all real information from all sources.

Here's a good site. Real science reports.

Earth Sciences News - Earth Science News, Space Earth Science, Space News, Science

 

[d taylor]

In the scripture the old earth we know will be devastated, before the "new earth". I believe what scripture says. But that does leave interesting question about how and when.

Actually the current earth will go through a hard time, but will not be destroyed and will be restored from ruin for the 1000 year millennium. And actually there will be people living then, that will go into the 1000 years to repopulated the earth.

After the 1000 years is when the current earth will see its demise, to make way for the new earth and heavens

 

[Halbhh]

Post moved to a conversation....

 

[d taylor]

Deleted and moved!