MLB 2012 Projections (NL East)

[Tatian]

It's that time of year where we all make our daring analysis and predictions and PROVE how little we know about the game! =)

The NL East

1 Phillies. Probably a no brainer. You could put a high school batting line up behind their rotation and still probably win 85 games is what I heard from one analyst. The best 1,2,3 spots in baseball and the only team that you could argue has a better rotation is the Angels. With them in the AL, this will be no threat to the Phillies continuing their NL East reign. They aren't without their problems, however. They were already middle-of-the-pack in baseball in home runs and worse in hits as a team. I guess you just can't have it all, however. But as mentioned before, with Lee, Hamels and Roy I can't throw an ERA above 2.5 Halladay, they can afford lower run support. They improved modestly but I don't think you will see an increase of wins. Of course, that WOULD be quite difficult after winning 102 in 2011

2 Braves. Despite some solid improvements with the Marlins and Nationals, I still see the Braves taking the next best position in the division. The criticism could be leveled that the recipe for the same September disaster hasn't changed. However, just as career years tend to not repeat, so does disastrous years and a few of them happened. The Braves may have the most difficult rotation to predict sense they have one Veteran, Hudson, who is one of Baseballs most consistent pitchers and kids and injury prone pitchers after him. If they stay healthy, they will have one of the most dominant rotations in the MLB. If not, the Braves will depend on the less tried but very talented Delgado and Teheran who DID at least have some good experience during the collapse in September. The batting line up will fair better than last year, I think. Heyward has a lot of talent and should be given the benefit of the doubt and given another year. Uggla swatted a career high total of homeruns but a career low in batting average. However, he also had a very low BABIP which should balance out and bring his average up to 250-260. Pastornicky at short stop may be the single largest hole in the line up. Without a single MLB at bat to his credit, you probably want to err on the side of caution.

3. Nationals I know there are probably a lot of you picking the Marlins to be better than the Nationals, but I think it's going to come together a bit more with Washington. In the rotation, I think the Nats have a slightly better 1-2 punch, and if the potential expected out of their 3 guy, Zimmerman proves to be true, then it will be that much more significant. However, they even if it doesn't, I still think it's marginally better. They'll hit more homeruns than the Marlins and have a better bullpin.

4. Marlins Really, I won't be surprised if the Marlins, Braves and Nationals are all within 3 games of each other, and 5 games within 1st place. The Marlins will have more speed and will be on base more often than the Braves, Nationals and Phillies. To bad they only have one potent bat to do the job, Mike Stanton. Yes, I know you are probably thinking Morrison hit 23 and Ramirez, 22. Not bad for the post-steroid era, right? Let's just see if Morrison can do it two years in a row. Besides that, his BA was not very attractive so it detracts some.

5. Mets. What a sad story. One of the top 5 payrolls last year and they were a disaster and it only get's worse. The 4 other teams in their division didn't just get better, but the Met's got worse. I don't think Reyes is going to hit better than 320 this year, but that is still quite a loss, as well as the speed on the bases. To get any decent home run support, they may have to move the outfield walls up to the infield, and they have only one proven quality starter with Santana and a closer that won't have to worry about to many of those stressful situations where he has to save a game. The only good news is, they purged some of the debt they have by letting Reyes go. This is the beginning of their rebuilding effort and will probably ONLY get worse before it gets better. Additionally, they are playing in arguably the toughest division in baseball and will only be fodder for the other four teams in the division who you can at least argue a case for making the playoffs. It's a cosmic joke where the Met's with such a sub-par team is packed in such a talented division. Met's fans, you have my sympathy.

 

[TheProject]

1 Phillies. Probably a no brainer. You could put a high school batting line up behind their rotation and still probably win 85 games is what I heard from one analyst. The best 1,2,3 spots in baseball and the only team that you could argue has a better rotation is the Angels. With them in the AL, this will be no threat to the Phillies continuing their NL East reign. They aren't without their problems, however. They were already middle-of-the-pack in baseball in home runs and worse in hits as a team. I guess you just can't have it all, however. But as mentioned before, with Lee, Hamels and Roy I can't throw an ERA above 2.5 Halladay, they can afford lower run support. They improved modestly but I don't think you will see an increase of wins. Of course, that WOULD be quite difficult after winning 102 in 2011

While I agree that the Phillies have to be the favorites in the NL East, in things that could possibly go wrong for them, I would also point out their aging lineup. Their pitching should be extremely good, just like last year, but if it falters much at all, it will expose what I believe will be a middle of the pack offense.

2 Braves.

Despite some solid improvements with the Marlins and Nationals, I still see the Braves taking the next best position in the division. The criticism could be leveled that the recipe for the same September disaster hasn't changed. However, just as career years tend to not repeat, so does disastrous years and a few of them happened. The Braves may have the most difficult rotation to predict sense they have one Veteran, Hudson, who is one of Baseballs most consistent pitchers and kids and injury prone pitchers after him. If they stay healthy, they will have one of the most dominant rotations in the MLB. If not, the Braves will depend on the less tried but very talented Delgado and Teheran who DID at least have some good experience during the collapse in September. The batting line up will fair better than last year, I think. Heyward has a lot of talent and should be given the benefit of the doubt and given another year. Uggla swatted a career high total of homeruns but a career low in batting average. However, he also had a very low BABIP which should balance out and bring his average up to 250-260. Pastornicky at short stop may be the single largest hole in the line up. Without a single MLB at bat to his credit, you probably want to err on the side of caution.

I can see the Braves winning a few more games than last year simply b/c I can't imagine them repeating that horrific September. As a Braves fan, I still hurt from that. Plus, their core is very young and should (not a definite here) continue to improve. You are right on the pitching though. If healthy, they have a great rotation, but that is a big if.

3. Nationals

I know there are probably a lot of you picking the Marlins to be better than the Nationals, but I think it's going to come together a bit more with Washington. In the rotation, I think the Nats have a slightly better 1-2 punch, and if the potential expected out of their 3 guy, Zimmerman proves to be true, then it will be that much more significant. However, they even if it doesn't, I still think it's marginally better. They'll hit more homeruns than the Marlins and have a better bullpen.

I am one of those people that would put the Marlins at 3 (at least). The Nationals will be good, but I think their core doesn't have the experience yet to bring them over the hump from potential to winner.

4. Marlins

Really, I won't be surprised if the Marlins, Braves and Nationals are all within 3 games of each other, and 5 games within 1st place. The Marlins will have more speed and will be on base more often than the Braves, Nationals and Phillies. To bad they only have one potent bat to do the job, Mike Stanton. Yes, I know you are probably thinking Morrison hit 23 and Ramirez, 22. Not bad for the post-steroid era, right? Let's just see if Morrison can do it two years in a row. Besides that, his BA was not very attractive so it detracts some.

If it all comes together, I can see the NL East being a 3 team race between the Marlins, Phillies, and Braves. Again, I would put Marlins at 3 over the Nationals simply b/c I think the Marlins have the value of having more players with experience at the Major League level.

5. Mets.

What a sad story. One of the top 5 payrolls last year and they were a disaster and it only get's worse. The 4 other teams in their division didn't just get better, but the Met's got worse. I don't think Reyes is going to hit better than 320 this year, but that is still quite a loss, as well as the speed on the bases. To get any decent home run support, they may have to move the outfield walls up to the infield, and they have only one proven quality starter with Santana and a closer that won't have to worry about to many of those stressful situations where he has to save a game. The only good news is, they purged some of the debt they have by letting Reyes go. This is the beginning of their rebuilding effort and will probably ONLY get worse before it gets better. Additionally, they are playing in arguably the toughest division in baseball and will only be fodder for the other four teams in the division who you can at least argue a case for making the playoffs. It's a cosmic joke where the Met's with such a sub-par team is packed in such a talented division. Met's fans, you have my sympathy.

What can I say? Oh I know! As a Braves fan that remembers those Braves/Mets races in the late 90's and came to detest the Mets, I can say this:

 

[Tatian]

LOL! No love for our fallen rivals, eh?

I did point out the mediocre hitting of the Phillies. And hey, sense we're on that, how about Howard not coming back to play during the opening month?

The Nationals will have some experience in the club. Ryan Zimmerman has some good years of experience and so has Jayson Worth. Both of them have been in the lime light as stars of their positions who had disapointing years last year. Worth especially, though, as a former Phillie, has seen the playoff's 3 times. Also, their manager, Davey Johnson's been doing this for quite a long time. I imagine you would say it's just not enough, and I can understand that, but we'll just have to see. I think this will be a fun season.

 

[TheProject]

LOL! No love for our fallen rivals, eh?

Even those years when the Braves weren't competitive (06-09), I loved seeing the Mets go down. One particularly great day was that final game of the season when the Mets had to win to clinch a tie with the Phillies (the Phillies had to win as well, and did). The Mets lost to the Marlins with the losing pitcher being...Tom Glavine, who I held a grudge against for leaving the Braves to go to the Mets. That was a good day.

I did point out the mediocre hitting of the Phillies. And hey, sense we're on that, how about Howard not coming back to play during the opening month?

I think Howard is a fading star as evidenced by his declining average and high strikeout rate. He will smack some homeruns, but isn't the star the Phillies envisioned when they signed him to that absurd extension. He will still be missed and I think it will only make their offensive shortcomings more noticeable. A very good month by either the Braves, Marlins, or Nationals could make life tough for the Phillies right out of the gate.

The Nationals will have some experience in the club. Ryan Zimmerman has some good years of experience and so has Jayson Worth. Both of them have been in the lime light as stars of their positions who had disapointing years last year. Worth especially, though, as a former Phillie, has seen the playoff's 3 times. Also, their manager, Davey Johnson's been doing this for quite a long time. I imagine you would say it's just not enough, and I can understand that, but we'll just have to see. I think this will be a fun season.

Your point is valid, but I think that there is just too much riding on their rookies (Strasburg & Harper). I just think that too many piece would have to fall in place right away for the Nationals to be competitive this year. Next year, however, is a different story.

 

[Tatian]

I'm not really thinking of Harper in the equation yet. Still haven't gotten any conclusion whether he will get enough at bats to make a difference. One thing is for certain, though. With all the hype he's gotten, when he does get a full season, if his line doesn't read something like .300 / 30 / 100, it'll be a disappointing rookie season. I exaggerate a little, but you get the idea.

Howard is certainly over rated, but he was all they had. I think you're right. Let's see just how long they actually go without him.

We'll have to remember each other, then, at the end of the season. Either my prediction of talent will put them over or your prediction of lack of seasoning will put them under.

 

[Tatian]

I'm not really thinking of Harper in the equation yet. Still haven't gotten any conclusion whether he will get enough at bats to make a difference. One thing is for certain, though. With all the hype he's gotten, when he does get a full season, if his line doesn't read something like .300 / 30 / 100, it'll be a disappointing rookie season. I exaggerate a little, but you get the idea.

Howard is certainly over rated, but he was all they had. I think you're right. Let's see just how long they actually go without him.

We'll have to remember each other, then, at the end of the season. Either my prediction of talent will put them over or your prediction of lack of seasoning will put them under.

 

[TheProject]

Now, I will say that the wildcard for the Nationals is on the job training. If their kids adapt quickly, it throws everything I said earlier out the window. I'm assuming a pretty good learning curve, but if they come out like a Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, or Buster Posey, all bets are off on what they could do. That is some serious talent they have.