If the Kavanaugh accusations are true...

[Allandavid]

Kavanaugh wants to testify. Judge doesn't. Ford apparently hasn't decided...

But none of those three make the final decision here...Grassley and his henchmen do. Why would they not want all the people who were allegedly present to provide evidence...?

I don't know. I don't think you do either. At most we can make educated guesses based on our personal judgement...

Yes I do...and it’s not hard to find. Many research reports are available and the majority of them report that between 2 and 5% of sexual assault allegations are false. In other words, when a woman summons up the courage to make the charges that Dr Ford has made, the chance she is telling the truth is 95% or better...

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

But none of those three make the final decision here...Grassley and his henchmen do. Why would they not want all the people who were allegedly present to provide evidence...?

If Judge denies being present there wouldn't be much to ask - "I have no idea what she's talking about" would just about answer anything and as long as Ford refuses to testify its a moot point anyway.

Yes I do...and it’s not hard to find. Many research reports are available and the majority of them report that between 2 and 5% of sexual assault allegations are false. In other words, when a woman summons up the courage to make the charges that Dr Ford has made, the chance she is telling the truth is 95% or better...

I suspect their standard of truth and falsehood is quite different from what the legal system uses, (perhaps in 2-5% of allegations the accuser later admitted to making it up?) and again they don't know. We have a system of due process precisely because the those research reports can't determine the truth or falsehood of those allegations. Actually, the conviction rate in sexual assault cases is very low, not really because of any problem with the legal system, but because it's a difficult crime to prove. How much more so when you're talking about a crime of attempt 36 years after the fact with the uncorroborated testimony of one witness! From any objective standard, investigating the matter is a wild goose chase. It just comes down to who you believe, and that's a matter of personal judgement.

 

[Newtheran]

I've head some pretty disturbing defenses, both on the news and around here re: Kavanaugh. Not so much "She's lying"; I expected that. It's the "It doesn't matter" defenses that concern me. "Boys will be boys," "just a kid," "Nothing actually happened," "just a little groping..."

I'm curious about which way the wind is blowing on this one.

Thoughts?

Giving the 1. suspicious timing of this, 2. the fact that other classmates have denied her story, 3. her pre-existing political leanings and financial ties to makers of the abortion drug 4. the fact that her social media profiles were scrubbed prior to this being announced it's highly likely that she's lying about this.

That having been said - and I believe that rape is a serious crime that should be a capital offense if you're serious about protecting women - It's hard to claim that even Ford's account of what happened rises to that standard as some democrat politicians have claimed.

This is a political hit in an attempt to keep abortion legal, nothing more and nothing less.

 

[NotreDame]

How likely is it that she is lying? Are you familiar with the stats on women who bring these claims? Forget about the estimated 70% who are too frightened to come forward at all....what percentage of accusers are subsequently found to be wrong...?

She could be telling the truth, a point I’ve made more than once at this forum. She could be lying.

 

[NotreDame]

Yes I do...and it’s not hard to find. Many research reports are available and the majority of them report that between 2 and 5% of sexual assault allegations are false. In other words, when a woman summons up the courage to make the charges that Dr Ford has made, the chance she is telling the truth is 95% or better...

No, you’ve committed a very common fallacy when it comes to statistics. The statistics do not logically give us any percentage that Ms. Ford is being truthful, statistics do not rationally work that way. Statistics instead allow us to say that for every, say, for every 100 people alleging sexual assault allegations, 2 to 5 of them will be false, but that doesn’t tell us which specific person or allegation is false.

So, the statistics do not logically tell us there’s a 95 percent Ms. Ford is telling the truth.

Second, how did those studies determine when someone was making a false allegation? Conversely, how did the study determine when the victim was telling the truth?

Even when a victim is saying
the allegation is false doesn’t show the allegation is false.

 

[TLK Valentine]

She could be telling the truth, a point I’ve made more than once at this forum. She could be lying.

Absolutely -- and there are already plenty of threads debating whether or not she's telling the truth.

For the purposes of this thread, I wanted to start with the premise that she is telling the truth. I've heard far too many responses of the "so what if she is?" variety.

What are your thoughts on it?

 

[Allandavid]

No, you’ve committed a very common fallacy when it comes to statistics. The statistics do not logically give us any percentage that Ms. Ford is being truthful, statistics do not rationally work that way. Statistics instead allow us to say that for every, say, for every 100 people alleging sexual assault allegations, 2 to 5 of them will be false, but that doesn’t tell us which specific person or allegation is false.

So, the statistics do not logically tell us there’s a 95 percent Ms. Ford is telling the truth.

Second, how did those studies determine when someone was making a false allegation? Conversely, how did the study determine when the victim was telling the truth?

Even when a victim is saying
the allegation is false doesn’t show the allegation is false.

No, you are wrong. If I quote a study that finds that 95% of women have brown hair and it is accurate, then a woman chosen at random has a 95% chance of being brown-haired.

Pretty basic....

 

[Allandavid]

Absolutely -- and there are already plenty of threads debating whether or not she's telling the truth.

For the purposes of this thread, I wanted to start with the premise that she is telling the truth. I've heard far too many responses of the "so what if she is?" variety.

What are your thoughts on it?

Judging by the revelations today, Dr Ford certainly doesn’t appear to be alone in her claims...

 

[jazzflower92]

Judging by the revelations today, Dr Ford certainly doesn’t appear to be alone in her claims...

The second one has more credibility, but the third one is being claimed by that sleazy defense lawyer by Stormy Daniels.

 

[Allandavid]

The second one has more credibility, but the third one is being claimed by that sleazy defense lawyer by Stormy Daniels.

Shootin’ the messenger a little...?

 

[jazzflower92]

Shootin’ the messenger a little...?

You do know why people don't trust Beibart. And this guy is the same same type.

 

[Allandavid]

You do know why people don't trust Beibart. And this guy is the same same type.

Really...? Seems like he’s been the only person who could lay a glove on Trump over all his sexual exploitation of women...?

 

[NotreDame]

No, you are wrong. If I quote a study that finds that 95% of women have brown hair and it is accurate, then a woman chosen at random has a 95% chance of being brown-haired.

Pretty basic....

No.

The statistics you invoked, but not cited to, do not indicate Ms. Ford has a 95% of telling the truth. The statistics you cited cannot logically be used to attest for the trustworthiness in terms of percent for Ms. Ford.

If cancer treatment X results in a 95% survival rate, which means 95% of patients treated with X survive, and patient 134 is getting X treatment, one cannot logically deduce patient 1 has a 95% of surviving.

Third, please cite a link to the study/studies.

 

[joshua 1 9]

Really...? Seems like he’s been the only person who could lay a glove on Trump over all his sexual exploitation of women...?

I think you got this backwards. When people have money the women exploit them. If Trump actually has money or not does not matter, he puts on a show that he has money and for most gold diggers that is enough for them to want to get their foot in the door.

 

[joshua 1 9]

Ms. Ford has a 95% of telling the truth.

He is 100% innocent until proven guilty. It is not enough to accuse people.

 

[Allandavid]

I think you got this backwards. When people have money the women exploit them. If Trump actually has money or not does not matter, he puts on a show that he has money and for most gold diggers that is enough for them to want to get their foot in the door.

Are you suggesting that Kavanaugh is a wealthy person...?

 

[TLK Valentine]

Judging by the revelations today, Dr Ford certainly doesn’t appear to be alone in her claims...

Cue the responses of the "So what if they are?" variety.

 

[MoneyGuy]

We have a saying around my parts.

A red fox may fool a one eyed opossum but a Tom cat never.

We have a saying in these parts:if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.

 

[iluvatar5150]

She is a millionaire today.

Before the movie deals? $2.5 mil

Anita Hill Net Worth

The "movie deal" was a low-budget documentary.

And she's been a lawyer and a law professor for nearly 40 years. Even assuming your $2.5m figure is accurate (there's no source provided for that estimate), any sort of reasonable saving and investment plan would've garnered her at least that much at this stade of her career. I make a fraction of what a lawyer (or even a professor) does; I was broke for most of my 20s, and I'm still on track to have more than that at that age.

 

[joshua 1 9]

Are you suggesting that Kavanaugh is a wealthy person...?

We are talking about Trump. He had a reputation for being wealthy. Enough that the gold digger women would chase after him.