My friend we have reached an impasse of understanding I see.
It seems like it. From my perspective you are trying to avoid essential uncertainty.
(Do you not have trouble with the quantum world?)
Possibly because you see it as far more traumatic and chaotic than it need be.
If Reason is uncertain and not sound, then neither is its product.
Pushed to the limit, it is not.
Under everyday circumstances it does rather well.
Rather like Newton's laws of motion in that respect.
With no reference point, how can probability be established? How can something be closer to true or 'the best we have' if you have nothing to base what is best on?
No absolute, eternal reference point. That's not quite the same thing.
There are plenty of things that serve as foundation points.
Fun in physics at the moment is that two very successful building points don't seem to want to mesh together.
relativity and quantum mechanics. Where and what is quantum gravity?
But this is a long way from being totally lost or having no compass at all.
As to 'ruling things out', heliocentrism was ruled out, then back in, then out again etc. This is no method to base derivitive theory of probability on.
Yes, that's called progress. And it's messy. Almost inevitably with humans involved, and having a basis in observation and measurement, with limits on precision.
(I have the mind of an engineer so "right" is "within tolerance." "Exact" tends to get met with "how exact?"
It's everywhere but usually not consciously noticed. "2" is fuzzy round the edges, is nothing like as tidy and neat as it is commonly taken to be (which, commonly, is fine.) 1.51 or 2.49 might show up as 2 on scales or a spreadsheet. But accumulate them and odd things happen. Say by ten: 15.1 and 24.9 will show up as 15 and 25 on the same scales or spreadsheet. Take out the uncertainty first and it looks as though 10 x 2 = 20. Dead certain and precise. Or not.
Reality rules.
I am speaking metaphysically, so your examples are a bit superfluous.
A metaphysical approach devoid from physical observation is itself rather cut adrift.
Absolutes are easy enough to assert by fiat. It's actually quite popular, though that comes without an absolute consensus, to put it mildly, as to what the absolutes should be, or the authority behind them.
Certainty is elusive here too.
Do you have a proposed methodology for certainty and absolute? I've never found one free from uncertainty.
Though I've looked in a good few places in the past.