but....but what if the other 96% are just...happy?
Why can't we just allow that to be true?
Given that the suicide attempt rate is still pretty high (even after transitioning)
I think it's a stretch to say that 96% are perfectly fine and happy.
While the transition does reduce suicidal ideation by over 30% (which shouldn't be ignored), the baseline suicidal ideation rate is so high that I think it's unrealistic to say "everyone who doesn't detransition must be perfectly happy and content with their decision".
I also think some numbers get conflated here with regards to the conversations about children. With regards to children, the major concern isn't with detransition as much as it is with desistence rates.
While the desistence percentage is likely not as high as the earlier studies had it pegged at (90%) due to some methodology flaws. More current, refined studies (that corrected for many of those methodology flaws) still have that number being over 60%. Which is a high enough number to warrant some caution. Whereas, desistence rates for adults seems to be much much lower.
It would also seem that waiting may even be more prudent now given new surveys and research that's coming out.
UCSF gender clinician Erica Anderson, who is transgender herself, had some interesting findings as well. Of the 25,000 participants in a LGBT+ survey, one third of the participants who wanted to identify as the opposite sex/gender when younger, ended up landing on identifying as non-binary when they got a little older... which adds some considerations to the desistence conversation.
1) Non-binary identity isn't associated with the same usage of surgical and hormonal intervention. (and for the percentage of non-binary who do opt for it, they typically opt for "micro dosing" the hormones, and fewer than 1% of non-binary people seek any sort of surgery.
2) That means there's another desistence path apart from the one people tend to talk about and that maybe needs to be considered. If someone were to go "all in" on surgery and/or hormones at age 16-17 (when they're at a period of life where they're still "finding themselves"), and then realize 5 years later that maybe what they actually are is more in the non-binary realm, they're kind of "past the point of no return" as well if they've already had surgeries.