FOX/AP/Edison Polls takeaway from the midterms

[The Barbarian]

1. President Trump cost Republicans the House. Trump will say he rescued his party. Ignore him. The GOP won handily among people who said Trump wasn’t a factor in their votes. What gave Democrats their majority was a victory margin of 15 to 20 percentage points among people who cited Trump as a factor.

Most voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance and said they viewed him unfavorably. The hardcore anti-Trump vote—those who strongly disapproved of the president’s performance and viewed him very negatively—was around 45 percent. Two of every 8 people said they were voting to support Trump, but 3 of 8 said they were voting to oppose him. The evidence that he hurt his party is decisive.

Voters disapproved of Trump’s performance on immigration, trade, Supreme Court nominations—virtually every issue but the economy. They said he wasn’t honest or trustworthy (by a 26-point margin), didn’t care about people like them (by 17 points), and didn’t have the right temperament to be president (by 29 points). Most voters said Trump’s administration was less ethical than previous administrations; only a quarter said his administration was more ethical. Even on his supposed strengths, he was found wanting. Voters were evenly split on his performance on border security. Most said he wasn’t a strong leader. More said he had made the country less safe from crime (35 percent) than said he had made it safer (27 percent).

2. Brett Kavanaugh hurt Republicans. Remember all that Republican clucking about the “Kavanaugh bump”? Turns out it was just a “Trump-absent-from-the-news” bump. In the network exit poll, voters said by a slight margin, 47 percent to 43 percent, that they opposed Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court. Those who supported Kavanaugh voted overwhelmingly for Republicans, but those who opposed Kavanaugh voted even more overwhelmingly for Democrats. In the AP/Fox poll, Republicans won among the 25 percent of people who said the Kavanaugh debate wasn’t important to their vote. But among people who said Kavanaugh was somewhat important, Republicans lost narrowly. And among voters who said Kavanaugh was very important—nearly half the electorate—the GOP lost by 13 percentage points.


3. #MeToo didn’t help Democrats much. Many Democrats thought the uprising against sexual abuse and harassment would help them. In reality, it seems to have cut both ways. In the AP/Fox survey, 78 percent of voters said they were concerned about women not being believed in sexual misconduct cases. Forty-three percent said they were very concerned. But these numbers were almost matched by the 74 percent who said they were concerned—and the 38 percent who said they were very concerned—about accused men not getting a chance to defend themselves. Voters concerned about women leaned Democratic, but voters concerned about men leaned Republican. In the network survey, Democrats won big among the 46 percent of voters who said sexual harassment was a very serious problem. But among the 38 percent who said harassment was only a somewhat serious problem, Republicans narrowly prevailed, 50 percent to 48 percent.

One other data point is worth noting: In the AP/Fox survey, 66 percent of voters said that pressure to be “politically correct” has gone too far. It’s not clear what these voters meant, but 66 percent is a higher number than either of the surveys found in support of any conservative policy. Democrats need to figure out what’s triggering this resentment.

4. The gun issue hurt Republicans. Gun owners notoriously vote on this issue, and their opponents notoriously don’t. But this year’s data seem to favor Democrats. In the network poll, 59 percent of voters supported stricter gun control; only 37 percent opposed it. When people were asked which of four issues was most important to their vote, 10 percent named gun policy, and Democrats won these voters, 70 percent to 29 percent. In the AP/Fox poll, 61 percent of voters said gun laws should be stricter (only 8 percent said gun laws should be less strict), and Democrats won these voters 69 percent to 25 percent. People who cited abortion as their top issue overwhelmingly voted Republican, but people who cited guns as their top issue overwhelmingly voted Democratic.

5. Violence hurt Republicans, but not much. Anti-Semitic, anti-black, and anti-immigration hate crimes preceded the election, and Trump dealt with them poorly. But Republicans countered by focusing on Democratic “mobs,” and that response seems to have limited the political damage to the GOP. In the AP/Fox survey, most voters said that Republicans tend to talk about politics in ways that lead to violence, and most voters said that Democrats don’t tend to talk that way. But the difference was surprisingly small. In the network survey, Republicans lost big among the 23 percent of voters who said “recent extremist violence” was the top factor in their vote. But half the electorate said the recent violence was only one important factor, and Republicans came close to splitting that bloc.

6. Russia fizzled. In the AP/Fox poll, voters were closely divided on whether Trump’s campaign coordinated with the Russian government in 2016. Forty-eight percent said yes; 50 percent said no. But Republicans seem to have persuaded many people to distrust special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. In the network poll, a narrow plurality, 46 percent to 41 percent, disapproved of the way Mueller has handled the investigation. When voters asked whether the investigation was justified or politically motivated, most said it was politically motivated. By a margin of 56 percent to 39 percent, voters said Congress shouldn’t impeach Trump. For all we know, Mueller will release more bombshells after the election. But what he made public beforehand wasn’t enough to tilt the outcome.

7. Voters don’t share Trump’s hard line on immigration. Trump will claim that GOP victories in key states, following his campaign against the migrant caravan, signal popular support for his policies. Conversely, some people on the left will see these Republican victories as an outburst of bigotry. But the numbers don’t support these conclusions. In the network poll, 46 percent of voters said Trump’s immigration policies were too tough; only 17 percent said they weren’t tough enough. In the AP/Fox poll, a narrow majority, 52 percent to 47 percent, opposed a border wall. When voters were asked whether immigrants living in the United States illegally should be deported or offered a chance to apply for legal status, 69 percent chose legal status. And while 39 percent of voters said that immigrants hurt the country more than they help it, 59 percent said the opposite: that immigrants help more than they hurt.
Exit Polls Show the GOP May Be Digging Itself Into an Ideological Hole

In general, good news for America, after all.

 

[The Barbarian]

It's always a little disconcerting to see that nearly half of Americans think their president needs to be impeached.

 

[disciple Clint]

1. President Trump cost Republicans the House. Trump will say he rescued his party. Ignore him. The GOP won handily among people who said Trump wasn’t a factor in their votes. What gave Democrats their majority was a victory margin of 15 to 20 percentage points among people who cited Trump as a factor.

Most voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance and said they viewed him unfavorably. The hardcore anti-Trump vote—those who strongly disapproved of the president’s performance and viewed him very negatively—was around 45 percent. Two of every 8 people said they were voting to support Trump, but 3 of 8 said they were voting to oppose him. The evidence that he hurt his party is decisive.

Voters disapproved of Trump’s performance on immigration, trade, Supreme Court nominations—virtually every issue but the economy. They said he wasn’t honest or trustworthy (by a 26-point margin), didn’t care about people like them (by 17 points), and didn’t have the right temperament to be president (by 29 points). Most voters said Trump’s administration was less ethical than previous administrations; only a quarter said his administration was more ethical. Even on his supposed strengths, he was found wanting. Voters were evenly split on his performance on border security. Most said he wasn’t a strong leader. More said he had made the country less safe from crime (35 percent) than said he had made it safer (27 percent).

2. Brett Kavanaugh hurt Republicans. Remember all that Republican clucking about the “Kavanaugh bump”? Turns out it was just a “Trump-absent-from-the-news” bump. In the network exit poll, voters said by a slight margin, 47 percent to 43 percent, that they opposed Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court. Those who supported Kavanaugh voted overwhelmingly for Republicans, but those who opposed Kavanaugh voted even more overwhelmingly for Democrats. In the AP/Fox poll, Republicans won among the 25 percent of people who said the Kavanaugh debate wasn’t important to their vote. But among people who said Kavanaugh was somewhat important, Republicans lost narrowly. And among voters who said Kavanaugh was very important—nearly half the electorate—the GOP lost by 13 percentage points.


3. #MeToo didn’t help Democrats much. Many Democrats thought the uprising against sexual abuse and harassment would help them. In reality, it seems to have cut both ways. In the AP/Fox survey, 78 percent of voters said they were concerned about women not being believed in sexual misconduct cases. Forty-three percent said they were very concerned. But these numbers were almost matched by the 74 percent who said they were concerned—and the 38 percent who said they were very concerned—about accused men not getting a chance to defend themselves. Voters concerned about women leaned Democratic, but voters concerned about men leaned Republican. In the network survey, Democrats won big among the 46 percent of voters who said sexual harassment was a very serious problem. But among the 38 percent who said harassment was only a somewhat serious problem, Republicans narrowly prevailed, 50 percent to 48 percent.

One other data point is worth noting: In the AP/Fox survey, 66 percent of voters said that pressure to be “politically correct” has gone too far. It’s not clear what these voters meant, but 66 percent is a higher number than either of the surveys found in support of any conservative policy. Democrats need to figure out what’s triggering this resentment.

4. The gun issue hurt Republicans. Gun owners notoriously vote on this issue, and their opponents notoriously don’t. But this year’s data seem to favor Democrats. In the network poll, 59 percent of voters supported stricter gun control; only 37 percent opposed it. When people were asked which of four issues was most important to their vote, 10 percent named gun policy, and Democrats won these voters, 70 percent to 29 percent. In the AP/Fox poll, 61 percent of voters said gun laws should be stricter (only 8 percent said gun laws should be less strict), and Democrats won these voters 69 percent to 25 percent. People who cited abortion as their top issue overwhelmingly voted Republican, but people who cited guns as their top issue overwhelmingly voted Democratic.

5. Violence hurt Republicans, but not much. Anti-Semitic, anti-black, and anti-immigration hate crimes preceded the election, and Trump dealt with them poorly. But Republicans countered by focusing on Democratic “mobs,” and that response seems to have limited the political damage to the GOP. In the AP/Fox survey, most voters said that Republicans tend to talk about politics in ways that lead to violence, and most voters said that Democrats don’t tend to talk that way. But the difference was surprisingly small. In the network survey, Republicans lost big among the 23 percent of voters who said “recent extremist violence” was the top factor in their vote. But half the electorate said the recent violence was only one important factor, and Republicans came close to splitting that bloc.

6. Russia fizzled. In the AP/Fox poll, voters were closely divided on whether Trump’s campaign coordinated with the Russian government in 2016. Forty-eight percent said yes; 50 percent said no. But Republicans seem to have persuaded many people to distrust special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. In the network poll, a narrow plurality, 46 percent to 41 percent, disapproved of the way Mueller has handled the investigation. When voters asked whether the investigation was justified or politically motivated, most said it was politically motivated. By a margin of 56 percent to 39 percent, voters said Congress shouldn’t impeach Trump. For all we know, Mueller will release more bombshells after the election. But what he made public beforehand wasn’t enough to tilt the outcome.

7. Voters don’t share Trump’s hard line on immigration. Trump will claim that GOP victories in key states, following his campaign against the migrant caravan, signal popular support for his policies. Conversely, some people on the left will see these Republican victories as an outburst of bigotry. But the numbers don’t support these conclusions. In the network poll, 46 percent of voters said Trump’s immigration policies were too tough; only 17 percent said they weren’t tough enough. In the AP/Fox poll, a narrow majority, 52 percent to 47 percent, opposed a border wall. When voters were asked whether immigrants living in the United States illegally should be deported or offered a chance to apply for legal status, 69 percent chose legal status. And while 39 percent of voters said that immigrants hurt the country more than they help it, 59 percent said the opposite: that immigrants help more than they hurt.
Exit Polls Show the GOP May Be Digging Itself Into an Ideological Hole

In general, good news for America, after all.

Trump deserves the blame for all of the following things.

• Almost 4 million jobs created since election.
• More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
• We have created more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs since my election.
• Manufacturing jobs growing at the fastest rate in more than THREE DECADES.
• Economic growth last quarter hit 4.2 percent.
• New unemployment claims recently hit a 49-year low.
• Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
• African-American unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
• Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded.
• Asian-American unemployment recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
• Women’s unemployment recently reached the lowest rate in 65 years.
• Youth unemployment has recently hit the lowest rate in nearly half a century.
• Lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for Americans without a high school diploma.
• Under my Administration, veterans’ unemployment recently reached its lowest rate in nearly 20 years.
• Almost 3.9 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps since the election.
• The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans. We are committed to VOCATIONAL education.
• 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future—the highest ever.
• Retail sales surged last month, up another 6 percent over last year.
• Signed the biggest package of tax cuts and reforms in history. After tax cuts, over $300 billion poured back in to the U.S. in the first quarter alone.
• As a result of our tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
• Helped win U.S. bid for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
• Helped win U.S.-Mexico-Canada’s united bid for 2026 World Cup.
• Opened ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines.
• Record number of regulations eliminated.
• Enacted regulatory relief for community banks and credit unions.
• Obamacare individual mandate penalty GONE.
• My Administration is providing more affordable healthcare options for Americans through association health plans and short-term duration plans.
• Last month, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history. And thanks to our efforts, many drug companies are freezing or reversing planned price increases.
• We reformed the Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors hundreds of millions of dollars this year alone.
• Signed Right-To-Try legislation.
• Secured $6 billion in NEW funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
• We have reduced high-dose opioid prescriptions by 16 percent during my first year in office.
• Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.

 

[The Barbarian]

Trump deserves the blame for all of the following things.

That was the point of the survey. If Trump had pointed to continued economic growth (we have a nearly 10 year expansion right now), it would have been a good thing for the republicans. Read it again:

Voters disapproved of Trump’s performance on immigration, trade, Supreme Court nominations—virtually every issue but the economy. They said he wasn’t honest or trustworthy (by a 26-point margin), didn’t care about people like them (by 17 points), and didn’t have the right temperament to be president (by 29 points). Most voters said Trump’s administration was less ethical than previous administrations; only a quarter said his administration was more ethical. Even on his supposed strengths, he was found wanting. Voters were evenly split on his performance on border security. Most said he wasn’t a strong leader. More said he had made the country less safe from crime (35 percent) than said he had made it safer (27 percent).

He botched the elections for the republicans by ignoring the one positive thing on his watch and reminded Americans why they don't like him very much.

 

[disciple Clint]

That was the point of the survey. If Trump had pointed to continued economic growth (we have a nearly 10 year expansion right now), it would have been a good thing for the republicans. Read it again:

Voters disapproved of Trump’s performance on immigration, trade, Supreme Court nominations—virtually every issue but the economy. They said he wasn’t honest or trustworthy (by a 26-point margin), didn’t care about people like them (by 17 points), and didn’t have the right temperament to be president (by 29 points). Most voters said Trump’s administration was less ethical than previous administrations; only a quarter said his administration was more ethical. Even on his supposed strengths, he was found wanting. Voters were evenly split on his performance on border security. Most said he wasn’t a strong leader. More said he had made the country less safe from crime (35 percent) than said he had made it safer (27 percent).

He botched the elections for the republicans by ignoring the one positive thing on his watch and reminded Americans why they don't like him very much.

how many of the people that he went to bat for won their election? would you consider that Botched?

 

[The Barbarian]

how many of the people that he went to bat for won their election?

About 44 fewer than than last time. Republicans were stomped in the House and in governorships. They might end up losing 40 House seats and they lost at least 7 governorships. Trump repeatedly told Americans that they must all vote republican. And Americans refused to to do so.

In the Senate races alone, democrats got 12 million more votes than republicans.
But because even tiny, sparsely populated states get two seats, republicans picked up 4 senate seats.

would you consider that Botched?

Yep. If Trump had merely pointed out that economic growth continued on his watch, republicans would have done much better. But he instead came out with racist bilge so bad, even FOX wouldn't air some of it.

And that cost the republicans the House and at least 7 governorships. Which is critical, because reapportionment will follow the census, and that will damage republican Gerrymandering, without which they would become a perpetual minor party.

Some of that was already falling apart. Pennsylvania, for example, had their own supreme court knock down attempts to rig the elections, and it cost the republicans some seats. More of that is on the way.