Actually,the world isn't warming

[Chalnoth]

Thank you for looking at this website.

Which of these graphs to you believe ?

Simply presenting graphs means nothing. What data do they use? What regions do they represent? How was the data analysis performed? It looks like, however, this is a comparison between local temperatures and global temperatures. Local temperatures always vary more.

P.S. Upon further inspection, the two graphs are highly misleading. Look more closely: the axis labels on the two graphs are very different! Specifically, the second graph has smaller limits, such that less variation looks like more. Furthermore, I doubt that the second graph goes all the way to 2000, because it completely misses the recent warming.

 

[Greatcloud]

Simply presenting graphs means nothing. What data do they use? What regions do they represent? How was the data analysis performed? It looks like, however, this is a comparison between local temperatures and global temperatures. Local temperatures always vary more.

P.S. Upon further inspection, the two graphs are highly misleading. Look more closely: the axis labels on the two graphs are very different! Specifically, the second graph has smaller limits, such that less variation looks like more. Furthermore, I doubt that the second graph goes all the way to 2000, because it completely misses the recent warming.

Pretend both graphs had good data and were accurate, which graph do you believe to be an accurate representation of the last two thousand years.

 

[Chalnoth]

Pretend both graphs had good data and were accurate, which graph do you believe to be an accurate representation of the last two thousand years.

One is reporting a regional temperature. The other is reporting a global temperature. They can easily both be equally accurate. The only thing I can say for sure is that the second graph is highly inaccurate at the end of it, as it says it goes to the year 2000, but fails to capture the recent variation.

 

[Deamiter]

Indeed, I would have no problem accepting both (if I didn't know the recent temperature in Europe). Of course, I should point out that the top graph might not be global temperature either, the label is only "temperature anomaly." I suspect it refers to a value based on either ice core data or a value calculated using a variety of proxy data, but without a source, that's just speculation.

The label "hockey stick" suggests to me that it's either rather old data or rather new data as we all know that the original graph called a "hockey stick" was originally produced with somewhat inaccurate methods. Of course, the same feature has shown up in data analyzed as recently as this year so while the original graph might have been suspect, the shape of the graph has been repeatedly, independently verified.

Anyway, I suspect it's old data, new data, or a denialist chart trying to smear the result of valid science of the last few years with the problems with the first paper to produce that shape. Of course, that's not based on science, it's just based on what I've witnessed in the last few years of climate science and anti-climate science movements.

 

[DaisyDay]

Neither of the graphs depict the last two thousand years.

 

[Greatcloud]

Already getting freezing temps and snow,bit cooler from last year at this time.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/...-cooling-sign-solar-winds-at-50-year-low.aspx

 

[Chalnoth]

Already getting freezing temps and snow,bit cooler from last year at this time.

It's called winter.

 

[Blayz]

It's called winter.

You reckon greatcloud is aware it is summer in the Southern Hemisphere? Or that snow has never fallen in the tropics?

Is this another aspect of fundie arrogance? "what is happening in my back yard is what is happening everywhere else"?

 

[Greatcloud]

Just saying we are not seeing mild temps all winter, snow is starting early.
The same was true in the S hemisphere too. This is more indication that the global temps have changed and are getting cooler.

Even if it later changes and GW comes again,now we have global cooling. It is in the record already,are you going to wait 10 years to admit it.

 

[Split Rock]

Just saying we are not seeing mild temps all winter, snow is starting early.
The same was true in the S hemisphere too. This is more indication that the global temps have changed and are getting cooler.

Even if it later changes and GW comes again,now we have global cooling. It is in the record already,are you going to wait 10 years to admit it.

Maybe in Oregon, but not here in Wisconsin. It reached 81 F this afternoon. Unusually warm for this time of year.

 

[Greatcloud]

Maybe in Oregon, but not here in Wisconsin. It reached 81 F this afternoon. Unusually warm for this time of year.

Yeah I heard about that but it won't last, in fact you had a cold snap in your area just before that, huh ?

 

[Chalnoth]

Yeah I heard about that but it won't last, in fact you had a cold snap in your area just before that, huh ?

Well, of course it won't last. It's called winter.

 

[eMesreveR]

AAAAAAAAAAAAH!! WHETHER THERE IS GLOBAL WARMING OR GLOBAL COOLING OR NOT HAS NO BEARING UPON WHETHER YOU FEEL IT. THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE WORLD IS WARMING IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES ON AVERAGE. YOU WILL NOT NOTICE THE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE.

THE DANGER IS TO SYSTEMS ON A WHOLE! IT'S TRENDS GOD AAAAAAAAARGGGGH

/frustration

 

[Split Rock]

Yeah I heard about that but it won't last, in fact you had a cold snap in your area just before that, huh ?

We had a brief period of normal Fall weather before Warm temps came back again. My point is that it is useless to try and relate one season's temperatures in one local area to either the argument for or against Global Warming.

 

[Chalnoth]

long rant in caps...

Actually, the global temperature anomaly is currently at around 0.5°C. So yeah, it's definitely not something you can feel in the day-to-day weather.

 

[Greatcloud]

Science Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
Michael Asher

World Temperatures according to the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction. Note the steep drop over the last year.

Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming

Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on.
No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.
A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to wipe out most of the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year's time. For all four sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.
Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn't itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.
Let's hope those factors stop fast. Cold is more damaging than heat. The mean temperature of the planet is about 54 degrees. Humans -- and most of the crops and animals we depend on -- prefer a temperature closer to 70.

Historically, the warm periods such as the Medieval Climate Optimum were beneficial for civilization. Corresponding cooling events such as the Little Ice Age, though, were uniformly bad news

Global cooling sign: Solar winds at 50-year-low
Posted: September 28, 2008, 2:24 AM by Lawrence Solomon Lawrence Solomon, Climate change, global warming, global cooling, NASA, Danish National Space Institute

Lawrence Solomon
In yet another sign that the Earth could be heading in to a period of global cooling, NASA reports that the solar wind is now at a 50-year low, the lowest that NASA has seen. This change in solar activity, which began to occur about a decade ago, coincides with the end of the climb in global temperatures [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]that had been underway for decades.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"What we're seeing is a long term trend, a steady decrease in pressure that began sometime in the mid-1990s," explains Arik Posner, NASA's Ulysses Program Scientist in Washington DC. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"How unusual is this event?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"It's hard to say. We've only been monitoring solar wind since the early years of the Space Age—from the early 60s to the present. Over that period of time, it's unique. How the event stands out over centuries or millennia, however, is anybody's guess. We don't have data going back that far."[/FONT]
As a result of the diminished solar wind, [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]cosmic rays are entering the Earth's atmosphere in greater number. Research at the Danish National Space Institute shows that cosmic rays increase cloud cover on Earth, and that this cloud cover can have a cooling effect. Does this help explain why global temperatures plateaued a decade ago, and why they are now decreasing? Stay tuned![/FONT]
— Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe

 

[TemperateSeaIsland]

Science Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
Michael Asher

World Temperatures according to the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction. Note the steep drop over the last year.

Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming

About the recent data from the Hadley Centre

We have recently changed the way that the smoothed time series of data were calculated. Data for 2008 were being used in the smoothing process as if they represented an accurate estimate of the year as a whole. This is not the case and owing to the unusually cool global average temperature in January 2008, it looked as though smoothed global average temperatures had dropped markedly in recent years, which is misleading.

A significant drop in global average temperature in January 2008 has led to speculation that the Earth is experiencing a period of sustained cooling.
A brief look at the graph depicting January global average temperatures reveals large variability in our climate year-on-year, but with an underlying rise over the longer term almost certainly caused by man-made emissions of greenhouse gases.
There are a number of natural factors contributing to so-called interannual variability, the single most important being the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO. The global climate is currently being influenced by the cold phase of this oscillation, known as La Niña (see Met Office: Expert speaks on La Niña).
The current La Niña began to develop in early 2007, having a significant cooling effect on the global average temperature. Despite this, 2007 was one of the ten warmest years since global records began in 1850 with a temperature some 0.4 °C above average.
The La Niña has strengthened further during early 2008 and is now the strongest since 1988/89, significantly contributing to a lower January temperature in 2008 compared to recent years. In addition, global average temperature has been influenced by very cold land temperatures in parts of the northern hemisphere and extensive snow cover.

However, once La Niña declines, it is very likely that renewed warming will occur as was the case when the Earth emerged from the strong La Niña events of 1989 and 1999.
January 2008 may seem particularly cold compared to January 2007 — the warmest January on record and largely due to the warming phenomenon El Niño — but this merely demonstrates the year-to-year natural variations in our climate.
In future, while the trend in global temperatures is predicted to remain upwards, we will continue to see inherent variability of this kind.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/obsdata/HadCRUT3.html

 

[Chalnoth]

Why are you continuing to peddle this nonsense? Single-year variation does not a trend make. What you're seeing here is not global cooling, just a reshuffling of where the heat in the Earth is: the oceans warmed slightly while the atmosphere cooled slightly. This is the result of a La Nina event. The overall heat of the Earth didn't change much, even though the temperature of the atmosphere near the surface dropped.

The temperature will be right back up with the warming trend very shortly, if it isn't there already.

 

[Greatcloud]

The sun is shutting down solar winds are at a 50 year low. There are no sunspots when one shows up it goes away after a matter of days. What don't you get about that ?

Global cooling sign: Solar winds at 50-year-low
Posted: September 28, 2008, 2:24 AM by Lawrence Solomon Lawrence Solomon, Climate change, global warming, global cooling, NASA, Danish National Space Institute

Lawrence Solomon
In yet another sign that the Earth could be heading in to a period of global cooling, NASA reports that the solar wind is now at a 50-year low, the lowest that NASA has seen. This change in solar activity, which began to occur about a decade ago, coincides with the end of the climb in global temperatures [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]that had been underway for decades.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"What we're seeing is a long term trend, a steady decrease in pressure that began sometime in the mid-1990s," explains Arik Posner, NASA's Ulysses Program Scientist in Washington DC. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"How unusual is this event?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"It's hard to say. We've only been monitoring solar wind since the early years of the Space Age—from the early 60s to the present. Over that period of time, it's unique. How the event stands out over centuries or millennia, however, is anybody's guess. We don't have data going back that far."[/FONT]
As a result of the diminished solar wind, [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]cosmic rays are entering the Earth's atmosphere in greater number. Research at the Danish National Space Institute shows that cosmic rays increase cloud cover on Earth, and that this cloud cover can have a cooling effect. Does this help explain why global temperatures plateaued a decade ago, and why they are now decreasing? Stay tuned![/FONT]
— Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe

 

[Chalnoth]

What I don't get is where that says that temperatures are going to be dropping now.

Earth temperatures lag solar activity by about 10 years, so even if the solar irradiance is dropping right now, that effect isn't going to be felt for a few years out.