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How Bad Will it Get?

Which of these are likely to happen in 2017 or 2018?

  • Trump cancels Iran nuclear deal.

    Votes: 18 62.1%
  • Trump orders a drone attack on an American citizen.

    Votes: 9 31.0%
  • Obamacare is repealed without a real replacement.

    Votes: 23 79.3%
  • Trump orders a nuclear bomb attack.

    Votes: 8 27.6%
  • At least half of the undocumented immigrants are ordered deported.

    Votes: 15 51.7%
  • The national deficit soars to over double the current deficit.

    Votes: 15 51.7%
  • Trade wars occur, and international trade is reduced over 50%.

    Votes: 15 51.7%
  • The Dow loses over 50% of its value.

    Votes: 10 34.5%
  • Terrorist attacks rise significantly in America.

    Votes: 11 37.9%
  • Trump is impeached.

    Votes: 13 44.8%

  • Total voters
    29
  • Poll closed .

CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN

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This a poll or a Leftist wish list? Personally i'd bet on a new Renaissance, but those on the left would never believe it.

BTW, i didn't vote for Trump.
More like a fear list. I was hoping Trump wasn't as bad. I was hoping he was getting the crazies to vote for him. Now hope has turned into fear.
 
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evoeth

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The problem with a trade war is not that trade falls, it does, but not that dramatically. The real problem is that prices go up. Dramatically. If Trump institutes a 20% tax on Mexican goods, then wherever Mexican goods are on the margin in US markets, expect prices to go up 0-20% depending on how elastic demand is and what prices are in other countries we trade with. Mexican trade won't fall that much unless there's another country we can immediately substitute for.

Generally speaking, in the short run most of the goods mexico makes are not going to be substitutable, so expect higher prices.


As for the dow question, three points. One, nobody uses the dow except reporters and idiots. They use the S&P 500. Two, the real value could fall in a trade war, but the nominal value is likely to go up a little. This is because tariffs are inflationary (see first paragraph). 50% is a bit extreme for just a trade war. Maybe 10-20% for a trade war with mexico. Third point, there are other reasons we can expect the S&P 500 to get hammered. Boomers are retiring en masse now, and many analysts have been calling for lower market values for the next 5 years or so. That could really push the S&P down 30% on its own (again in real terms, not nominal). So a 50% drop is actually realistic, but for a combination of trade war and the natural headwinds of demography. Oh, and by 2022 not 2018.
 
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Armoured

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These are all negative, where are the positive things that WILL happen?

Stock market at 50,000

Jobs for everyone

A great wall

Insurance for all

No terrorist attacks in America

Landslide win for second and third term

Change the constitution to reflect current ideals

One single government controlled news source to eliminate fake news

Special camps to reeducate members of the population that are not on board with us being great again

America as the greatest nation ever!
A cure for baldness and a unicorn in every pot?
 
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doubtingmerle

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These are all negative, where are the positive things that WILL happen?
There is one positive item on the list--"Trump is impeached".
Stock market at 50,000

Jobs for everyone
And a chicken in every pot?

Can you think of a thing Trump will likely do to add significant jobs? I cannot.

A great wall
Why would we need a wall, since more illegal immigrants are leaving than coming in, and since those who come in would most likely still come in if a wall was there.

Insurance for all
And would that be meaningful health insurance?

Because before Obamacare, those with pre-existing conditions or who didn't fall under group insurance had little choice but to buy expensive plans that would drop them if they got sick. How do you think Trump is going to fix this?
No terrorist attacks in America
So far, Trump has made it worse, by banning people from seven countries which were not sources of terror attacks. Meanwhile, countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which were major sources of terror, are allowed in. The ban is going to do nothing but anger people who wanted a peaceful coexistence. One cannot counteract terror by disrupting the lives of thousands of innocents.
Landslide win for second and third term
Third term? How the heck is Trump going to do that? Change the constitution?
Change the constitution to reflect current ideals
Oh, now I should be able to sleep well, Trump will just change the constitution and all will be fine?
One single government controlled news source to eliminate fake news
A state run press with no freedom of an independent press? This is a good thing?
Special camps to reeducate members of the population that are not on board with us being great again
Ah, so Big Brother will tell everybody what they should think? And that is a good thing?
 
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doubtingmerle

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This a poll or a Leftist wish list? Personally i'd bet on a new Renaissance, but those on the left would never believe it.

BTW, i didn't vote for Trump.
No leftist is wishing for nuclear war or economic disaster. Why do you ask?
 
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The Barbarian

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Trump is a narcissist who seems to lack empathy and compassion. While I can't make predictions about specific events, I think his cruel and unchristian policies are going to inflict a lot of pain on many of the people who voted for him.

The destruction of Obamacare will ironically, fall hardest on the groups who voted for Trump. My guess is that republicans have already explained this to him, and we'll see Obamacare II under a different name.

Putting coal miners back to work in the mines is going to be a tougher deal. With oil and natural gas so low in price, coal is just not economical to mine. And the mines have become mechanized, reducing the need for labor.

What happens when the miners realize he had no intention of helping them get their jobs back?
 
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evoeth

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The destruction of Obamacare will ironically, fall hardest on the groups who voted for Trump. My guess is that republicans have already explained this to him, and we'll see Obamacare II under a different name.

Putting coal miners back to work in the mines is going to be a tougher deal. With oil and natural gas so low in price, coal is just not economical to mine. And the mines have become mechanized, reducing the need for labor.

What happens when the miners realize he had no intention of helping them get their jobs back?
Trump is also making the same mistakes when he talks about rebuilding our military. Our military has been changed for today's challenges. It is highly mechanized and specialized. We don't need millions of troops like we did when major nations went to war against one another. Urban combat and small missions are much more the focus now for obvious reasons. And here he is talking about rebuilding our nuclear arsenal and expanding troop levels.
 
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Aryeh

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None, or few of the above. Something will likely happen that concerns, for now, an issue many disagree with - but later will all but beg Trump to do something about.

He is being set up to tell his "opponents," "I told you so."

The first 180 days is significant for numerological reasons.
 
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NightHawkeye

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And the eight years after that when Empress Ivanka takes the throne.

1253036086_ivanka-trump-a.jpg
That's funny.

One would hope that this past election put down the hopes of dynasties for at least a few elections though.
 
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camille70

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If you were a betting men, which of the bets above would you place?

Oh, and have a happy new year, everyone.

Technically we've already had a US citizen killed, though no one will care because her father was of Yemeni descent. A service man also died in the attack. She wasn't the target though, so since it wasn't ordered for her maybe it doesn't count for the poll either?

US Service Member Killed in SEAL Raid on Al-Qaeda in Yemen

Huffingtonpost | 8-Year-Old Daughter Of Anwar Al-Awlaki Allegedly Among Those Killed
 
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doubtingmerle

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Technically we've already had a US citizen killed, though no one will care because her father was of Yemeni descent. A service man also died in the attack. She wasn't the target though, so since it wasn't ordered for her maybe it doesn't count for the poll either?

US Service Member Killed in SEAL Raid on Al-Qaeda in Yemen

Huffingtonpost | 8-Year-Old Daughter Of Anwar Al-Awlaki Allegedly Among Those Killed
Giving the President authority to call a drone attack without putting the person on trial is very scary. With most presidents, the case could be made that they would never do it unless national security is at risk. In Trump's case, I have no assurance that he wouldn't use this on a political opponent overseas or even in America. He would have the resources to thoroughly discredit the victim and make it look like legitimate defense of America. That is what I am worried about.
 
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The Barbarian

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Trump is also making the same mistakes when he talks about rebuilding our military. Our military has been changed for today's challenges. It is highly mechanized and specialized. We don't need millions of troops like we did when major nations went to war against one another. Urban combat and small missions are much more the focus now for obvious reasons. And here he is talking about rebuilding our nuclear arsenal and expanding troop levels.

He wants to fight WWII again. Technology and international realities are different now. We could not have smashed ISIS if we had depended on that technology.

The really crushing blows came in the form of small, precise special forces operations that decapitated their leadership, and in precise air strikes on their ground forces.

The last major tank battles took place when we invaded Iraq, and showed the vulnerability of armor in today's battlefield.
 
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Rion

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Technically we've already had a US citizen killed, though no one will care because her father was of Yemeni descent. A service man also died in the attack. She wasn't the target though, so since it wasn't ordered for her maybe it doesn't count for the poll either?

US Service Member Killed in SEAL Raid on Al-Qaeda in Yemen

Huffingtonpost | 8-Year-Old Daughter Of Anwar Al-Awlaki Allegedly Among Those Killed

More like most liberals won't want to bring it up since it reminds them of the two Americans Obama had droned on purpose. Doesn't help that the plan was drawn up by Barry's administration and Trump just gave the go-ahead. It'll take an American child that has no links to Obama's crimes before most of the media will mention it.
 
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doubtingmerle

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Trump cancels Iran nuclear deal. One of the best things he could do.

How can there be any benefit of canceling the Iran deal? We have a real commitment to getting rid of the capacity to make nuclear bombs, with multi-national support. Up until this point we had the leverage of the international trade embargo, but as that was only temporary until a deal was worked out, you can not rely on having that leverage forever. If we cancel the deal, nobody will support us on a trade embargo, so we lose everything. What would be the point?

Obamacare is repealed without a real replacement. Doubtful - but if so, the worst thing is that I could get better coverage again and at half the current costs

Then why wasn't that happening before Obamacare? We had a massive problem on our hands. Those who were not covered in large group plans were stuck with junk insurance that would drop you if you got sick. Those with pre-existing conditions had no choice but to suffer untreated until the condition got life threatening, then they got care at the ER at others' expense while putting themselves deeply into a debt they could never repay. It is estimated that this caused 20,000 needless deaths every year.

Every advanced country on earth has seen this problem and has done something on the federal level about it. For a long time the United States could ignore the problem since manufacturing and unions were so strong, almost anybody could get a good union factory job with good benefits. Those days are gone. Now that we are in a condition like much of the rest of the world, we are going to need to come to the same conclusion they did, that this requires us to pull together in a united national program to solve the issue.

Trump orders a nuclear bomb attack. It's the hopes and dreams of many on the left, but will not happen.
I find it sad that you would write that. I think you know it is slander and wrong. People on the left do not want a nuclear bomb attack, and are strongly opposed to nuclear war.
At least half of the undocumented immigrants are ordered deported. The deportation of people who came into the country illegally is part of the laws currently on the books - they are laws just not enforced. And yet people have issue with enforcing the laws.
The problem is that we had been letting illegal immigrants in for years, because they performed needed labor in America that nobody else wanted. Now that they have been our (illegal) guests for many years, and have settled in with families, it is simply wrong to send them away where they have no homes, no jobs, no security. If they are peacefully engaged and working here, and paying taxes, there is no benefit to us to kick them out.

The national deficit soars to over double the current deficit. Obama already did that
No sir, this is simply wrong. The total debt doubled, yes. But I was referring to the annual deficit. There has been a huge drop in the annual deficit under Obama. It is sad when people complain about the debt and don't even recognize that. Trump wants to reduce taxes, while greatly increasing military spending and infrastructure spending. The Republican congress watches the purse like a hawk if a Dem is in charge, but freely spends with a Republican in office. I think Trump will easily double the annual deficit, leading possibly to loss of value of the dollar, and even collapse of the dollar.
Trade wars occur, and international trade is reduced over 50%. fake news would have a hey day, but it's not based in reality.
This is a possible prediction, not a statement of what already exists.
The Dow loses over 50% of its value. Like the DOW was going to crash if Trump won the Presidency? Or it was going to crash after the inauguration?
We ain't seen nothing yet. Stocks could be in for a pounding.
Terrorist attacks rise significantly in America. Rise? the left doesn't recognize terrorist attacks - does that mean they will now
Where are you learning about the left? From Faux news?

Perhaps you should talk to people on the left. They recognize that terrorism exists and is a real problem.
Trump is impeached. The hopes and dreams of millions on the left.
Trump is so entangled in business affairs with other countries that can all be seen as payments from other countries and a violation of the constitution. Impeachment is a real possibility, and we would be far better off with a Bush style conservative like Pence in charge instead of an unhinged Trump.
 
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doubtingmerle

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That's funny.

One would hope that this past election put down the hopes of dynasties for at least a few elections though.
Yes, it would have been nice if this election had put someone like Sanders in charge who had no ties with nobility and would have stood for the people.

With people on this thread suggesting changing the constitution and giving Trump a third term, you might want to rethink that statement about dynasties.
 
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doubtingmerle

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None, or few of the above. Something will likely happen that concerns, for now, an issue many disagree with - but later will all but beg Trump to do something about.

He is being set up to tell his "opponents," "I told you so."

The first 180 days is significant for numerological reasons.
How's that again?

Your prediction is about as concrete as the predictions of Nostradamus.
 
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Armoured

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and showed the vulnerability of armor in today's battlefield.
I was going to hit agree until this. But this is simply not true. What was shown was the vulnerability of 2nd generation armour to 3rd gen... but 3rd gen armour is where it's at.
 
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doubtingmerle

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Trump is also making the same mistakes when he talks about rebuilding our military. Our military has been changed for today's challenges. It is highly mechanized and specialized. We don't need millions of troops like we did when major nations went to war against one another. Urban combat and small missions are much more the focus now for obvious reasons. And here he is talking about rebuilding our nuclear arsenal and expanding troop levels.
But think how it will help the military-industrial complex! ;)

I think Trump is trying to start a war. When he says he wants to go in and take Iraq's oil, and when he prevents even our Iraqi helpers from coming over to America, all while we still have troops in Iraq, that is the equivalent of putting a bullseye on every soldier's back. And once the Iraqis shoot, there is no telling where Trump might stop.
 
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